Canadian by-elections, 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

It's a good result, but you have to admit you predicted a win. Even I predicted ~40%. So, he didn't do as well as we thought.

[Hatman 🍁]

looks like CAQ ate into both parties.

[Hatman 🍁]

CBC New Brunswick did a lot of poll maps for the municipal elections, so this doesn't surprise me.

I can defenitely see a correlation between the NDP 2011 results in the riding and Cardy's numbers. while the share of the vote was similar, Cardy won more polls because of the vote split.

Here is the 2011 NDP map for those who didn't get a chance to read my blog

[Hatman 🍁]

Only way for the NDP to win is a strong Liberal Party showing, and coming up the middle a la 1990. Not going to happen. Plus, the area is not like it used to be... when was the last time Oshawa went NDP?

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, the last time the NDP won Oshawa federally or provincially was 1990. Wow! Same year the rest of Durham went NDP. Weirdness. Of course the margins were different. We got over 60% of the vote in Oshawa, and the other Durham seats were won with around 35%. Breaugh won the seat in a 1990 by-election with 48%. He then lost it in 1993 with only 15%. The closest we've come since was Sid Ryan back in 2004 when he lost by 500 votes. The collapse of the Liberals in 2011 really helped the Tories who actually increased the margin of victory over the NDP. Looks like the NDP can't break 40% in the riding, and need a strong Liberal candidate to have a shot at winning.

[Hatman 🍁]

No chance in Calgary Centre. You might be able to gerrymander a Tory-minority seat in Calgary (something similar to the old Calgary Centre riding that Joe Clark won), but it's not going NDP as is. Even if Joe Clark himself ran for the NDP, he would not win. (btw, he has said some pro Mulcair things recently )

Speaking of which- quiz time: what former federal Tory cabinet minister is a current NDP supporter?

[Hatman 🍁]

David McDonald - who went from being a PC cabinet minister to being Alexa MacDonough's boyfriend?

I was thinking of another McDonald.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think we should even talk about Oshawa in the same breath as Durham. While the NDP has not won Oshawa since 1990 - it has had a popular vote there way above the Ontario average in every election. Durham is more of a dead zone - though in addition to winning there in 1990, the ONDP also won Durham East in 1975!

I don't think its as simple as saying that for the NDP to win Oshawa the Liberals need to be stronger. It depends on HOW they are stronger. I don't think it would help the NDP at all in Oshawa if the Liberals ran some really progressive left-liberal who gained ground by cutting into the NDP vote!!

Quite frankly, i think the reason the NDP keeps hitting the ceiling in Oshawa is that they keep running a succession of "old NDP" candidates who appeal to the CAW crowd but are not all all attractive to all the middle class suburbanistes in Oshawa who do NOT work for GM and who might be open to the NDP if the candidate wasn't always such a throwback to another era. As long as the NDP keeps running people like Sid Ryan and a succession of CAW local presidents they will keep hitting that ceiling. Maybe in 2015 they will find a candidate who the auto workers like but who also has some appeal to the suburban commuters who live in Oshawa who might want a progressive alternative to harper and Co.

You're right, the NDP keeps running duds in Oshawa, but who do you think holds all the NDP memberships in Oshawa? CAW folk. The NDP would win the seat with someone new, but unless Mulcair swoops in and appoints someone, it's not going to happen.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mulcair does not have the power to "swoop in and appoint" anyone in Oshawa and even though the bulk of NDP members in Oshawa may be with the CAW doesn't mean that the candidate has to be an old fashioned union leader. Back in 1968 all those auto workers in Oshawa chose as their federal candidate a political philosophy professor from York University with a passion for John Stewart Mill. His name was Ed Broadbent!

What are the chances of that happening again?

[Hatman 🍁]

Reagan New Democrat? lol

[Hatman 🍁]

In Toronto I call them "Ford New Democrats" - people who voted for Rob Ford for mayor and then turned around and voted NDP federally.

Yes, I've been thinking about this recently. There must be quite a few of those people, especially in places like Scarborough. I would think a lot of them are immigrants, no?

I can't wrap my head around the logic of voting both NDP and for Rob Ford. Well, I can't wrap my head around voting for Rob Ford in the first place. I dont know how someone to the right of the federal Tories could become mayor of that city.

[Hatman 🍁]

After I posted that, I realized it was the gay issue. Still kind of weird considering the NDP's stance on gays. The 2010 Toronto election was almost the same as the 2006 Ottawa election where a bumbling right wing buffoon got elected over a more competent, but gay candidate. (of course our gay candidate was so much better than Smitherman). And I hate to say it, but Rob Ford is slightly more competent than our mayor was. However, Ford is more right wing. 

[Hatman 🍁]

And I hate to say it, but Rob Ford is slightly more competent than our mayor was. However, Ford is more right wing. 

*More* competent?  Didn't realize O'Brien was *that* bad--either that, or you haven't been at the heart of the Toronto scene.

Maybe not, but I couldn't imagine anyone more incompetent than O'Brien. He was a lot like George W. Bush. And boy, when Bush came to down, you should have seen how giddy OBrien was. He was like a hero to him.

[Hatman 🍁]

No, I was there when Ford was elected, I don't think it was so much of a gay issue than it was just the fact that outer-Toronto was trending conservative at the time - just like, in 2011, quite a few ridings in Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough went Conservative.

Well, if one were to paint all Toryism with a common brush.  Look, if Dubyah-keister-kissing is all you can point to as evidence of O'Brien being "worse" than Ford (or maybe more properly, the double-headed monster that is Rob + Doug Ford), you haven't comprehended the fullness of Ford-style ineptitude.  (Indeed, that's been the problem with a lot of Ford's critics over time: that they've offered overly softball generic right-of-centre evil/buffoonery/thuggery comparisons--O'Brien, Mel Lastman, Dubyah, Boris Johnson, Mike Harris, etc...)

Note to Adma: Holmes and I are different people. (I have a light green avatar now ) But, there was more than just Dubya kiester kissing, there were huge gaffes as well. And of course the whole scandal that made him temporarily vacate the office to stand trial. AFAIK Ford hasn't had that happen yet.

[Hatman 🍁]

You could have easily segwayed from municipal politics to Bourque, as I believe he is a former city councillor here.

[Hatman 🍁]

The guy Hatman's talking about. Have you guys decided to rerun your 2011 candidate or not?

Uuuhh, kinda early dontchya think? By-election wont be until the Fall.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ford was good representing his constituents, but was/is terrible representing Toronto. Anyways...

Using Adma's data here are the numbers for the four municipalities.
I'm assuming Adma didn't include advance polls, so I added those in as well.

Uxbridge:
Cons 5699 (56.1)
Lib 2213 (21.8)
NDP 1451 (14.3)
Grn 719 (7.1)
Oth 76 (0.7)

Scugog:
Cons 6051 (56.2)
Lib 2071 (19.2)
NDP 1885 (17.5)
Grn 665 (6.2)
Oth 90 (0.8)

(The NDP had more E-Day votes, but the Liberals finished 2nd due to advance polls)

Clarington
Cons 19628 (53.6)
NDP 8857 (24.2)
Lib 5922 (16.2)
Grn 1713 (4.7)
Oth 471 (1.3)

[Hatman 🍁]

2nd place map:

[Hatman 🍁]

If you take out Uxbridge, you get a better sized riding, so that's what might happen to this district after redistribution (plus perhaps a name change to Clarington-Scugog)

[Hatman 🍁]

Sure, it's a proposal. But, just for one riding

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually, while that makes for a good riding size, it might not happen like that, because:

Pickering--Uxbridge works
Ajax on its own works;
But what to do about Whitby--Oshawa? A little too small for 3 ridings. You can throw in Scugog if you want, but that brakes up Durham (the riding).

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's another tease.

Windsor becomes 2 ridings
then Essex (or Essex West) is created combining LaSalle, Tecumseh, Amherstburg, Essex and Kingsville.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interestingly, the Liberals won some polls in Durham in the provincial election

The Liberals won 3 polls in Newcastle, 2 in Pt Perry, 3 in Uxbridge, 1 in Bowmanville and 4 in Courtice (plus one tie)

[Hatman 🍁]

Just this:

2nd place map:

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm I would be tempted to vote Tory in that by-election (only situation that I would vote "strategically", but if the NDP stands a chance at winning, then I would vote for her. Luckily I am not going to be forced to sell my soul.