Alberta 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

BTW, CBC did a poll that was released today (first post debate poll that I can see)

WRP: 43 (what else is new?)
PC: 36
Lib: 11
NDP: 9

Big surprise out of Calgary:
WRP: 45, PC 41 (lots of strategic votes from Liberals going to the Tories)
In Edmonton:
WRP 37, PC 31 (huh?)
Rural areas
WRP: 52, PC 31

Not sure how valid this poll is, I'd like to see some more post debate polls

ETA:

Calgary
WRP: 45
PC 41
NDP: 8
Lib: 5

Edmonton
WRP: 37
PC: 31
Lib: 19
NDP: 12 (yeah, right...)

Conclusion: Junk poll

[Hatman 🍁]

New prediction http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-prediction-april_16.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Excellent. Looks like I've already got a few ridings wrong though (read comments). But that's good. People don't complain when you get things right. And I want to get this right.

[Hatman 🍁]

I saw that endorsement, and I gave the NDP candidate a 5 point bump there.

If comments on my blog are any indication, seats where the WRP will win are going to be rather random, and depending on local campaigns. Maybe I should troll the 308.com comments to see what people are saying there, as he gets more comments, and probably many of them (unfulfilled) complaints.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm not sure Earl. Most comments on 308 are stupid mindless hacks who get into trite debates with other hacks, I haven't noticed a lot of more serious complaints about his predictions.

Anyhow, good luck with your predictions. I hope you do better than 308 so that you can prove that UNS/scientific/math-based predictions are stupid.

I've been getting stupid mindless hacks on my site too But, there have been some serious complaints as well. Some of them are "WHY DO YOU HAVE SUCH AND SUCH AHEAD THAT'S NOT WHAT'S HAPPENING", but that's ok, I realize that's how I would probably comment as well if it were someone else's blog.

[Hatman 🍁]

Regarding Lethbridge, keep in mind that the federal NDP got 27% of the vote in 2011 and the federal riding is not just the city of Lethbridge but also includes a lot of rock-ribbed Tory rural areas. The University of lethbridge did a poll of the two Lethbridge provincial seats in February and they had the NDP at 20% in Leth-West back then.

Good to know. I do warn you that a lot of that support was inflated because of the terrible Conservative candidate in the riding. But it is a good point. Outside of the Lethbridge proper, that riding has to be the most right wing in Alberta (or Canada, for that matter) because of all the Mormons.

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum Research Poll

WRP: 40 (-3)
PC: 33 (+2)
NDP: 12 (+1)
Lib: 10 (n/c)

Calgary
WRP: 46 (-4)
PC: 32 (n/c)
Lib: 11 (+3)
NDP: 6 (-2)

*scratches head*

Edmonton
PC: 38 (+6)
WRP: 26 (-3)
NDP: 18 (n/c)
Lib: 13 (-3)

This makes more sense

North
WRP: 41
PC: 32
NDP: 19 (!)
Lib: 5

Tightening up. Small sample size though.

Central
WRP: 50
PC: 30
NDP: 10
Lib: 5

South
WRP: 49
PC: 26
NDP: 10
Lib: 8

[Hatman 🍁]

What's going on? Is it that homophobe's blog comments, stat noise? :puzzled:

Now that I compare it, the last FR poll had the Liberals much lower in Calgary than other pollsters, so that's more of a correction than a gain in support.

[Hatman 🍁]

Do you really expect Calgary to be almost all WRP? I'd expect at least ~5 PC seats in there. I'd expect at least 15 PC seats, just from the Calgary and Edmonton burbs & city, just because of Liberal strategical voting and variance in similar ridings based on dumb things WRP candidates say.

This is part of the fun: Trying to figure out where the WRP wont win. All I can do is use uniform swings in most cases until someone says that there is a reason why a certain candidate will not win.

[Hatman 🍁]

Do you really expect Calgary to be almost all WRP? I'd expect at least ~5 PC seats in there. I'd expect at least 15 PC seats, just from the Calgary and Edmonton burbs & city, just because of Liberal strategical voting and variance in similar ridings based on dumb things WRP candidates say.

This is part of the fun: Trying to figure out where the WRP wont win. All I can do is use uniform swings in most cases until someone says that there is a reason why a certain candidate will not win.

Well you could try to use demographic maps and past voting behavior to see where the bigger swings would happen. Also see which candidates made the news(positive or negative) and give them handicap/penalty swing. Like for example the person I posted earlier in this thread. I guess you will still be off by a lot since you can't asses what's happening on the local level that doesn't make the news.

I could, but that's very time consuming. Plus, most of Calgary is fairly demographically homogenous, so the only thing preventing most ridings from going WRP will be candidate strength. I'm going to let others let me know what's going on. That way, if I get something wrong, I can say "well, so and so said this" or "no one said anything"

[Hatman 🍁]

This is part of the fun: Trying to figure out where the WRP wont win. All I can do is use uniform swings in most cases until someone says that there is a reason why a certain candidate will not win.

At this point, the least-likelies are probably the seats of Mason and Notley, if that can be taken as a hint-hint.

Duly noted

[Hatman 🍁]

I got 9/13 before it started asking the same questions again

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger poll:

I'm not showing the change numbers, because their last poll was the Easter poll that was sh**

WRP: 42 
PC: 36 (highest from a credible poll late March)
NDP: 10
Lib: 9

Edmonton
PC: 35
WRP: 33
NDP: 17
Lib: 13

Calgary
WRP: 43
PC: 40 (ok, so this is sounding a lot more like that CBC poll)
Lib: 9
NDP: 5

Rest:
WRP: 49
PC: 34
NDP: 8
Lib: 6

Poll also shows that 27% of Calgarians will be voting strategically.

[Hatman 🍁]

Analyzing the rest of the seats: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-analysis-rest-of.html

[Hatman 🍁]

What's the most conservative provincial riding in Alberta (by federal Conservative vote)? Cardston-Taber-Warner, the only seat the AA won in 2004? How high would the federal Conservative vote be there?

It might be, but don't look at the 2011 election results to find that out, as the Tory candidate (now MP) ran a non campaign and took a big hit in the polls because of it. Cardston-Taber-Warner has been very open to voting for other right wing parties though. Alberta First got 26% of the vote there in 2001 while Social Credit got 18% in 1997. Both parties were border line fringe at the time.

Interesting with Doug Faulkner in Ft McMurray: a Wildrose candidate who ran for the federal PCs in 2000 and the federal Libs in 2004...

That's true. And now he'll probably finally get elected under a partisan banner (he's been elected before obviously, he's the mayor)

[Hatman 🍁]

Whoa Danielle Smith is actually kind of hot. It's too bad she has to lead such a horrid party.

Just read the "Policy and identity" section of their Wikipedia article; so they're pretty much American Republicans?

As I've said, not quite. Smith is still pro choice and pro same sex marriage.

[Hatman 🍁]

Whoa Danielle Smith is actually kind of hot. It's too bad she has to lead such a horrid party.

Just read the "Policy and identity" section of their Wikipedia article; so they're pretty much American Republicans?

As I've said, not quite. Smith is still pro choice and pro same sex marriage.

Sort of by necessity, though, really.

Hmmm... it would be interesting to see polls on those two social questions in Alberta. I suppose a majority would be in favour of both, but probably not a majority of WRP voters.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-2012-election-final-prediction.html

[Hatman 🍁]

FR has a newer poll that shows very different numbers which came out after my prediction and thus will be ignored.

As for the Liberals, I seem to be the only one projecting they will win ANY seats let alone 4. But, I just couldn't see any other party winning those seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

My hypothesis: That poll was done on Sunday, and many WRP voters are probably religious and wont answer a poll on Sunday. As someone who has called people on Sundays for surveys, I can tell you there are people who get mad at us for calling on Sundays.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just got home. WTF. I will be eating crow tonight.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP ahead in Lethbridge West = awesome.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP ahead in Lethbridge West = awesome.

Sort of out of nowhere. Liberal vote there completely collapsed and NDP % there has ballooned since the last election.


Liberal leader trailing in his riding.

Not unexpected, everyone kept saying they were targeting Lethbridge West. But still, amazing.

[Hatman 🍁]

Rachel Notley sounds just like Andrea Horwath.

[Hatman 🍁]

Disappointing results in Glenora so far.