Where is the race right now? w/ maps

[AmericanNation]

NM and MI probably go Mitt before PA.

[AmericanNation]

NM and MI probably go Mitt before PA.

Lol no

It isn't laughable for certain and I'm probably right.  Although PA could have shifted a lot in the last few days which could make me wrong. 

[AmericanNation]

This is probably the order(/tiers) the states flip to Romney as his lead increases.  Reverse for Obama working from 2nd-3rd tier up. 

(NC)
FL, VA, OH
CO, WI, IA, (NH)
(MI, PA, --- NM, NV,)

*MI, PA could switch order with NM, and NV
**NH has to go somewhere i really don't know.

 

[AmericanNation]

I have no idea where you guys are getting the idea that Obama still leads nationally from. It's pretty clear that he's thrown away his national lead. Romney is in the driver's seat now, and I suspect once we getting polls of him leading in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, etc. this will become much clearer.

Yes, I'm assuming that.  when I posted this:

I would say:

(NC)
OH, FL, VA
WI, IA, CO, NH
(NV)

I should have put a line between the OH rank and the WI rank.  I think Romney probably leads in the three big ones, Obama very narrowly in the rest.  So the map looks like this at the moment:

But with 1-4 more states to shift by election day:

This is dead on. 

I would make a 'wild card' tier of states:
NV, MI, PA, NM, MN
that Obama should win, but that could have significant "wild card" internal shifts.

For instance: The Philadelphia suburbs may have shifted significantly in the last few days, which totally reshapes the dynamic of the state, bumping PA into the tier with WI and CO.  These are predictable wild shifts that need to have an eye kept on.  Ohio and WI become a lot tougher for Obama if he's defending PA and MI.         

[AmericanNation]

For instance: The Philadelphia suburbs may have shifted significantly in the last few days, which totally reshapes the dynamic of the state, bumping PA into the tier with WI and CO.  These are predictable wild shifts that need to have an eye kept on.  Ohio and WI become a lot tougher for Obama if he's defending PA and MI.         

Is there any evidence that the Romney campaign is even thinking about moving into PA again?  If somehow he ends up winning the state, it would be as part of a 300+ EV win anyway.

I don't know, they will take a hard look at all the numbers they can for sure, in order to figure out if a shift is really happening.
From my perspective, having witnessed the transformation in Wisconsin a few years ago, PA is perhaps the most similar state to Wisconsin from a 'cultural nation' perspective.  This could be the real deal, not just the trap it is every election.  So the state might 'change' position from a 300+ win to a "new" Wisconsin/Colorado/Ohio that only needs around a 1%ish PV victory. 
It's an interesting gambit whether to expand the map or consolidate gains!       

I really like this ad for PA and I would like a new one for sure. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-44o5Dn6V98

 

[AmericanNation]

This may be a high water mark for a while, but here we are.
*Iowa is probably R or toss today, but we have no polling/info.   

[AmericanNation]

I would make a 'wild card' tier of states:
NV, MI, PA, NM, MN
that Obama should win, but that could have significant "wild card" internal shifts.

I agree with your wild cards except for New Mexico.

To play off your race theory:
1) the Whites in NM are pretty strongly R and could get stronger/ turn out stronger,
2) the Navajo are uniformly D, but could turn out in lower numbers
3) the Hispanics are D 3 out of 4, but could shift some or turn out less.   
 I'm not saying it's likely, but it has a potential of happening that shouldn't be ignored. 

[AmericanNation]

NV, MI, PA, NM, MN

I agree with your wild cards except for New Mexico.

To play off your race theory:
1) the Whites in NM are pretty strongly R and could get stronger/ turn out stronger,
2) the Navajo are uniformly D, but could turn out in lower numbers
3) the Hispanics are D 3 out of 4, but could shift some or turn out less.   
 I'm not saying it's likely, but it has a potential of happening that shouldn't be ignored. 

Nobody but whites are gonna shift, because I think non-whites are all well aware what this is about (they're certainly not going to support their own undoing).   I can't say about turnout - I would think that desperation would militate against giving up.. but maybe not.

In my travel through the state (anecdotal evidence) most Hispanics weren't politically engaged.  They were far less engaged than the other two groups.  The democrat Hispanics who hold office or run organizations obviously have networks of support, but they don't reach all of the population by any means.  Wild Card factor is the female Hispanic Republican Governor who can dispel a lot of the race baiting ideology dems rely on.           

[AmericanNation]

Since Suffolk has stated they have stopped polling NC, FL, and VA because of Romney's "overwhelming" lead, I'd say the race today is

uh.....I choose to not watch the debate, so I must have missed something. Did Romney verbally rape Obama on stage or something to the effect?

It was something like a 35 to 0 football game.  Romney smoked him in every aspect.