Alberta 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

I found the Edmonton numbers from the Abacus poll:

PC: 30
WRP: 29
Lib: 20
NDP: 18


They also say that the WRP is ahead in Calgary, central Alberta and in the south, while the PCs are still ahead in the north... I can't find numbers yet.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the Abacus breakdowns

Calgary
WRP: 50
PC: 25
Lib: 10
NDP: 8

Edmonton
PC: 30
WRP: 29
Lib: 20
NDP: 18

North
WRP: 39
PC: 37
NDP: 14
Lib: 7

Central
WRP: 49
PC: 29
Lib: 11
NDP: 9

South (caution: very small sample size)
WRP: 39
PC: 23
NDP: 14
Lib: 14

[Hatman 🍁]

Someone commented on my blog saying they werent going to vote WRP because Smith doesnt have children. I wonder if they were actually some Tory partisan?

[Hatman 🍁]

Analyzing some key races in Calgary: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-analysis-calgary.html

[Hatman 🍁]

By the way Smid, you can stop doing the vote redistribution, Hill and Knowlton have already done so for their election predictor: http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/#/alberta+2012/swing

ETA: There are a few errors in it though, eg Calgary-Shaw and Lacombe-Ponoka gave wrong numbers to the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why is Lacombe-Ponoka 27% NDP on the redistricted riding boundaries?

It's one of the (at least) two errors I've found. I'm going to go through them at some point to see if there are any others. Then, I will make a map

[Hatman 🍁]

lol, oh dear! I should've taken a better look. Oh well, I guess it's back to the drawing board

Why would they advertise "why are the results different?" when they aren't?

[Hatman 🍁]

New poll out from ThinkHQ/CTV: WRP 41, PC 30, NDP 12, LPA 11. If the PCs are about to drop below 30 in the second week...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/wildrose-poised-for-majority-in-alberta-poll/article2391311/

WRP is at 43, not 41.

[Hatman 🍁]

City breakdowns for the Think HQ poll

Calgary
WRP: 47
PC: 29
Lib: 11
NDP: 7

Edmonton
WRP: 31
PC: 30
Lib: 18
NDP: 17

This must mean the NDP is ahead of the Liberals in the rest of the province.

[Hatman 🍁]

City breakdowns for the Think HQ poll

Calgary
WRP: 47
PC: 29
Lib: 11
NDP: 7

Edmonton
WRP: 31
PC: 30
Lib: 18
NDP: 17

This must mean the NDP is ahead of the Liberals in the rest of the province.

Wonder what this will look like in your next projection.

Those breakdowns are fairly similar to the other polls, so not much change, other than a few more WRP seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

Apparently you have to email them to get more of a break down

[Hatman 🍁]

There was a Forum Research poll also released

WRP 43 (+2)
PC 29 (-2)
Lib 13 (+1)
NDP 10 (-1)

Calgary
WRP 48 (+1)
PC 26 (-2)
Lib 14 (+1)
NDP 8 (-)

Edmonton
PC 33 (+3)!
WRP 26 (-5)!
NDP 18 (-)
Lib 16 (-1)

North
WRP 49 (+3)
PC 29 (-)
Lib 9 (+1)
NDP 7 (-2)

South (incl Red Deer)
WRP 57 (+11)!
PC 24 (-5)
Lib 8 (-2)
NDP 6 (-5)

[Hatman 🍁]

There are some PCs who'll survive on their personal popularity. If they lose official party status and Liberals form OO, Sherman will have a good claim to the last laugh.

Except the Liberals will be lucky to win more than a couple of seats.

Anyways, here's my Edmonton analysis (whew!): http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-analysis-edmonton.html

[Hatman 🍁]

The combined WRP + PC vote according to polls is around 70%, so obviously some Liberals have switched their vote. There are also polls that show how 2008 votes are going this time, I'll try to find some examples.

[Hatman 🍁]

Abacus seems to be the most recent pollster to ask about 2008 votes.

People who voted Tory last time
WRP: 52%!
PC: 40%
Lib: 4%
NDP: 3%

People who voted WRP last time
WRP: 81%
PC: 10%
Lib: 4%
NDP: 4%

People who voted Lib last time
Lib: 54%
WRP: 19%
PC: 14% (less than the WRP, so not that much I guess)
NDP: 9%

People who voted NDP last time
NDP: 61%
Lib: 15%
WRP: 15%
PC: 7%

So yeah, not many left of centre votes are going to the PCs yet. In fact, more are going to the WRP. Sounds like 1993, when many populist NDP votes went Reform in the west.

[Hatman 🍁]

Earl, great work on your Edmonton analysis. I guess Ray Martin was from the part of his old riding that got shifted into the new riding where he's competing this election?

Those polls showing vote switching since 2008 would be very interesting!

Not sure about Martin. I don't know why he would switch ridings, AFAIK there's no residency requirements to run, but Alberta might have those rules.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting that over half the PC voters last election are intending to vote PC Wildrose this election!

Corrected for you

[Hatman 🍁]

Sorry, posting craze today... Leger poll

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/05/wildrose-pulling-ahead-of-pcs-in-alberta-election-campaign-poll/

Wildrose: 41
PC: 34
NDP: 12
Lib: 10
Ab party: 2

Quote: The other surprise in the poll is the surge of the NDP in Edmonton.

Edmonton
PC: 37
Wildrose: 25
NDP: 20
Lib: 12

This is the second poll to have the NDP at 20%... Earl, how do you think this will play with your Edmonton prediction if this trend continues?

Those EDM numbers look good for the Tories and the NDP, but I should qualify that 20% is not a surge for the NDP, which got 18% there in 2008.

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger breakdown

Edmonton
PC: 37 (-)
Wildrose: 25 (+2)
NDP: 20 (+3)
Lib: 12 (-4)

Calgary
WRP: 47 (+12)
PC: 34 (-3)
Lib: 11 (-2)
NDP: 7 (-1)

Rest of AB
WRP: 54 (+15)
PC: 30 (-7)
NDP: 7 (-1)
Lib: 5 (-2)

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, the Bloc was able to win seats that were previously marginal due to people who would've  voted NDP strategically voting, allowing the Bloc to win in some odd areas like Ahuntsic. So, the PCs might win some of those previous Liberal-PC races in Edmonton because of that. People who would otherwise vote WRP in some of those seats will vote PC to stop the Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

This is getting pretty disturbing. It's like a reflection of the Tea Party's takeover of the GOP here just in a different party.

Kind of, but I'd the WRP is more like mainstream Republicans, while the Tories (especially under Redford) are like mainstream Democrats.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mormons will go WRP. Almost all of them are in the Taber-Warner-Cardston riding, which might be a plurality mormon, if not a majority. It was the only AA riding back in 2004.

[Hatman 🍁]

Would the Idaho Republicans say the same thing?: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/04/06/albertavotes2012-smith-abortion-response-friday.html

[Hatman 🍁]

I have created an Alberta map gallery, including maps of provincial elections going back to 1997: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/p/alberta.html

I would love to make 1993 and 1989 as well (very interesting elections), but I don't have any maps from those years.

[Hatman 🍁]

Fantastic job, mate!

Thanks. Ive added federal maps to going back to 1997 as well. I'll do more later, if I get the time.