Ontario 2018 election

[Hatman 🍁]

To be fair, the area east of Wonderland Rd is quite a bit more wealthy. Still though, many of the wealthier parts of London West still voted NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume. 

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

In Canadian politics, there's no such thing as a "structural advantage" because there aren't many core supporters of parties. I wouldn't count out the NDP winning Willowdale or Etobicoke Lakeshore. The latter is very unlikely, the former is somewhat unlikely but it's far from impossible - Wynne is about as unpopular of a figure as I've ever seen in my time following politics. When this happens, you don't start rambling about "structural advantages".

Hmm.

Well, Etobicoke-Lakeshore does have some NDP history. Not in Willowdale, though. Interestingly, Olivia Chow did a lot better in Willowdale than the NDP usually does. It is an area that is seeing an influx of people moving in to live in the Yonge Street corridor.

[Hatman 🍁]

What was the overall (%) result in what the pollsters call Northern Ontario in 2014? With the Liberals in third, should the NDP make gains in Thunder Bay?

Using the proper definition (i.e. not Parry Sound) of Northern Ontario (which is what I use at EKOS), the 2014 numbers were:

NDP: 42%
OLP: 35%
PC: 18%

By the way guys, we just into field again yesterday and... wow... we're seeing some movement.

[Hatman 🍁]

What was the overall (%) result in what the pollsters call Northern Ontario in 2014? With the Liberals in third, should the NDP make gains in Thunder Bay?

Using the proper definition (i.e. not Parry Sound) of Northern Ontario (which is what I use at EKOS), the 2014 numbers were:

NDP: 42%
OLP: 35%
PC: 18%

By the way guys, we just into field again yesterday and... wow... we're seeing some movement.

Could you please risk getting fired and give us #'s?

Old news.  Your boss beat you to it a couple of hours ago.

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/999648270090579969

Oh, I know. That's why I feel safe telling everyone.

[Hatman 🍁]

Frank Graves has already hinted NDP has a strong lead which would be huge if true and suggests a surge going on.  Will also be interesting to see mainstreet's numbers but at the moment I think an NDP win is looking more and more likely.  Not certain, but growing.

Here's what I will leak: the pre-weighted numbers show a tie.

[Hatman 🍁]

One more important caveat: we have been in field for just one night.

[Hatman 🍁]

One more important caveat: we have been in field for just one night.

Also how many respondents?  If say only 100 or 200 it might be due to large margin of error.  If 400-500 more likely to be in the ballpark.

More than 500.

[Hatman 🍁]

Meh. The PCs were probably going to sweep the city anyways.

[Hatman 🍁]

Meh. The PCs were probably going to sweep the city anyways.

If they are winning all these seats in GTA, only way I can see NDP making up for this is pick up a whole bunch of rural Southwestern Ontario ridings.  Certainly possible although recent history shows pretty strong Tory base, but when you start polling in high 30s parties win places they wouldn't expect.

I've already posted the seats I think the NDP would win to form a majority, and it only included on Mississauga riding (Malton). Replace that with Oxford or Elgin or Whitby or Kitchener-Conestoga or Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, and there you go.

[Hatman 🍁]

I had done a transposition of the mayoral vote a while ago, but never posted it. King of Kensington keeps mentioning Tory Liberal seats, so here are the top John Tory ridings:

1) Don Valley West: 68%
2) Eglinton-Lawrence: 60%
3) Toronto-St. Paul's: 57%
4) Spadina-Fort York: 49%
5) University-Rosedale: 49%
6) Willowdale: 48%
7) Etobicoke-Lakeshore: 47%
8 ) Beaches-East York: 46%
9) Don Valley East: 45%
10) Toronto Centre: 44%
11) Etobicoke Centre: 44%
12) Parkdale-High Park 44%
13) Don Valley North: 43%
14) Toronto-Danforth: 42%

[Hatman 🍁]

I had done a transposition of the mayoral vote a while ago, but never posted it. King of Kensington keeps mentioning Tory Liberal seats, so here are the top John Tory ridings:

1) Don Valley West: 68%
2) Eglinton-Lawrence: 60%
3) Toronto-St. Paul's: 57%
4) Spadina-Fort York: 49%
5) University-Rosedale: 49%
6) Willowdale: 48%
7) Etobicoke-Lakeshore: 47%
8 ) Beaches-East York: 46%
9) Don Valley East: 45%
10) Toronto Centre: 44%
11) Etobicoke Centre: 44%
12) Parkdale-High Park 44%
13) Don Valley North: 43%
14) Toronto-Danforth: 42%

Out of those:

Safe NDP:
Parkdale-High Park
Toronto-Danforth

Safe (as much as they can be) Liberal:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

TCTC (Liberal/PC)
Willowdale
Eglinton-Lawrence
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Don Valley East
Etobicoke Centre
Don Valley North

TCTC (Liberal/NDP) :
Beaches-East York


So, if the Liberal vote collapses totally, PCs can get an extra 6 seats here.  Add another 4-5 Scarborough seats and Etobicoke North, and they have a majority.

I would classify the below as TCTC OLP/NDP, Lean-NDP
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

These are swing progressive ridings, not solid Liberal as detailed on previous pages. The only Solid Liberal area is Rosedale, which represents probably less then 40% of University-Rosedale.

My call for OLP seats:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Don Valley North
Eglinton-Lawrence
Scarborough-Guildwood
... my TCTC is Willowdale.

The problem with your logic is that if the Liberals manage to hold on to a seat like Don Valley North (which they won with a 20 point difference), they should  much more easily hold on to Toronto Centre, which they won with 40 points.  There is no logical reason for voters to abandon the Liberals for the NDP in the inner-core ridings and NOT abandon them for the PCs in places like Don Valley North, Willowdale or even Don Valley West. As @mileslunn said, a wave is a wave.

I'd advise you to look at the 2011 transposition of federal results in Downtown Toronto to see what an 'orange wave' looked like. The NDP almost won Toronto Centre on its current boundaries. And that was only with 26% of the province-wide vote. And they don't have an incumbent either.

Anyway, since our client leaked it, here are the results from our poll:

https://twitter.com/russianbot3001/status/999754392554225669

[Hatman 🍁]

lol Forum.

Well, off to work soon. Can't wait to see what our numbers say!

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, some very interesting results this morning. *taps on nose*

[Hatman 🍁]

Just putting this out there:

Fed 2011 Toronto Centre Transposed result...

Lib: 39%
NDP: 36%
Cons: 18%

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, some very interesting results this morning. *taps on nose*

When will they be released?

I dunno. I haven't even seen Frank today.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, some very interesting results this morning. *taps on nose*

When will they be released?

I dunno. I haven't even seen Frank today.

Update: I would estimate that we'll have something this afternoon.

[Hatman 🍁]

these kinds of smears happened in the 2015 Alberta election. They didn't really get any traction back then either.

[Hatman 🍁]

DL. I agree that these probably won't have any lasting impact, but re the Ottawa Centre guy; the point is less about that local race and more about the image of the party. I doubt it would have made much difference where Lake of Fire guy had run for example.

Quite frankly I think it would help the NDP knowing threre is some ideological diversity on the issue of faith based school boards.

[Hatman 🍁]

Our numbers are out: 36-35-20

[Hatman 🍁]

I do have regional numbers, but I think we're going to wait for some more cases before releasing them, as they are quite small (they are really designed for 2000 cases) [read: I'm not confident with the breaks right now]. I might share something on Monday.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

I'm sorry, which polling firm do you work for again? I said before the surge. There were a lot of ridings the NDP was competitive in when they were leading the polls that totally evaporated in the month before the federal election.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

I'm sorry, which polling firm do you work for again? I said before the surge. There were a lot of ridings the NDP was competitive in when they were leading the polls that totally evaporated in the month before the federal election.

I heard you the first time, but 12.1% before, or after the surge is still just 12.1%.  And in my book, to move votes from 12.1% to 45-50% in unison takes something extraordinary, something I do not yet see in this election.  We will agree to disagree here.

What gave you the impression that I work for a polling firm?

That was just me being a snarky dick.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

I'm sorry, which polling firm do you work for again? I said before the surge. There were a lot of ridings the NDP was competitive in when they were leading the polls that totally evaporated in the month before the federal election.

I heard you the first time, but 12.1% before, or after the surge is still just 12.1%.  And in my book, to move votes from 12.1% to 45-50% in unison takes something extraordinary, something I do not yet see in this election.  We will agree to disagree here.

What gave you the impression that I work for a polling firm?

But lets look at the context of 2011 vs 2015

NDP - 23%/12%  -11
Liberal - 20%/50% +30
Cons - 52%/34% - 18

Big shifts can happen here, its not out of scope to say the NDP can win here now when in 2015 the Liberals went from third to winning and gaining 30%. The NDP momentum now is not that far off of the Trudeau momentum in 2015.

It certainly CAN happen.  I am just sceptical, with the PC vote pretty much holding steady in the polls, about Bay of Quinte being that riding.  I am sure that the majority of former Liberal voters in the riding prefer the NDP to the PC, and I am sure that some of them will actually even bother enough to come out and vote for the NDP.  But the leap from there to the conclusion that NDP would have enough votes to win, against an incumbent who won the old Prince Edward Hastings riding with 60% last time, would imho require the PC numbers to start falling significantly.

In my book, NDP would have to take 4 or 5 Ottawa ridings, before they start taking rural ridings in the East, like this one, and I am not yet seeing any indication of that happening.  Tbh I am not even convinced yet that they can take Ottawa Centre from Naqvi.

Bay of Quinte isn't particularly rural. 75% of the population lives in either Belleville or Quinte West (Trenton).

[Hatman 🍁]

Not that I'm saying it'll matter in the end, but Bay of Quinte is the most likely seat the "poppy" issue will cost the NDP - if there's one.

I saw The National Post made something over that.  Maybe they should stop posting articles from disgraced convicted felon Conrad Black before they judge other people.

Is he still relevant? I know he went apesh*t when Bob Rae got elected and maybe single handily played a role in bringing down the NDP government. How will Bay Street react if the NDP wins this time?