Politico/GWU Battleground Poll: Obama 49- Romney 48

[ajb]

Great number for Mitt from a top notch firm! Looks like Obama is mired at 47% 49% haha!

FTFY

[ajb]

Key graf:

UPDATE: Politico reports on the poll's top-line: Obama 49, Romney 48 percent. But it is the noteworthy last paragraph from Goeas's memo that we're referring to: "In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory."

Doesn't this sound rather like a likely voter model? Which they've already applied in generating the topline results?

[ajb]

Key graf:

UPDATE: Politico reports on the poll's top-line: Obama 49, Romney 48 percent. But it is the noteworthy last paragraph from Goeas's memo that we're referring to: "In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory."

Doesn't this sound rather like a likely voter model? Which they've already applied in generating the topline results?

Your last point is an interesting and valid one. The same thought occurred to me, but for me to pose it, would do nothing for Mittmomentum, so I repressed the thought. But in my defense, I just knew you would show up to close this particular "donut hole."  Thanks!

Glad to be of service.