DCCC expands their target list

[Zioneer]

I'm disappointed that UT-04 isn't on the list. It's winnable with the right candidate. Someone who has won countywide in Salt Lake County (a plurality of the district's popularity, or even an outright majority), could win by enough there to offset expected landslide losses in Utah County, Juab County, and Sanpete County, the other three portions of the district.

There are multiple Democratic county officials who could feasibly win the seat.

[Zioneer]

I'll just quote these all at once for ease of responding.

You must win Salt Lake county by truly a lot. Only in an extremely strong wave probably...

I actually created a story on Daily Kos talking about this.

Basically, you need to match Jim Matheson's numbers in all the counties, maybe a little bit more assuming there's no Libertarian to get you right over the edge of victory.

You need about 52-54% in Salt Lake County (doable), roughly 27-29% in Utah County (more difficult, but also doable), and somewhere around 30% in Juab and Sanpete counties, which are sparsely populated, so I would just try and crank up the numbers in Salt Lake and Utah counties.

Actually, Democrats nearly held this seat in 2014, hardly a Democratic wave.

Indeed, Doug Owens got about 5% less than he needed in all of the counties in the district and he ended up losing by just under 5%. So it's totally doable, especially if you have won an election in the county before.

How did Jim Matheson pull it off in Utah?

By being a popular, well-known, moderate Congressman with a famous name, with the added benefit of a slightly stronger Libertarian than usual. As I said, he got just the right amount in every county, though I'm convinced that a Salt Lake County elected official could replicate or exceed those numbers in Salt Lake, and therefore win in the most populous county in the district.