2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[hopper]

Probably Sweeney or Fulop wins the Governor's Race in 2017.

[hopper]

If Trump becomes POTUS, Guadagno may very well be the incumbent in this race, as Christie may very well get a job in Trump's cabinet (AG?).  I'd say a Dem wins either way, considering Christie's unpopularity and NJ's blueness.

Christie is unpopular because the state has too many fiscal issues to ignore and he was rarely in the state starting with his second term. He pissed off alot of New Jerseyans off for being out of the state so much and making the people that voted for him feel neglected.

[hopper]

New Jersey Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) is likely running for governor in 2017. If elected, she would be the first African American governor and the second female governor. It will be interesting. The black vote in Essex, Union, Middlesex, Passaic counties may go to Sumter, or they may go to Fulop, the Jersey City mayor.

She doesn't have the Name ID that Fulop, or Sweeney have and she hasn't been running commericals like Philip Murphy has.

[hopper]

However, if in 2019, a Gov. Murphy is unpopular, the GOP could pick up one of the chambers for the first time since 2001.

Why? What about 2019 and NJ suggests that will happen? I'd say until verifiable trends or other evidence suggest so, I doubt NJ Democrats are losing any chambers in the Trump era.

N.J. is one of the highest taxed states in the nation. If Phil Murphy raises taxes in his first two years as N.J. governor, voters are going to be fed up. New Jersey has had a tax problem for decades now, and it has helped Republicans in the past (Christie Todd Whitman in '93, Chris Christie in '09). Anything can happen, and the N.J. GOP could come back sooner than later.

N.J voters are always fed up, and they always vote democrat regardless. Chris Christie won in 2009 because he was running against an unpopular incumbent who was a former wall street executive during the recession.

Well for Governor not so much. The same party hasn't held the Governorship for 3 straight terms in a long while.

[hopper]

I honestly don't understand the Kean obsession among certain people on this forum. He's a perfectly fine State Senator and Minority Leader, but he really doesn't have much charisma or charm.

He only did as well as he did in the 2006 Senate race because Menendez was unknown, and because many people still remembered his father fondly. However, no one under the age of 25 knew who Tom Kean Sr. was; now few people under 40 do, so his name recognition isn't what it used to be.

He could beat Menendez or Torricelli convincingly in 2018. Just because it is a Trump/Pence midterm in 2018, doesn't mean that Democrats are going to do well. Kean, Webber, or Rich Bagger could beat Menendez/Torricelli in 2018.

NJ is too non-white to elect a Republican US Senator.

[hopper]

I honestly don't understand the Kean obsession among certain people on this forum. He's a perfectly fine State Senator and Minority Leader, but he really doesn't have much charisma or charm.

He only did as well as he did in the 2006 Senate race because Menendez was unknown, and because many people still remembered his father fondly. However, no one under the age of 25 knew who Tom Kean Sr. was; now few people under 40 do, so his name recognition isn't what it used to be.

He could beat Menendez or Torricelli convincingly in 2018. Just because it is a Trump/Pence midterm in 2018, doesn't mean that Democrats are going to do well. Kean, Webber, or Rich Bagger could beat Menendez/Torricelli in 2018.

NJ is too non-white to elect a Republican US Senator.

Really? I think a Kyrillos or a Kean could do well with minority voters. NJ will elect a GOP Senator, soon. Menendez or Torricelli could lose if they are unpopular.

Booker.