Ontario 2018 election

[Hatman 🍁]

Rosedale actually makes up a small percentage of University-Rosedale. If the NDP can win the rest of the riding by ~10%, they should be able to win the seat. I figure they probably will end up doing so.

As for Eglinton-Lawrence, it will probably go PC at this point, but something to remember is that Doug Ford didn't do very well there in the mayoral election for whatever reason.

[Hatman 🍁]

Rosedale is east of Yonge Street, though the area between Yonge and Avenue isn't exactly NDP-friendly.

[Hatman 🍁]

Using Kyle Hutton's transposition, I get:

Lib: 49.1%
PC: 23.1%
NDP: 22.2%
Grn: 3.9%
Other 1.7%

Must be including Pickering-Scarborough East or something.

[Hatman 🍁]

It is really hard to wrap one's brain around what an NDP majority map would look like. It would involve winning some seats that would seem like huge surprises. This feels like in 2011 trying to figure out what seats the NDP were going to win in Quebec (tuns out, most of them).

I think it will have to entail the Liberal vote tanking a bit more (5-10%) as well as the Tory vote tanking in more populist ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it would involve a near (or complete) whipe out of the Liberal Party, but here are 63 seats (what is needed for a majority) the NDP could win. Some of these are a bit far fetched, but one has to suspend their disbelief a bit if this is going to be possible.

1. Ottawa Centre
2. Ottawa—Vanier
3. Bay of Quinte
4. Kingston and the Islands
5. Peterborough—Kawartha
6. Durham
7. Oshawa
8. Brampton Centre
9. Brampton East
10. Brampton North
11. Brampton South
12. Brampton West
13. Mississauga—Malton
14. Scarborough Centre
15. Scarborough—Guildwood
16. Scarborough North
17. Scarborough—Rouge Park
18. Scarborough Southwest
19. Don Valley East
20. Beaches—East York
21. Davenport
22. Parkdale—High Park
23. Spadina—Fort York
24. Toronto Centre
25. Toronto—Danforth
26. University—Rosedale
27. Humber River—Black Creek
28. York South—Weston
29. Hamilton Centre
30. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
31. Hamilton Mountain
32. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
33. Niagara Centre
34. Niagara Falls
35. St. Catharines
36. Brantford—Brant
37. Cambridge
38. Guelph
39. Huron—Bruce
40. Kitchener Centre
41. Kitchener South—Hespeler
42. Perth—Wellington
43. Waterloo
44. Chatham-Kent—Leamington
45. Essex
46. London—Fanshawe
47. London North Centre
48. London West
49. Sarnia—Lambton
50. Windsor—Tecumseh
51. Windsor West
52. Algoma—Manitoulin
53. Mushkegowuk—James Bay
54. Nickel belt
55. Sault Ste. Marie
56. Sudbury
57. Timiskaming—Cochrane
58. Timmins
59. Kenora—Rainy River
60. Kiiwetinoong
61. Thunder Bay—Atikokan
62. Thunder Bay—Superior North
63. Toronto—St. Paul's

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it would involve a near (or complete) whipe out of the Liberal Party, but here are 63 seats (what is needed for a majority) the NDP could win. Some of these are a bit far fetched, but one has to suspend their disbelief a bit if this is going to be possible.

...

Yeah, that really would be the end of the Liberals, with even Vanier and St. Paul's gone.  Obviously a tall order.  But Vanier probably is the #2 potential seat in Ottawa for the NDP, and I do see St. Paul's going NDP if forced to choose, particularly with Ford leading the PCs.

But yeah, this sort of the "dream" scenario for the NDP.

Under this scenario, perhaps the Liberals might just hang on to Don Valley West. Not exactly their safest seat, but perhaps their safest seat against an NDP surge in particular.

I added St. Paul's at the end in attempt to think of a final 63rd riding. The riding is fairly progressive leaning, and much of it did go NDP in the past, especially in 1990.

[Hatman 🍁]

With a 5 point average swing in 2011 from the Libs to the NDP, the Liberals would've lost Scarborough-Guildwood, Markham-Unionville, Kingston to the Cons, and Ottawa-Vanier to the NDP.  They would've been reduced to Ottawa South, Scarborough-Agincourt, Toronto Centre, York West, Etobicoke North and Guelph.

Additionally, the NDP would've only picked up Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Sault Ste. Marie from the Conservatives.

So, the NDP would've only won 25 seats, and the Liberals would've been reduced to just 6.

This kind of proves how hard the map is for the NDP. Outside of the north and core urban areas, they face a difficult ceiling that a small wave would not hit. However, if they get past that ceiling, the dominoes start to fall.

[Hatman 🍁]

What's the likelihood of Oshawa being the NDP's "Sault Ste. Marie 2011"?

Kenora-Rainy River is the most likely to flip PC (no incumbent)
London West is another possibility (PC candidate is terrible though)
I think the Tories are also targeting Niagara Falls.
Niagara Centre may flip PC (no incumbent), but it's a long shot.
Timmins is also a dark horse PC flip, and it's similar to the Soo in that it's an urban Northern riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

I doubt the NDP would be ahead in Spadina-Fort York and only tied in Davenport.

[Hatman 🍁]

EKOS is out.

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/997688156035141632

PC - 39.1%
NDP - 29.8%
Lib - 23.3%
Green - 5.4%
Oth - 2.4%


Lots of other tables on Twitter at @VoiceOfFranky, but so far no regional breakdown or Best Premier numbers.

We did have regional breaks, but I guess they weren't published. The NDP currently leads in the Southwest, North and Hamilton/Niagara. I think we still have the Liberals leading in Toronto, but just barely.  The Tories lead everywhere else.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are our regional numbers (warning: margin of error is around 10 for each subsample):

North: 38-31-26
SW: 42-37-10
Georgian Bay: 47-23-23
Grand River: 32-31-28
Hamilton/Niagara: 37-31-20
Halton/Peel: 47-28-18
York/Durham: 44-36-16
Central Toronto: 34-32-32
Suburban Toronto: 36-28-24
E&C Ontario: 44-24-21
Ottawa: 45-29-21

NDP leading in Grand River. Tories actually ahead in Toronto, 34-32-28. Liberals behind the Greens in SW (caveat: margin of error)

[Hatman 🍁]

If the NDP is leading "Southwest" would they pick up any non London/KWC/Brant seats?

My/our definition of SW does not include KWC or Brant (they're in Grand River). Possible NDP targets are Chatham-Kent-Essex and Sarnia-Lambton.

[Hatman 🍁]

The latest EKOs poll had a sample size of 1,100 or so...wouldn’t some of these regions have hefty very small subsamples?

yes, hence the caveat about the margin of error.

Most of the regional numbers are consistent with our previous poll which had over 2K+ respondents though. The only weird results are the NDP doing so well in York/Durham and the Liberal & Green numbers in the Southwest.

[Hatman 🍁]

Strange that the NDP has a larger lead among 'centrist' voters than 'left wing' voters.

[Hatman 🍁]

Strange that the NDP has a larger lead among 'centrist' voters than 'left wing' voters.

I don't think a lot of voters realize how radical the NDP is. Doug Ford is a man of reason, and the liberal biased media is not going to change my mind nor the minds of others. I'm in a traditionally liberal district, but I can tell the PCs will pick it up easily. London-Fanshawe is the only area in my backyard I see going NDP, which Teresa Armstrong picked up by 27 points in the last election.

If you think London-Fanshawe is the only riding the NDP is capable of winning in 'your backyard', you need to stop posting in this thread, because you're delusional.

[Hatman 🍁]

Am I right in thinking pretty much all the cities in Ontario Taht aren't Toronto or Ottawa (or Guelph) are basically post-industrial and fairly poor? Windsor, Oshawa, London, Niagara, Hamilton, Barrie etc. This could be totally wrong, I'm just trying to test my assumptions.

Not exactly, and especially not compared to the US.

Some of those cities you listed are far from 'post industrial'. Niagara Falls has always been reliant on tourism (perhaps you're thinking of Niagara Falls, New York?) and Barrie is basically one giant Toronto exurb.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is Niagara Falls that much in decline? When we went last year, it was not exactly a ghost town. It's true, the giant closed down, dilapidated Planet Hollywood loomed over the tourist area, and the Skylon Tower kinda looked old and sad, but it has some nice areas too.

What was kind of surprising was how run down St. Catharines is. The lakefront is rather nice, but the downtown was very depressing.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa-Vanier is very clearly the #2 target seat in Ottawa. In 2011, they came within 10 points of winning it. And it is not demographically similar to the rest of the city at all (it has very rich neighbourhoods, very poor neighbourhoods, middle class, ethnic enclaves, student ghettos, inner city neighbourhoods, gentrification, post-war suburbs, etc.. whereas the rest of the city is mostly middle class suburbia)

I live in Ottawa South, and while the campaign has been more visible here than usual, it's still a hopeless cause.  The NDP almost always gets ~13% of the vote here, even with strong candidates. They got 18% in 2011 with the orange surge, so I'd imagine the NDP should get around ~25% of the vote this time, tops. Not enough to win.

Also an interesting tidbit about Ottawa South: some of the NDP swings are wild depending on what ethnicity the candidate is. If the NDP runs a Muslim, they will get ~30% of the vote in some of the ethnic polls, but if they run a White candidate they will lose almost all of that vote to the Liberals. There was one poll in Heron Gate where they went from 32% in the 2011 election to 0% in the 2013 by-election (and that was a visible campaign with a strong candidate).

[Hatman 🍁]

In the case of Barrie, it is without question the most conservative city with over 100,000 people.  That can easily be explained as it lacks the type of things that would make other cities progressive.

1.  Weak union movement
2.  No university or college
3.  Very white

Barrie is also basically a giant exurb of Toronto, so that makes it fairly conservative too. I wouldn't agree it's the most conservative 100K+ city in Ontario though. Surely that distinction belongs to Whitby or Milton or Cambridge?

[Hatman 🍁]

Ipsos:
NDP: 37
PC: 36
Lib: 23
Source: https://globalnews.ca/news/4222975/ontario-election-pcs-ndp-tied-ipsos-poll/?utm_source=NewsletterBarrie&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=2018

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is a table showing the 2014 eDay results (no advance or special polls) for the largest municipalities in Ontario:

Municipality	LIB	PC	NDP	GRN
Toronto	48.8%	22.9%	22.7%	3.9%
Ottawa	45.1%	33.5%	14.2%	6.2%
Mississauga	49.7%	28.2%	15.8%	3.2%
Hamilton	32.4%	22.2%	38.3%	5.3%
Brampton	39.9%	22.3%	32.4%	3.5%
London	26.7%	26.1%	40.4%	4.7%
Markham	48.2%	35.5%	11.3%	3.3%
Vaughan	51.2%	34.1%	10.6%	2.2%
Kitchener	38.1%	27.3%	26.7%	6.1%
Burlington	43.2%	36.5%	14.7%	4.2%
Oakville	48.6%	37.1%	9.2%	3.8%
Windsor	28.4%	13.8%	51.2%	4.4%
Greater Sudbury	31.0%	12.6%	52.0%	3.8%
Richmond Hill	46.7%	36.4%	11.7%	3.3%
Oshawa	19.8%	30.7%	45.5%	3.9%
St. Catharines	38.4%	29.1%	27.4%	3.9%
Guelph	40.7%	20.4%	18.3%	19.9%
Whitby	33.0%	40.2%	22.0%	4.4%
Barrie	40.5%	35.1%	17.1%	6.6%
Kingston	40.4%	20.5%	31.4%	7.2%
Cambridge	38.7%	31.0%	23.1%	5.9%
Waterloo	30.4%	26.0%	37.6%	5.2%
Thunder Bay	55.3%	9.3%	28.7%	3.5%
Ajax	51.5%	27.7%	17.1%	3.1%
Chatham-Kent	23.7%	37.7%	31.9%	5.0%
Milton	43.6%	36.3%	15.1%	3.6%

Ahh, so Whitby is indeed #1, followed by Oakville, Burlington, Chatham-Kent, Richmond Hill, Milton, and then Barrie.

Thunder Bay is the most Liberal, Gr. Sudbury the most NDP and Guelph the most Green.

Do you have municipal results for other elections?

[Hatman 🍁]

I would suggest perhaps not overanalysing subsamples.

^^^^

This is especially true for opt-in online panels.

[Hatman 🍁]

I would suggest perhaps not overanalysing subsamples.

^^^^

This is especially true for opt-in online panels.

When will Ekos have its next poll.  It seems IVR show NDP momentum but PCs still clearly ahead while online show them tied so nice to get some more IVR to see if just Mainstreet is off or if methodology is causing the discrepancy.

We are not currently in field.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP is at 30% in Eastern Ontario if the Ipsos poll is correct.  Would that mean anything beyond Ottawa Centre and Kingston or would it just result in a lot of wasted votes?

I actually think they will get closer to 25 percent, but that's basically true. Maybe Ottawa-Vanier and Peterborough-Kawartha if they surge further but not right now.

Bay of Quinte is another possibility. Though I'd consider it and Peterborough to be in "Central Ontario".

[Hatman 🍁]

Those Liberals east of Wonderland Rd will totally vote PC just like they did west of Wonderland Rd... oh wait...