Iceland parliamentary election (user search)
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politicus
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« Reply #100 on: April 12, 2013, 08:22:26 AM »
« edited: April 12, 2013, 11:07:24 AM by politicus »

IP seems desperate:

"Chairman of the Independence Party Bjarni Benediktsson says he might be stepping down from the upcoming elections, according to an interview last night on RÚV.

The Independence Party’s numbers are down according to the most recent Gallup polls, coming in at just 18.9%. In addition, a recent survey published by Viðskiptablaðið shows that the party’s popularity would increase with Vice Chairwoman and former mayor of Reykjavík Hanna Birna Kristjánsdóttir as leader. Incidentally, Bjarni’s popularity has risen slightly since revealing that he may step aside, Vísir reports".

Benediktsson will announce his decision either today or tomorrow.

Viðskiptablaðiðs survey asked for public support to individual politicians and whether people would rather vote for the Independence Party if Hanna Birna Kristjánsdóttir was party chairman. It showed that almost half of those intending to vote for the Progressive Party would vote IP if Hanna Birna K. was chairman of the party. So this might be a game changer.



HBK is a moderate like Benediktsson, but a lot tougher and centrist voters probably think she can keep the Christian Right types and Libertarians in check. Her middle class background might also be more appealing than blue blood Bjarni B.

This is the first time I have ever heard an opposition leader (or any party leader for that matter) announce in the middle of an election campaign, that he might be stepping down. It’s absurd. Either you step down or you carry on. I can’t honestly see how Benediktsson can backtrack at this point, even if he wants to.
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politicus
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« Reply #101 on: April 12, 2013, 12:48:56 PM »

A study of the recent MMR poll has shown that 30 out of 63 seats would go to candidates who have never been in parliament before if the seats where allocated according to it. Lots of rookie MPs and perhaps less clientilism and backroom deals, or at least one can hope so.
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politicus
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« Reply #102 on: April 13, 2013, 08:35:52 AM »
« Edited: April 13, 2013, 06:46:31 PM by politicus »

IP leader Bjarni Benediktsson has decided to stay on as party chairman!



At a meeting he told a group of party members that:

"I am absolutely convinced that it was right to open this discussion and talk about things just as they are. And under these conditions, the special conditions, which offer nothing a man can hide under. Under these circumstances, I have searched my mind. [...] I have found there is nothing I or the Independence Party can do, but to continue to fight to the end."

(my translation using google translate so it might not be totally correct)

Guests at the meeting were apparantly satisfied with the decision of Bjarni as much applause followed. He said he had an unfailing faith in the partys ability to strengthen its position significantly in the time to come, but only so long as the party and party members stand together "as one man".

The whole thing is really weird to me. Wonder if this stunt really will silence his internal critics? And how will the voters react? Apparantly he hopes they will reward his straight talking honesty, but I doubt it.

HBK was apparantly "annoyed" with the entire discussion. I dont thing she wants to lead IP in a major defeat. Getting the leadership after a defeat will put her in a much stronger position.
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politicus
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« Reply #103 on: April 13, 2013, 11:31:36 AM »
« Edited: April 15, 2013, 07:32:01 AM by politicus »

No less than 15 parties will be running in the election. 11 nationally, 2 small leftist parties (the Humanists and Peoples Front of Iceland) in the two Reykjavik constituencies and 2 other parties in just one constituency - the Rural Party i NV-Iceland and Sturla Jonsson (named after the party's founder - Icelands most famous truck driver) in Reykjavik South.


Sturla Jonsson - Who wouldnt want to vote for this guy?

I made a mistake regarding Democracy Watch. Democracy Watch and the Iceland Democratic Party are two names for the same party, a centrist group in favour of the new constitution with many moderate Conservatives. Most of the founders were in the Constitution Council (see my earlier description of IDP and the constitution post). Its correct that they are a splinter group from Dawn.
 
Also, Dawn still has a couple of social liberals left, so its not a pure left wing party (but mainly leftists).
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politicus
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« Reply #104 on: April 13, 2013, 02:04:12 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2013, 06:55:10 PM by politicus »

That fella has the old Liberal Party logo under his picture.

The Liberal Party merging into Dawn struck me as really odd.

I guess I could see some libertarian types joining a vaguely anti-establishment party. Just the name "Liberal Party" though, it suggests establishment much more than it suggests libertarianism.
It was clearly a folksy anti-establishment party in the mold of the Progressive Parties in Denmark and Norway (combining populism, libertarianism and xenophobia). It was mainly a protest movement against the fishing quotas, but also pro civil liberties and against clientilism and the corrupt elite.

Liberalism often means Libertarianism in Scandinavia. Liberal Alliance in Denmark is Libertarian.

The weirdest thing in connection with their participation in Dawn is that the Liberals were also slightly xenophobic. But this never entered Dawns platform.

The Libertarianism of those parties is kind of a faux Libertarianism, since they say they want low taxes and small government, but also support welfare (but only for "normal", hard working people).

Answers to a questionaire in 2009:

The Liberal Party - In Their Own Words

The Liberal Party was originally founded to fight the unjust fishing quota system law that was passed by Alþingi (parliament) in 1991 and the party's objective has always been that Iceland's habitants have a righteous and fair fisheries control, as fisheries are the nations fundamental industry. In the current economic situation, The Liberal Party emphasizes the abolishment of the quota system to fight unemployment.

The Liberal Party also emphasizes the importance of professions that increase the influx and circulation of foreign currency, e.g. tourism, codfish farming, and mussel farming. Furthermore, the Liberal Party places emphasis on those professions that preserve national currency, such as grain farming, vegetable farming and handcraft.

The Liberal Party has always fought for abolishing loan indexation, pointing to the fact that the current system is directing homes into heavy debt. Therefore, The Liberal Party has put forth a bill to Alþingi to limit price-increase compensation to avoid mass bankruptcy of the public.

The Liberal Party believes that the nation, as a whole, has an unconditional right to a complete revaluation of the countries administrational branch and its economy. Cliquishness due to political-ties and nepotism must be rooted out with critical and honest methods.

The Liberal Party is the only party in Parliament that has never been a part of government, and now expects this to change. It is necessary that The Liberal Party's standpoints are a part of the heavy work ahead in our country. The Liberal Party has courage and boldness to tackle the matters that need to be dealt with. The money that has been made away with has to be returned to the nation, regardless of the time and effort needed to make that happen.


Briefly describe the party’s general agenda using one sentence.

The Liberal Party wants a society characterized by equality and justice, where free members of the community are active and responsible participants in society’s development.

How does the party plan to help Icelandic companies?

Fight for lower interest rates and that the banks start giving businesses normal loans again. No business can handle the current cost of capital and unemployment will rise even more if no action is taken.

How does the party plan to help Icelandic homes?

Abolish price indexation and partially write off the publics housing loans by passing a law on temporary accounts for the rest of the year. This way it is possible to determine write offs from actual real estate prices, which have been going down while loans have been going up.


How can Iceland regain trustworthiness in the eyes of foreign investors and creditors? How can Iceland prevent becoming isolated in the global village?

By negotiating contracts with foreign lending institutions regarding joint ownership, of up to 1/3, of the now government owned banks, we need foreign financial resources into our banking system.


What is your party’s stance on the European Union?

National (domestic) resources are a priority for Iceland and therefore Iceland should not join the EU.


Who is responsible for the Icelandic economic collapse and the problems Iceland now faces? Does your party share any of the responsibility?  

The plunderers in the group of so called “investment Vikings” receiving excessive salaries and those political parties in government in the last years. The Liberal Party was not member of government in the last 10 years. The Independence Party led the government and held both the Prime- and Financial Ministries. They wanted free flow financials, and they slept on their guard. Shame on them for their apathy and inaction!


What is your party’s stance on constitutional change? Should we assemble a constitutional parliament, or are there other ways?

We want to change the constitution and we support the bill regarding that. We also support ideas of a constitutional assembly.


It is given that the Icelandic state needs to initiate many cutbacks in the near future. Where should those be imposed, in your opinion, and are there any fields that should be “exempt” from such cutbacks?

Surely, cutbacks will be required when laying out our national budget because the treasury's revenue has decreased by billions after the financial collapse. It is essential to cut back and adjust in all fields, but at the same time, guard the welfare system and ensure good health services, while effectively cutting back. Foreign- and defense affairs should be contracted as much as possible, and we should rely more on police and coast guard as security measures for Icelanders in the future. Military leaning ideas should be put aside in current tribulation. Cutbacks alone are not an option. Creating new jobs with all means possible is essential and thus increases the nations income.
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politicus
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« Reply #105 on: April 15, 2013, 01:05:06 AM »
« Edited: April 15, 2013, 07:57:19 AM by politicus »

Höskuldur Þórhallsson, one of the most influential Progressive Party MPs, has said that the Progressive Party should be open to working with the left wing. When asked whether they could form a government with the left he said that:

"I think it is a unique opportunity to form a centrist and welfare focused government".
"What makes all the difference to the Progressive Party is working with people who are willing to take the steps which the party has emphasized in its campaign".

Then he backtracks a little:
"But whether it's on the left, the center or to the right, it will only happen after the elections".

Still its the first time a prominent PP politician has implied so openly, that they consider leaving IP out in the cold after a PP win. It makes sense policy wise, but they would be setting IP up for a major comeback in the next election, if they do it.
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politicus
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« Reply #106 on: April 15, 2013, 02:38:02 AM »
« Edited: April 15, 2013, 04:27:04 AM by politicus »

On the note of Icelandic politics, I just wanted to remind everyone that this video exists and is still hilarious.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxBW4mPzv6E
Yeah, I guess the video was allright, but like all joke parties/candidates once they get into office and have to be serious they tend to be even more boring than established parties. Now the more serious part of BP have transformed itself into a social liberal greenie, pacifist (in a country without an army... Tongue) party called Bright Future (almost a parody on the Best Party name), with a campaign theme about how the tone in Icelandic politics should be nicer and more civil and they are even pro-EU. Not that there is anything wrong with that (well, apart from the EU thing...), but its all pretty cafe latte/PC/bourgeois (take your pick).
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politicus
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« Reply #107 on: April 15, 2013, 02:09:01 PM »
« Edited: April 17, 2013, 04:57:36 AM by politicus »

Rural seats will still be the cheapest in this election which is going to benefit PP. Even with an extra seat to the SW Constituency a seat will cost 4.858 votes around Reykjavik and 2.668 in rural North West Iceland and 2.905 in the PP heartland in the North East (in the hypothetical scenario where everybody votes). A seat in SW will cost 82% more than in the NE, but last time it was 105%, so its an improvement. The urban/rural balance is now 35/28 seats = 60%/40%.

A total of 237 957 Icelanders can vote - around 13 000 of them living abroad.

Suðvesturkjördæmi (South West - basically outer part of the greater Reykjavik area + ex-urbs)
 •2003 - 11 þingmenn: 4.442 voters per seat
 •2007 - 12 þingmenn: 4.549
 •2009 - 12 þingmenn: 4.850
 •2013 - 13 þingmenn: 4.858
 
Norðvesturkjördæmi (North West)
 •2003 - 10 þingmenn: 2.122
 •2007 -   9 þingmenn: 2.347
 •2009 -   9 þingmenn: 2.366
 •2013 -   8 þingmenn: 2.668
 
Reykjavíkurkjördæmi suður (Reykjavik South)
 •2003 - 11 þingmenn: 3.885
 •2007 - 11 þingmenn: 3.945
 •2009 - 11 þingmenn: 3.977
 •2013 - 11 þingmenn: 4.109
 
Reykjavíkurkjördæmi norður: (Reykjavik North)
 •2003 - 11 þingmenn: 3.890
 •2007 - 11 þingmenn: 3.980
 •2009 - 11 þingmenn: 3.980
 •2013 - 11 þingmenn: 4.142
 
Suðurkjördæmi: (South)
 •2003 - 10 þingmenn: 2.837
 •2007 - 10 þingmenn: 3.070
 •2009 - 10 þingmenn: 3.250
 •2013 - 10 þingmenn: 3.364
 
Norðausturkjördæmi: (North East)
 •2003 - 10 þingmenn: 2.732
 •2007 - 10 þingmenn: 2.789
 •2009 - 10 þingmenn: 2.836
 •2013 - 10 þingmenn: 2.905
 
On average a seat costs 3.777 votes if 100% votes, so maybe around 3.000 IRL.
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politicus
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« Reply #108 on: April 15, 2013, 02:28:17 PM »
« Edited: April 16, 2013, 05:26:11 PM by politicus »

New poll from MMR with increased support for IP after their dip to 18,9% and abysmal support for SDA. Its conducted 11.-14. April, which makes it a bit unreliable since many of the respondents probably thought HBK was going to replace Bjarni Benediktsson as IP leader. The Pirates seems to be getting most of the protest votes again after their recent dip to 5,6%. I put the MMR poll from a week ago in (). Dawn has reeemerged out of the blue and probably taken some votes from the Left Greens.


PP 32.7% (30.2%)

IP 22.9% IP (21.2%)

Pirates 9.0% (7.8%)

Left Greens 6.7% (8.1%)

SDA 10.4% (12.7%)

Bright Future 9.5% (9.2%)

Dawn 3,6% (1.4%)

Democracy Watch 3,0% (3,0%)

Right Greens 1,0% (2,7%)

Households Party 0,6%

Rural Party 0,6%

People Front of Iceland 0,1%

Others 0,1%



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politicus
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« Reply #109 on: April 16, 2013, 08:40:24 AM »
« Edited: April 16, 2013, 09:00:17 AM by politicus »

This extract from an article by Icelandic journalist and development worker Stefan Jon Hafstein is from 2011, but is a good explanation of the basic dynamics in Icelandic politics.

(some of the leftists in here will probably say that this is the way the system is everywhere, but Iceland is, like Greenland, definitely clientilistic to a much greater degree than most of Western Europe)

"I thought for a long time that Iceland with its strong democracy and the newly independent states in Africa and elsewhere were incomparable. But the more stones were rolled over in the aftermath of the crash, and onwards to this day, while more and more disgusting things turned up, the more I thought of the similarities to the African situation.
 
Where do men empty banks? Where are the resources put into the hands of a few people? Where are the state delivered to a gang of "brothers"? Where are foolish contracts signed with foreign multinational corporations? Where was the Cold War used for enrichment of a few chosen ones?"
 
In the article Hafstein compares the family relations in Icelandic society - where men treat the resources of society as loot that chiefs hand out to those who show them loyalty - to African politics.
 
He doubts that the crisis can be attributed to neoliberalism, as is often heard in the debate:
 
"All though this period was characterized by a singleminded Liberalism, which is scary".

"Inequality was on a big increase in Iceland at the time, but it was not based on ideological liberal incentives in their own right".

"Still, three years after the collapse, the Icelandic Left fights Liberalism when they should focus on corruption. For it is the essence of the Icelandic way.

The Icelandic corruption works through the tribal system where political rulers treat resources and other kind of assets as loot which they distribute to those who show loyalty to them".

"It would appear that in our uniform and small nation there are ideal conditions to avoid the distress of many African nations - tribal division (tribalism). According to this tribe comes first, then village, place, relatives and friend groups. Abstract concepts such as "the public", "transparency", "administration" "decentralization" is a sign of a much more mature communities where you have put the regulation of relations in a political, economic, social and cultural framework. But in reality Iceland is much closer to the tribal community. This we see in the behavior of our political parties, with regional providers through the "local syndrome" whose loyalty to the herd comes before ideological conflict or merit. Loyalty is a prerequisite to get the benefits of output.
 
Local princes is clearly characteristic of such systems. Leadership depends on your allocation status (Minister, rural MP, chairman, administrator of grants from the Board of Regional Development or other administrators of agency funds). People need to be clients of the officials and instead of transparency "ships just sail as they please". The Chiefs do not want the public to have rights, but wants them to apply to them personally and have them assigned by grace. Valuables is distributed by Princes who reign by the power of "tribe". The less regulation and transparency, the better for a chiefs power. One of the key aspects of this is that power constraints are blurry and there are almost no penalties, so it is easy to take big risks occasionally. "

"Some progress in Icelandic society have occurred outside of the political system. The history of Iceland is not utter darkness and a number of positive developments have taken place. Take gender equality. Significant progress has been made on the ground in the last 20-30 years, powered by the demands of society and the enthusiasts amongst women. Raising awareness of violence, especially sexual violence, has occurred outside of the traditional administrative or judicial framework.
 
Homosexuals have done remarkable work to change society. On their own terms and on their own. Environmentalists have applied efficient means and been very successful in getting nature on the agenda. Alcoholics and drug patients have achieved remarkable success in improving the community by their organizations and have taught us what it's all about. Likewise, organizations such as Hugarafl and Straightforward. The cultural diversity that exists in Iceland is a good witness to the forces that can be unleashed. All these issues have sprung up out of our community outside the chilly political workshops.
 
These examples, and the work of the Constitutional Council, shows techniques that can be used systematically to open up society. Activate the power of the people. Fix the system so it will be a channel for democratic development. Set constraints for the rulers of the republic. Analyzing power of interests. The big challenge is nothing less than the democratization of Iceland.
 
All this aims to increase prosperity on a broad basis, not just in the form of growth. And greater equality. Balance is economic efficiency."

"The political "revolt from the middle" can isolate extreme hawks aiming to put the country at risk. Such a rebellions objective must be to ensure general prosperity and not give it to those who want to tear apart the peace for their own narrow interests of the moment. This is the democratic way out."

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politicus
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« Reply #110 on: April 16, 2013, 09:09:59 AM »

Are there leadership debates? If so are there certain leaders that can seek to gain from this?
Dunno. Couldnt find anything announced on the RUV webpage.

Katrín Jakobsdóttir from the Left Greens is pretty sharp and the SAP leader is dull, so she might swing some SD voters her way in a debate, I dont know if she can move someone across the aisle. Dont think it can change much between IP and PP, unless IP sends HBK who is a better debater than Bjarni Benediktsson, but I doubt they will do that now.

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politicus
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« Reply #111 on: April 16, 2013, 01:27:19 PM »
« Edited: April 16, 2013, 04:07:12 PM by politicus »

The Election Commission has decided to remove all independents from the lists since Icelandic election law demands that all lists shall have twice as many candidates as the number of seats in the relevant constituency.
This decision doesn't apply to Sturla Jonsson since he actually has a full party list, despite being the only serious candidate on it.
Independents are obviously not happy about this.

Regarding the whole HBK vs. Bjarni Benediktsson saga:

She challenged him for the leadership at the party conference in 2011 and got 45%, she decided against a retry last year, which she no doubt would have won. Instead some unknown minister ran against Bjarni Benediktsson, but told the delegates to vote HBK even if she wasnt an official candidate. As a result BB got 78%, HBK 18,8 and the minister 1,6%. Pretty humiliating for BB. The poor guy has repeatedly been challenged at party conferences since he took over in 2009 and has often barely survived.
Basically he only became the leader because all the heavy weights were implicated in scandals related to the financial crash. The party right wing supports him to block HBK, but dont really consider him one of their own. 
In this years party primaries Benediktsson only got 54% of the votes in the South West constituency despite facing no serious opposition, which was obviously a humilation, while HBK got 74% in a very strong Reykjavik candidate field. 

He became even more unpopular after his decision to back the governments compromise with the Icesave creditors. It was later refused by voters in a referendum (and Iceland won the case at the EFTA court). BB was mercislessly criticized for this by former PM David Oddson at the normally IP friendly Morgunbladid.

A recent poll showed that 86% of IP voters prefer HBK to Benediktsson. She is especially popular among women, rurals and academcs, which are also the groups IP needs to do well among to have a chance. BB is only favoured among young men 18-25 and people making +250.000 dollars a year - basically the Libertarian/low tax crowd.

Voters see her as the one that can clean up the party and break the culture of nepotism and corruption. She was never personally involved in any of the financial crash-scandals, but while she was mayor of Reykjavik she ignored a pitch black corruption report about the public energy company and left it to her succesor, comedian Jon Gnarr from the Best Party, to clean up the mess, but voters seem not to hold this against her.

The long of the short is that IP has a leader that can be toppled by his deputy whenever she feels like it. Pretty bizarre situation. Benediktssons musings about how he might be stepping down was obviously an attempt to put pressure on his critics and force HBK out in the open, but it made him seem as desperate as he probably is.
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politicus
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« Reply #112 on: April 17, 2013, 03:03:03 AM »
« Edited: April 17, 2013, 03:08:56 AM by politicus »

Disclaimer: I said that MMR is considered the best pollster. Big mistake based on dated info. The idiots don't include seniors 67+ in their polls! Which mean they officially suck. Therefore "the traditional/responsible Left"=SAP, Left Greens and IP are underperforming in their polls. While Pirates and other protest parties are overpolling. But the difference is probably not as great as one might expect because the other polls show the same pattern.

The basic pattern regarding age is:

Over represented among voters 50+: IP, SPA, Left Greens

Over represented among 30-50: PP, these are the families with children heavily in debt and hoping for at miracle and therefore attracted to the whole "blackmail foreign creditors" scheme.

Over represented among 18-30: Pirates (no surprise there), Right Greens (Libertarians).

Over represented among 18-50 with no significant youth tilt: Bright Future (ex Best Party), Dawn, Democracy Watch.

The sharp divide around 50 is mostly due to the fact that Icelanders over 50 are generally not in debt since they paid out their house loans so they are more attracted to fiscal responsibility.
Also Left Greens are seen as a continuation of the good old Peoples Alliance, Icelands traditional anti-American Left Socialist party that was bigger than the SDs but joined SPA in 1999 (a move that wasn't popular among many older leftists).

Fun fact: With 15 parties, 11 of them having a full list, around 1.500 out of 320.000 Icelanders are running for office. That is almost 0,5% of the population. Roughly equal to 1,5 mio. Americans running for Congress!
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« Reply #113 on: April 17, 2013, 01:12:41 PM »

I think that's really hard to tell, but the old guard is unlikely to be back. If they get 30%+ more than half their MPs will be people that has never been in parliament before and their leadership is people in their late 30s.

A lot depends on who they are going to govern together with. There is no tradition for minority governments in Iceland and they are likely going to need partners.
IP/PP would be worst case scenario, because all the old networks would just reemerge, but this is also highly unlikely since PP hopes to replace IP as the dominant centre right party.
I wouldn't like a PP majority government either for the same reasons.
But Icelandic political observers seem to expect them to team up with 1 or 2 parties from the center-left: Bright Future, SDA and Left Greens. Basically the kind of government SDA declined back in 2009. This would be a strong government and one that would be able to change things. Maybe even get the constitution ratified, just without the full proportionality part. EU membership would obviously be off the table with a PP victory, so that shouldn't pose a problem.

Any break with the past must come from the centre-right, or at least include part of the centre-right. Iceland is structurally not a left wing country, and it isn't realistic that a left wing government can emerge, unless under extreme conditions as in 2009.
So basically the best hope is a strong reformer from the centre-right. I would generally trust HBK more than Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson from PP, but he is kind of a tabula rasa. He seems calm, level headed, determined etc., but I think few people know who he really is and how he is going to govern. But an alliance with the centre-left would basically tie him to a reform course.

PPs background is different from IPs because they are strongest in Eastern and Northern Iceland where the land distribution is a lot more equal than in the SW and where there is a strong coop movement (because it was furthest from the merchants and shops in Reykjavik), so local "chiefs" - to use Hafsteins expression - are more community leaders, than IP "chiefs", who are often wealthy, they are obviously still patrons but its still a more democratic tradition. I would also generally say that the problems in rural Iceland is more nepotism and pork barrelling, while corruption is more tied to the Reykjavik elite.

If you want to be negative about SDG his dad made his money in the defence industry which means he needed political patronage. But then again he is not his dad.

Daddy's money came from Kögun. A consulting and software company established by the Foreign Ministry to participate in the construction of the Icelandic air defense system, the IADS-radar system, which was built up by NATO. IADS stands for Iceland Air Defense System. The system was implemented in 1994. Kögun was the subcontractor in charge of the organizing and  maintenance and development of the software for IADS.

The CEO of the company was SDGs father Gunnlaugur Sigmundsson, who had formerly worked in the World Bank. In 1993 the mostly public development association behind the company sold its stake in the company to the company itself and its employees, with managemet getting the most. In 1996 the company was listed on the OTC market, but in 2000 its shares were listed on the Icelandic Stock Exchange. During the first four months of 1997 it rose about 277 percent and had risen by 400 percent from its first introduction. Hence the CEO became a wealthy man.

So SDG has an elite/fat cat background, but he is personally clean and maybe he is a reformer. Time will show.
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« Reply #114 on: April 17, 2013, 06:17:05 PM »
« Edited: April 18, 2013, 04:34:15 AM by politicus »

IP is gaining in the first poll post Benediktssons "I might resign" interview, which really surprises me, but apparently his gamble paid of. If you can trust the poll. Its conducted by Fréttablaðið and a private TV channel. Same guys that had the outlier with 40%+ PP support.

Bright Future 6,5%
Progressive Party 30,3%
Independence Party 26,9%
SDA 13,7%
Left Greens 7,9%
Right Greens 0.8 %
Households Party 2,4%
Democracy Watch 1,7%
Dawn 3,0%
Pirates 5.6%
 

Gunnar Helgi Kristinsson, a professor of political science, says "Bjarni Benediktsson openness last weekend has clearly been effective". He is also stating the obvious, that the electorate is still highly volatil, but that voters are primarily moving between PP and IP and not across the blocs.

The polls response rate was 63.2 percent. Participants were selected by random sampling from the National Registry. Respondents were divided evenly by gender and relatively by residence and age (so no omitting elderly people).
But then the BS starts. They start out asking: Which list would you vote for if the parliamentary elections was held today? If they do not receive a specific answer to the question they ask: Which list is you most likely to prefer? If the respondent still dont answer they finally ask: Is it likely that you would vote for the Independence Party or any other list?

This obviously increases the IP share artificially.  

I dont know, apparently both the major Icelandic pollsters suck. One excludes pensioners and the other asks specifically if people wanna vote IP. I guess we will have to wait for Gallup.

The poll confirms the urban/rural basic pattern:

SDA, Bright Future and Pirates get their votes in Greater Reykjavik
PP is still a provincial party
IP is doing slighly better in the urban areas than the country. Inly Left Greens have a fairly equal representation. Their 5 seats would go to 5 different constituencies.
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politicus
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« Reply #115 on: April 17, 2013, 07:12:58 PM »

The Right Greens seem to be trying a bit of xenophobia. It didnt work for their fellow "Libertarians" in The Liberal Party last time, but who knows, maybe Iceland is ready for it now.
Their chairman Franklin Gudmundur Jonsson said in a TV interview that the Schengen agreement is not efficient and that "undesirables are coming into Iceland". When he was asked to elaborate he said that the problem was connected to the increasing crime rates in the country and that criminal foreigners and "individuals of colour" are entering the country.

"I just want to check if it pays off for us to stay in Schengen or not. It's that simple".
"Is undesirable people coming into the country? Yes - I'd like to stop it".











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« Reply #116 on: April 18, 2013, 03:59:47 AM »

Until the 90s Iceland was extremely homogenous with about 1,5% foreign born, mainly from mainland Scandinavia. Now the relative size of it minority population is about equal to the other Nordic countries, but the distribution is different. Its mainly Eastern Europeans, no old people and few children.

From 1996 to 2008 immigrants share of the population increased from 1.8% to 8%, this has dropped to around 7% since but seems stable now, so there are around 22-23.000 immigrants. Many of the Poles and Lithuanians that stayed on after the crash are bringing their families now. They still have less than 2.000 second generation immigrants because its been such a recent phenomenon.

In 2008 68% came from "Europe outside the Nordic countries" and 7% from Scandinavia. A third of all immigrants in Iceland are born in Poland. Other large (relatively speaking) immigrant groups are Philippines 1,200 and Lithuanians 1,200. Around 1.800 from the Nordic countries. They also have a couple of thousand refugees incl. some Africans. 
I dont know about recent immigration patterns apart from the fact that the Polish share has dropped.

The SDA-LG government has established various cultural centers, language programmes etc -  they call it "the infrastructure for a multicultural society".
There is no real anti-immigration tradition, some guys tried to establish a Nationalist Party around 2008, but it never got of the ground.
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« Reply #117 on: April 18, 2013, 07:45:25 AM »

A poll about who voters think would be the best Prime Minister:

Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson (PP) 33,9%
Bjarni Benediktsson (IP) 19,8%
Katrín Jakobsdóttir (Left Greens) 13,3%
Árna Pál Árnason (SDA) 10,4%
Someone else 22,6%

So SDG has slightly more support than his party, BB less support, but not a lot. On the left side Arnason is clearly less popular than his party and also clearly behind Jakobsdottir who has significantly more support than her party, but is far from the "Queen of the Left" level she used to be at. 22,6% preferring someone else is a high number, but most of them probably wants Hanna Birna Kristjansdottir.

With IP campaigning hard on how a vote for PP is a vote for another leftist government, it is definitely an advantage for PP that so many centre-right voters wants SDG as Prime Minister.
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« Reply #118 on: April 18, 2013, 10:12:57 AM »

Wow I didn't Katrin was so popular. Why is she more popular that Left-Green vote share would indicate ?
She is by far the most charismatic left wing politician in Iceland, but this is actually quite low for her - resembling the decline of the party. All that fiscal responsibility doesn't appeal to young people. I wouldn't be surprised if they were left with the highest average age of all parties. Basically being left with those born 1945-60, who were young in the late 60s and 70s.

AI is a good writer, but Arctic Chill gives a very dark picture, too dark IMO, but then again whats a crime story without darkness and despair?
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« Reply #119 on: April 18, 2013, 03:00:20 PM »
« Edited: April 18, 2013, 03:16:19 PM by politicus »

Two new polls out, both confirming a rise in support for the IP!

Firstly, MMR shows the IP leading for the first time since mid-March:

I put Gallup in the second row for comparison

Independence Party: 27.5% 24,1%
Progressive Party: 25.6% 26,7%
Social Democrats: 13.5% 15,2%
Bright Future: 8.3% 8,0%
Left-Green: 8.1% 8,8%
Pirates: 6.7% 8,4%

Gallup shows a 2.6% lead for the Progressives, a significant decline from their last poll last week. All in all Benediktsson's decision seems to have payed off.

It clearly hasn't harmed them, but I think its more likely that it is their "PP will form another left wing government" line of attack that's beginning to work.

Gallup has better numbers for the government, as one would expect from a poll that includes pensioners, but its strange that IP is lower and Pirates are higher than in MMR, it should be the other way around. There is no way old people are voting Pirates in disproportionate numbers! But there is always statistical uncertainty, so one shouldn't read too much into those differences.

Nevertheless I tend to trust Gallup more, they seem to have a normal methodology.

Anyway the tendency is pretty clear. Government and IP up, PP down.

Gallup gives PP 20, IP 17, SDA 10,  Left Greens 6, Pirates 5 and Bright Future 5. Thats a 35 seat majority for a centrist PP, BF, SDA government.  
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« Reply #120 on: April 19, 2013, 01:14:06 AM »
« Edited: April 19, 2013, 01:22:19 AM by politicus »

Okay, we are getting more polling now. I promise not to clutter the board by posting every one of them, but this is a quality one from the Social Science Research Institute for Morgunbladid and it confirms Gallup apart from SDA not gaining in this one.

Independence Party 24.4% - up 5.5 percentage points from their last survey.
Progressive Party 28.1%.
 
IP is getting their voters back. In the last survey 29.2% of respondents who voted for the Independence Party in 2009 intend to vote for the Progressive Party, but now this proportion has dropped to 18.4%. The proportion of IP voters staying loyal to the party has increased from 56.2% in the last survey to 69.1% now. The chickens are coming home to roast Tongue
SDA is stable in this one, but Left Greens is up by 0,5%.
 
SDA 12.2%
Left Greens 9.3%
Bright Future 7.4% (down from 10,9% in their last poll)
Pirates 6.3%
Democracy Watch 3.3%
Dawn 3%
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« Reply #121 on: April 19, 2013, 04:55:26 AM »

Lars Christensen, head of the Research Departemet at Denmarks biggest bank Danske Bank has indirectly criticized PP in an interview with Bloomberg news agency, its quoted by Morgunbladid and Fréttablaðið and making its way around IP friendly news media in Iceland.

Christensen was co-author of the harshly critical report "Iceland, Geyser crisis" in 2006 and became quite famous as an "Iceland-basher" back then.
 
"If the political parties take advantage of the failed banks assets to pay for their election promises it will lead to economic crisis in Iceland. By confiscating the assets of the old banks, Iceland will close the door to outside investment and Iceland's possibilities to pick up additional credit on the international markets".
 
"It is important to reduce household debt, but using assets from failed banks that are owned by the claimants is not the right way. Many claimants are investors who are interested in investing further in Iceland, for example the Nordic pension funds. If their assets are confiscated then international investors will not forget this".

He has obviously got some points, its not easy for a small nation to take on the international capital markets and get away with it.

The thing is whether Chinese and Korean investors, who are generally quite interested in the North Atlantic economies, will be influenced by a "confiscation" of mainly Western European assets? Maybe they will seize the investment opportunities in Iceland anyway.

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« Reply #122 on: April 19, 2013, 10:06:38 AM »

I assume that such a result would still result in a Progressive Party government?
Yes, the only thing that's 99,9% certain at the moment is that PP will be part of the government
and IMO its also 80-85% certain that they will lead it. The big questions are who they will govern together with and whether they are going to try putting pressure on the creditors or not + what happens to the constitution bill (it takes 22 seats to block it - how close can IP get?).

PP is the party in the middle and don't want to go back to their old role as junior partner. So an IP led government would only happen if IP became significantly bigger than PP and there wasn't any centrist majority. Also I am not even sure Benediktsson really would like to be Prime Minister given his precarious situation within the party.

You would need something like this for an IP led government:

Independence Party: 30.5%
Progressive Party: 22.6%
Social Democrats: 13.5%
Bright Future: 8.3%
Left-Green: 8.1%
Pirates: 6.7%

Even in this case PP could block Benediktsson by simply saying "no". If the parties cant agree the President gets to chose a Prime Minister. Grimson is an old leftist and would pick SDG over Benediktsson, as more parties could accept SDG.
This scenario has only happened once (in 1942), but it gives PP a lot of bargaining power, that it exists. Even if they probably wouldn't want to use it since it would make a lot of centre-right voters mad.
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« Reply #123 on: April 19, 2013, 11:19:58 AM »
« Edited: April 19, 2013, 12:44:39 PM by politicus »

EU has been virtually absent from the campaign, but its actually one of the few topics where the government is in line with the voters, according to a Vísir poll.
Even if countless polls have shown that Icelanders dont want to join the EU, they want to vote about it anyway. Probably due to a feeling of being ignored by their leaders.

A. Finish the negotations and hold a referendum (SDA, LG, BF) 55%
B. Redraw the membership application (IP and PP) 34%
C. Put the negotiations on hold and hold a referendum about whether they should be resumed 11%
 
Generally more men prefer to finish what they started, while women are more likely to prefer a clean break. The only constituency with a majority for ending the negotiations right away is the rural NW.

Option A gets:

SDA 92% (no surprise there)
Bright Future 87%
LG 72% (it is the party line, but a bit higher than I would have expected)
Pirates 58%

But even on the right wing its a minority that prefer the official party line of just walking away.

PP: 40% for finishing, which is pretty high, while 48% wants to shut the door right away, 12% for "making everything as complicated as possible"
IP: 38% for finishing, 46% for withdrawing the application, 16% for "making everything as complicated as possible"

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« Reply #124 on: April 19, 2013, 01:04:26 PM »
« Edited: April 19, 2013, 01:22:43 PM by politicus »

What's actually green about the "Right Greens", other than their party colour?
Not much it seems. A bit of nature conservation, but it looks like a gimmick. Maybe something to sweeten their cut taxes/foreigners and EU are bad-package to more moderate voters.

As you can see its mostly platitudes:

"The party is a right-green party. This reflects respect of and concern for the environment and the need for intelligent and practical utilization of natural resources based upon green solutions. The regulatory framework is already stringent, but contains holes to fill and knots to untie. The party wants to make people in general—including sectors such as agriculture, tourism, energy companies and the fisheries, all of which depend their existence on nature and its resources—to be more aware of the importance of the well being of the environment and their responsibility towards it. The party wants to provide incentives, help and assistance not only to protect the environment, but also to service it".

They do have a few concrete suggestions:

"This may for instance be done by allowing the collection of entrance fees at tourist sites to provide necessary funds for upkeep; by providing incentives and help to landowners and farmers for increased land reclamation and forestry, while grazing restrictions on livestock need to be enforced. Our new fisheries policy will ensure that there is no more undesired catch dumping at sea. Where there is a carrot there must also be a stick. More and tougher disciplinary tools should also be provided to keep these important matters in check".  
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