Canadian by-elections, 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

They'll probably do another one closer to the election.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals did quite well in the area in the 2008 provincial election, perhaps even winning the most votes on the federal boundaries. But, that was their best election in the city.

FWIW, the area was also a strong Nenshi area in the mayoral election. And we're talking municipal election type turnout...

[Hatman 🍁]

If the boundaries were more like the old Calgary Centre, where it included areas on both sides of the river, it would be a better riding for the Liberals to win.

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum was the closest on the Ontario election and they were pretty much spot on for the recent provincial by-elections.  I agree I would be shocked if the Tories lost Calgary Centre nonetheless I think they are more likely to lose there than Durham although I doubt they will lose in either.  Central Calgary is not a left wing riding, but its pretty centrist; its not as conservative as some might think.  If it were a battle between the Democrats and the Republicans, the Democrats would win hands down and likewise between the PCs and Reform Party I think it would go PC.  Also some of it may be local candidate as before the nomination the Tories had a massive lead, but there was a lot of controversy as I believe Joan Crockett is not well liked by local Tories and she also hails from the WRA side, not the provincial PCs so some provincial PCs I've heard are supporting the Liberals so this maybe more a local candidate thing.  Think of it like Indiana and Missouri for the senate races.  Romney easily won both states, but their GOP candidates who were unpopular with the establishment and too extreme lost. 

Umm... the riding already went Reform over the PCs... in 1993 and 1997.

[Hatman 🍁]

lol nice. Would rather the Tories win CC than the Libs. If it were AV my vote would be 1) NDP 2) Greens 3) Tories 4) Liberals

[Hatman 🍁]

lol nice. Would rather the Tories win CC than the Libs. If it were AV my vote would be 1) NDP 2) Greens 3) Tories 4) Liberals

Why did you put the Grits 4th?

Can't have the Liberals winning Calgary Centre

[Hatman 🍁]

Over 50 in Durham, less in CC. Then there are some claiming the Greens will do well in Victoria...

Greens should finish 2nd in Victoria, but their best bet at winning a seat will be CC. A lot of would be Liberal voters pissed off about Trudeau/McGuinty might switch to the Greens.

[Hatman 🍁]

Excellent news. A Liberal win in CC would mean another nail in the NDP coffin.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP should place 2nd in Durham. They have a strong candidate, and it is next to Oshawa after all.  BUT, it is exurban Toronto, which usually is a wasteland for the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

My Victoria by-election guide: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/11/federal-by-elections-part-1-victoria.html

parts 2 and 3 coming within the next ~36 hours.

[Hatman 🍁]

My analysis of Durham is up: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/11/federal-by-elections-part-2-durham.html

[Hatman 🍁]

And finally, Calgary Centre: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/11/federal-by-elections-part-3-calgary.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

I think so. I've never seen it happen though. Whenever I've scrutineered, there is barely anyone around when the polls close. But then again, polls close late in Ontario to accommodate the west. (compare Durham is closing at 9:30 local time and Calgary Centre is at 7:30 local time).

Things are different in the UK, right? I remember huge issues in their last election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Downtown Calgary wont be that blue tonight methinks.

[Hatman 🍁]

Downtown Calgary wont be that blue tonight methinks.

Perhaps not, but there is a huge push on the ground for both Turner and Locke = a split. And you more than anyone else should know that Calgary centre holds not only the downtown core, but large swaths of middle class suburbs, which are the cons bread and butter. Plus the monied mansions along the elbow which are reliably conservative as well.

No matter the results, it's a perfect storm sort of by-election, with a polarizing cpc candidate and two very savvy challengers (the NDP sitting this one out it seems) and a situation not likely to be repeated come 2015.

My point was, not all of Calgary is blue. Just not enough to form any non-Tory federal ridings. Although one could make a gerrymander going from the central part of the city into the McCall area

[Hatman 🍁]

Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

I think so. I've never seen it happen though. Whenever I've scrutineered, there is barely anyone around when the polls close. But then again, polls close late in Ontario to accommodate the west. (compare Durham is closing at 9:30 local time and Calgary Centre is at 7:30 local time).

Things are different in the UK, right? I remember huge issues in their last election.

To those who already scrutineered, does lanes are common, or quite rare?

Depends on the time of day, but I've never seen anything too long.

[Hatman 🍁]

I thought I'd posted this yesterday, but apparently not.  For what it's worth, my prediciton is:

Calgary Centre - Conservative
Durham - Conservative
Victoria - NDP

Those are some pretty brave predictions, Inks

[Hatman 🍁]

http://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts_e.aspx

Tories already up by 9 in Calgary

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals ahead by 10 now in Calgary

[Hatman 🍁]

Question: Why there is a Durham County?
I hope it's not about Lord Durham, the governor of the mid nineteenth century.

Well, it's Durham Region now. Half the riding is in what used to be Ontario County.

[Hatman 🍁]

Crockatts now ahead!

[Hatman 🍁]

All tied up now.

Long time no see

[Hatman 🍁]

Tories back on top.

[Hatman 🍁]

Turnout in Calgary Centre will be lucky to break 25% at this pace.

Surprising considering how close it is...

[Hatman 🍁]

We never know what polls are coming in, unfortunately. Would be nice to have people on the campaigns to let us know.