I dont care what your political philosophy is, the electorate in a Presidential election is not going to be GOP +4, so no, I'm not paying attention to the Rasmussen tracker.
If we look at the Rasmussen party ID poll history (2004,2006,2008,2010) for the 3 pre-election months August, September and October, on only 2008 August and September, the Rasmussen monthly party ID gap was more Republican than the eventual election exit poll party ID gap. The 2008 August and September numbers didn't have the full impact of the economic collapse yet, and the October party ID (D+7.1) was the same as the exit poll party ID.
rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation
Rasmussen August Party ID gap, [Rasmussen October party ID gap], (exit poll of the November election night)
2010: D+1.2 [D+2.9] (D=R)
2008:
D+5.7 [D+7.1] (D+7)
2006: D+5.3 [D+6.2] (D+2)
2004: D+2.6 [D+1.5] (D=R)
*the poll sample that had more favorable party ID gap for Republicans than the eventual exit poll on bold
So historically, Rasmussen party ID gap has been more favorable to the Democrats than the exit poll party ID gap. Maybe this year is the first time they got the party ID horribly wrong in favor of Republicans on election year, despite of their 15k sample size for the monthly party ID poll, maybe not.
