Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

[Hatman 🍁]

Much better than the NDP's federal by-election performance here from 2014, so not a bad result. I suspect a lot of Liberals stayed home.

Even thought the NDP lost more of its vote share, the Liberals have to be the big losers here. The resources they threw into the by-election in terms of negative ads, and big names like the new MP and the new PM, and for them to have lost votes. Not a good sign.

I'd say the NDP actually overachieved relative to expectations--it was commonly presumed they were flirting with lost-deposit territory.

Oh, and AFAIK this was John Turmel's lowest vote total, *ever*.

Yes, this is indeed true (I helped compile his results on his Wiki page)

And judging from the Elections Ontario site, looks like they *really* streamlined the W-O polling map--only 76 polls altogether?!?

Yeah, I checked the map, there are far fewer polling divisions. They did the same thing in BC, which is why I didn't make any maps, because I couldn't find the polling divisions in time.

Frankly, if this is a sign of where polling maps are going (an echo of Toronto's present "polling station = polling division" pattern?), it ain't gonna be as much fun following elections in the future...

It makes sense for by-elections at least, knowing they will be low turnout. Why spend more money on staff than they need to? It makes mapping less fun true, but let's be rational here.

[Hatman 🍁]

It makes sense for by-elections at least, knowing they will be low turnout. Why spend more money on staff than they need to? It makes mapping less fun true, but let's be rational here.

Yeah, "rational" like abolishing the mandatory long form census.  Seriously, if the future is one of advance-poll-scaled mega-polling divisions with 1000+ registered voters, how is that supposed to help ground crews or anybody else (including sociologists, urban-studies types, etc) for whom the fine worms-eye electoral detail of sanely-scaled polls is beneficial?  It'd be like suggesting that the only "polling divisions" that matter are the omnibus figures for the neighbourhoods in your W-O profile.  No.  They.  Aren't.

It's not at all like abolishing the long form census. But anyways, I'm sure a compromise can be had. Maybe have separate ballot boxes for the same poll workers. You can save money on fewer workers but maintain the polling granularity.

Interestingly, municipal election polling divisions are also quite large. Again, this is likely due to smaller turnouts.

[Hatman 🍁]

My profile of today's by-election in Victoriaville: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2016/02/victoriaville-quebec-mayoral-by.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like Bellavance will win easily, he has a massive lead with 41/89 polls reporting.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results:

Andre Bellavance: 9219 (75.3%)
Andre Guillemette: 1522 (12.4%)
Gilles Lafontaine: 1270 (10.4%)
Simon Roux: 235 (1.9%)

Turnout: 34.2%

[Hatman 🍁]

There was a by-election in Saint-Hyacinthe as well, for District 7 (Saint-Sacrement) councillor to replace Brigitte Sansoucy who was elected to the House of Commons for the NDP:

Annie Pelletier: 101 (20.6%)
Danny Laroche: 98 (20.0%)
Donald Poirier: 91 (18.6%)
Patrick Robert: 81 (16.5%)
Frederic Brillon: 73 (14.9%)
Jeannot Caron: 34 (6.9%)
Marcel Delage: 12 (2.4%)

Turnout: 12% ! so low for a three vote win.  

[Hatman 🍁]

Today is the big by-election in Edmonton's Ward 12. A record 32 candidates are on the ballot to replace Amarjeet Sohi who was elected to the House of Commons for the Liberals.

I know the NDP establishment are backing Nav Kaur. The Tories I believe are endorsing Danisha Bhaloo, while former MP Brent Rathgeber is backing Don Koziak. Another strong candidate will be Laura Thibert, a local Catholic School Board Trustee.

The ward covers the southeastern corner of Edmonton, containing the eastern part of the Mill Woods area and the Ellerslie area. The area has a large Indo-Canadian population.

The area went heavily NDP in last year's provincial election (almost 60%). It's usually a Liberal/PC seat though.

[Hatman 🍁]

So the Tory vote will be split? Excellent.

[Hatman 🍁]

Disappointing results...

Moe Banga: 2359 (17.8%)
Laura Thibert: 1283 (9.7%)
Sandhu Arundeep Singh: 1106 (8.3%)
Irfan Chaudhry: 950 (7.2%)
Nav Kaur: 888 (6.7%)
Danisha Bhaloo: 843 (6.3%)
Preet Toor: 665 (5.0%)
Sam Jhahh: 612 (4.6%)
Rakesh Patel: 542 (4.1%)
Brian Henderson: 541 (4.1%)
Balraj Singh Manhas: 466 (3.5%)
Dan Johnstone: 436 (3.3%)
Mike Butler: 371 (2.8%)
Yash Sharma: 334 (2.5%)
The rest: 1883 (14.2%)

[Hatman 🍁]

Today is the final day for voting in St. John's' Ward 4 by-election. The election is being conducted exclusively by mail, so I expect a very low turnout.



The ward was vacated when its councillor, Bernard Davis was elected to the Newfoundland House of Assembly last fall.

There are five candidates.
-Sheilagh O'Leary - ran for mayor in 2013 and for the NDP in a 2014 by-election. She is also a former city councillor
-Jill Bruce - "parent representative"
-Debbie Hanlon - former city councillor
-Janet Kovich - former constituency assistant in St. George's-Stephenville East. Probably for Joan Burke (PC), though it could be for Scott Reid (Lib).
-Matthew White - accountant

The race will likely be between Bruce and O'Leary. O'Leary's recent partisanship might hurt her. Nice to see 4/5 candidates are women though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Awesome result, O'Leary wins!

Sheilagh O'Leary: 2725 (53.29%)
Jill Bruce: 959 (18.75%)
Debbie Hanlon: 876 (17.13%)
Matthew White: 293 (5.73%)
Janet Kovich: 261 (5.10%)

Turnout: 34.5% (not bad, either!)

[Hatman 🍁]

Lac-Beauchamp District by-election results:

Jean-François Leblanc: 689 (38%)
Caroline Desrochers: 578 (32%)
Liza Lauzon: 447 (25%)
Gabriel Céré: 107 (6%)

Turnout: 17%

Seat was vacated when Stéphane Lauzon was elected to the House of Commons for the Liberals (in a neighouring riding I might add).

Leblanc's win is a bit of surprise, as he is a businessman with low name recognition, running as an independent. Desrochers was the candidate of Action Gatineau, the party of the mayor (and the only party in the city), which has a minority of council seats. Even with the loss, it's an improvement over the 26% they got in Lac-Beauchamp in 2003. Liza Lauzon, the third place candidate is the daughter of Stéphane Lauzon who is the outgoing councillor.

[Hatman 🍁]

Former Toronto Mayor and current city councilor, Rob Ford lost his battle with cancer.

Toronto only has by-elections for school board, don't you know. Because school board by-election are sooo much more important and worth the $$$

[Hatman 🍁]

Toronto only has by-elections for school board, don't you know.

That is not true. Toronto has had several byelections to fill vacancies on city council. The rule is that if the vacancy occurs in the first half of the municipal term, there is a byelection. If its in the second half, its up to council whether to have a byelection or appoint a replacement for the rest of the term - we are currently less than a year and a half into this four year term - so there will be a byelection to replace Ford.

Ahh, I hadn't known that. I just remember the fight over it last time.

[Hatman 🍁]

Obvious tory hold. Wonder how well the Liberals can do in a by-election though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Calgary-Greenway results by neighbourhood in recent elections:

(Neighbourhoods from south to north; maybe Njall can talk about their demos?)

Applewood Park
2015 Prov. NDP 43.3%; PC 34.1%; WRP 22.6%
2015 Fed. Cons 55.1%; Lib 31.8%; NDP 7.5%; Oth 5.6%
2016 By-e: PC: 34.4%; WRP: 28.2%; NDP 16.6%; Lib 7.8%; Oth 11.8%

Abbeydale
2015 Prov. NDP 47.0%; PC 27.0%; WRP 26.9%
2015 Fed. Cons 53.2%; Lib 33.5%; NDP 8.3%; Oth 5.1%
2016 By-e: WRP: 33.5%; PC: 30.7%; NDP 15.6%; Lib 8.3%; Oth 12.0%

Monterey Park
2015 Prov. PC 41.1%; NDP 38.2%; WRP 20.7%
2015 Fed. Lib 46.1%; Cons 43.6%; NDP 5.7%; Oth 4.5%
2016 By-e: PC: 33.6%; WRP: 23.6%; NDP 18.1%; Lib 16.2%; Oth 8.7%

Coral Springs
2015 Prov. PC 45.8%; NDP 35.5%; WRP 18.7%
2015 Fed. Lib 61.7%; Cons 32.4%; NDP 3.3%; Oth 2.6%
2016 By-e: PC: 30.0%; NDP 25.1%; WRP: 23.0%;  Lib 17.8%; Oth 4.2%

Taradale
2015 Prov. NDP 42.1%;  PC 35.1%; WRP 22.9%
2015 Fed. Lib 56.6.1%; Cons 29.4%; NDP 8.5%; Oth 5.6%
2016 By-e: Lib 41.6%; NDP 20.7%; PC: 19.5%; WRP: 15.9%; Oth 2.5%

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks Njall.

Looks like South Asians are more likely to vote Liberal. Having no Liberal on the ballot last year is probably why there was a lower turnout in that election compared to 2011.

Looks like the NDP did better among lower income people in 2015, but this evaporated in the by-election. The NDP dropped 32 points in Abbeydale!

Abbeydale, the Whitest neighbourhood was the best for Wildrose in both elections. Probably was a large swing from the NDP there.

Coral Springs, being the wealthiest neighbourhood was the strongest neighbourhood for the PCs last year, but in the by-election it was the poorest neighbourhood that gave the PCs the best result. Weird!

[Hatman 🍁]

Charts and a map for today's by-election: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2016/04/chicoutimi-by-election-charts-and-maps.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Winnable? Maybe. The federal Liberals would've won it (barely):

[Hatman 🍁]

Swings:

PQ: +12.2%
PLQ: +0.6%
CAQ: -5.7%
QS: +1.5%

Two party swing: +5.8% (PLQ to PQ)

Turnout: 41.1%

[Hatman 🍁]

Two more costly by-elections for the TDSB and they won't even be on the same day.

[Hatman 🍁]

Two more costly by-elections for the TDSB and they won't even be on the same day.

really? could they not be? the Toronto-Centre one has not been called. Who calls them?

http://www1.toronto.ca/wps/portal/contentonly?vgnextoid=21193fab14970410VgnVCM10000071d60f89RCRD

Toronto Centre: June 20
York Centre: July 25

[Hatman 🍁]

What difference does it make whether those school board byelections are on the same day or not? They are in two totally different parts of the city, there are no cost savings i can think of...

- You can share advertising costs. One ad with information on both by-elections, instead of two separate ads.

While at the subject,
You might need to change the title since Winnipeg has 3 separate school board by-elections for Saturday June 11/2016.  
If you are wondering, Winnipeg has 6+ separate school divisions.

Two of vacancies  were the results of the recent provincial election, and one was the result of a trustee being fired after moving to another school division.

- Louis Riel  - Ward 2 (Colleen Mayer, won the the St Vital seat for the PCs)
- St James James - Assiniboia - King Edward Deer Loge Ward (Scott Johnston, won the St James for the PCs)
- River-East Transcona - Ward 3 (Wayne Ritcher fired for moving to another school division)

Thanks for this. For the title, I'm only including "major" local by-elections. I'm excluding school board elections for all cities except Toronto because school board by-elections tend to get less than 5% turnout while in Toronto they get a bit of a attention for some reason.  (I also excluded a by-election on Monday in Seguin Twp., Ontario, pop. 4,000)

However, that's not to say we can't discuss these Winnipeg school board by-elections. Why does Winnipeg have six boards to begin with?

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks, Poirot. We've missed some Quebec municipal by-elections, but there are still some coming up:

May 1: Sainte-Adèle mayoral by-election (and 2 council by-elections)
May 15: Council by-elections in Baie-Comeau and Val-d'Or
May 22: Brownsburg-Chatham mayoral by-election (and 2 council by-elections)

[Hatman 🍁]

Why the TDSB holds school board by-elections while more important offices like city council have to have by-elections approved by council makes no sense.