2018 Ontario election

[Hatman 🍁]

A lot of unknowns right now, but:

Ajax: PC/Lib toss up
Algoma—Manitoulin: Safe NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill: Likely PC
Barrie—Innisfil: Safe PC
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte: Safe PC
Bay of Quinte: Safe PC
Beaches—East York: Liberal/NDP toss up
Brampton Centre: 3-way toss up
Brampton East: Safe NDP (if Jagmeet runs)
Brampton North: PC/Liberal toss up
Brampton South: PC/Liberal toss up
Brampton West: PC/Liberal toss up
Brantford—Brant: Safe PC
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound: Safe PC
Burlington: Safe PC
Cambridge: Safe PC
Carleton: Safe PC
Chatham-Kent—Leamington: Safe PC
Davenport: Liberal/NDP toss up
Don Valley East: Likely Liberal
Don Valley North: PC/Liberal toss up
Don Valley West: PC/Liberal toss up
Dufferin—Caledon: Safe PC
Durham: Safe PC
Eglinton—Lawrence: PC/Liberal toss up
Elgin—Middlesex—London: Safe PC
Essex: Safe NDP
Etobicoke Centre: PC/Liberal toss up
Etobicoke—Lakeshore PC/Liberal toss up
Etobicoke North: Likely Liberal
Flamborough—Glanbrook: Safe PC
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell: Likely PC
Guelph: Likely Liberal
Haldimand—Norfolk: Safe PC
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock: Safe PC
Hamilton Centre: Safe NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek: Safe NDP
Hamilton Mountain: Safe NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas: Likely PC
Hastings—Lennox and Addington: Safe PC
Huron—Bruce: Safe PC
Kanata—Carleton: Safe PC
Kenora—Rainy River: Safe NDP
Kiiwetinong: Safe NDP
King—Vaughan: PC/Liberal toss up
Kingston and the Islands: Likely Liberal
Kitchener Centre: PC/Liberal toss up
Kitchener—Conestoga: Safe PC
Kitchener South—Hespeler: Safe PC
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex: Safe PC
Lanark—Frontenac: Safe PC
Leeds—Grenville: Safe PC
London—Fanshawe: Safe NDP
London North Centre: 3 way race
London West: PC/NDP toss up
Markham—Stouffville: Likely PC
Markham—Thornhill: Likely Liberal
Markham—Unionville: Safe PC
Milton: Safe PC
Mississauga Centre: PC/Liberal toss up
Mississauga—Cooksville: PC/Liberal toss up
Mississauga—Erin Mills: PC/Liberal toss up
Mississauga—Lakeshore: PC/Liberal toss up
Mississauga—Malton: PC/Liberal toss up
Mississauga—Streetsville: PC/Liberal toss up
Mushkegowuk: Safe NDP
Nepean: Likely PC
Newmarket—Aurora: Safe PC
Niagara Centre: Likely NDP
Niagara Falls: PC/NDP toss up
Niagara West: Safe PC
Nickel Belt: Safe NDP
Nipissing: Safe PC
Northumberland—Pine Ridge: Safe PC
Oakville: Safe PC
Oakville North—Burlington: Safe PC
Oshawa: PC/NDP toss up
Ottawa Centre: Liberal/NDP toss up
Ottawa—Orléans: PC/Liberal toss up
Ottawa South: Likely Liberal
Ottawa—Vanier: Safe Liberal
Ottawa West—Nepean: PC/Liberal toss up
Oxford: Safe PC
Parkdale—High Park: Likely NDP
Parry Sound—Muskoka: Safe PC
Perth—Wellington: Safe PC
Peterborough: PC/Liberal toss up
Pickering—Uxbridge: PC/Liberal toss up
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke: Safe pC
Richmond Hill: PC/Liberal toss up
St. Catharines: PC/Liberal toss up
St. Paul's: Safe Liberal
Sarnia—Lambton: Safe PC
Sault Ste. Marie: Likely PC
Scarborough—Agincourt: PC/Liberal toss up
Scarborough Centre: PC/Liberal toss up
Scarborough—Guildwood: PC/Liberal toss up
Scarborough North: Likely PC
Scarborough—Rouge Park: 3 way toss up
Scarborough Southwest: 3 way toss up
Simcoe—Grey: Safe PC
Simcoe North: Safe PC
Spadina—Fort York: Liberal/NDP toss up
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry: Safe PC
Sudbury: 3 way toss up
Thornhill: Safe PC
Thunder Bay—Atitkokan: Liberal-NDP toss up
Thunder Bay—Superior North: Liberal-NDP toss up
Timiskaming—Cochrane: Safe NDP
Timmins: Likely NDP
Toronto Centre: Liberal-NDP toss up
Toronto—Danforth: Safe NDP
University—Rosedale: Liberal-NDP toss up
Vaughan—Woodbridge: PC/Liberal toss up
Waterloo: Likely NDP
Wellington—Halton Hills: Safe PC
Whitby: Safe PC
Willowdale: PC/Liberal toss up
Windsor—Tecumseh: Safe NDP
Windsor West: Safe NDP
York Centre: Likely PC
York—Simcoe: Safe PC
York South—Weston: Liberal/NDP toss up
York West: Liberal/NDP toss up

[Hatman 🍁]

If the Tories are doing as well as polls show they are doing in Toronto, then she is toast. But I suppose it depends on what kind of voter Brown is attracting in Toronto? Is it the wealthy anglo saxon John Tory type PCer or is it the more working class/minority Ford nation type? The Liberals normally do well with both groups, but the Tories have done well with the former group historically. The recent by-election win in Scarborough suggests they are making inroads with the latter.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa Centre should be orange in that last map