Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

New government takes office

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/07/inenglish/1528359765_948129.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Spaniards trust more Pedro Sánchez government than Rajoy's for the resolution of problems, poll says

http://cadenaser.com/ser/2018/06/08/politica/1528435287_628929.html

42.8% say the new administration will do better, 24.5% just as the old, 24,4% worse

The main concerns of the government should be:

Unemployment and job insecurity 53.4%, pensions 37.9%, fight against corruption 37.9%, normalization of Catalonia 30.0%, tackling poverty and inequality 29.9%

Soledad Gallego-Díaz set to become the new editor-in-chief of El País

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/07/inenglish/1528370083_541641.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This could reverse the rightward drift of the newspaper   

[Velasco]

If Matteo Salvini is Trump, then Pedro Sánchez is Trudeau

[Velasco]

The Sánchez government isn't even 2 weeks old and it already has a scandal!

Màxim Huerta, the minister of Culture and Sport (and already quite controversial for his tweets about sport) had resigned this afternoon after it was discovered that he was found guilty of tax evasion in the past and had to pay 365 000€ for it.

He initially refused to resign but after several declarations from both Sánchez about corrupt politicians, critics from all parties and the like happened, he had to resign.

This almost certainly makes Màxim Huerta the shortest lived minister in Spanish history XD

It's a good sign that Maxim Huerta resigned so quickly. He didn't tell Sánchez he had an affair with tax authotities. It's obvious that Sánchez lacked the time to verify the background of Mr Huerta, who is his friend. There has been a certain degree of improvisation in this appointment, possibly due to lack of time. Maxim Huerta was not the first choice, apparently the post was offered to others before. José Guirao, a former durector of Reina Sofía Contemporary Arts Museum, was appointed in the same day replacing Huerta. Opposite profiles: cultural manager Vs journalist, writer and celebrity.

The standard has been set high. In demanding the resignation of Mr Huerta, PP, Cs and Podemos comit themselves to act in a similar way when they are in government. That's great news; leaving aside the anazing cynicism of PP.

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez intends to last until 2020

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/19/inenglish/1529394392_925595.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"Normalization" is badly needed in Catalonia, or in the words of Justice minister Dolores Delgado there's need to "reduce the inflamation" in order to "avoid more pain".

The weakness of PSOE in Congress is well known, but the sucession crisis in PP opens a window of opportunity.

Without Feijoo, it looks to be a competition between Santamaria and Cospedal, which is certainly interesting.

I think this is going to be a contest between two women who hate each other, with Pablo Casado in the middle as a possible dark horse.

María Dolores de Cosèdal, who resigns as PP secretary general, offers "Victory, Victory and Victory" trying to inpersonate a female version of Winston Churchill.

Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría vindicates her experence in government and opposition, adressing press in front of the Congress. She offers "modernity" and "integration". She says PP will be soon back in government if they prform a good opposition in Parliament.

Pablo Casado wants ro build the "common house" of the Spanish centre-right where everyone to the right of PSOE feels comfortable. Also he appeals to the !Spain of the balconies", referring to people putting Spanish flags in their balconies during the worst phase of the crisis in Catalonia.

Sáenz de Santamaría and Cospedal have tried to attract Casado to their side, unsucessfully. Casado is young and promising but jhe has two disadvantages:   

1) He took the same Master at Rey Juan Carlos University that caused the resignation of former Madrid premier Cristina Cifuentes. Cadado obtained the Master Degree surprisingly quickly and some judge is investigating.

2) He might be seen as too much right-wing, too close to former PM José María Aznar and former Madrid leader Esperanza Aguirre.

Former Foreign Affairs minister José Manuel García-Margallo and the other two candidates (Ramón García Hernández and José Luis Bayo) look like outsiders. García-Margallo has serious differences with Sáenz de Santamaría on the management of the conflict in Catalonia.

[Velasco]

Wasn’t calling for new elections part of his big promises?

That’s not a good way to start out your term (though to be honest Spain would probably have to go through at least two elections to finally get a new government considering the divided field, so this could be fine).

The point is that only Cs is interested in calling new elections. Neither PSOE nor the parties supporting the no-confidence motion want. Neither wants the PP, absorbed in its succession crisis and with corruption trials pending resolution. Moreover, when the high-profile appointments to the cabinet were revealed it became evident that Pedro Sánchez wanted to last. Someone said the new government was designed for the next 5 years, because Pedro Sánchez hopes to win the next election.

Regarding the resignation of Maxim Huerta, who was the Culture and Sports minister for six days,  possibly it had a collateral impact in the PP leadership contest. Galicia premier Alberto Núñez Feijoó was the frontrunner, but shockingly he withdrew from the race. Possibly the reasons behind his decision are some old photographs of him with narco Marcial Dorado relaxing on a yacht deck.

https://www.eldiario.es/galicia/Feijoo-recordarle-Marcial-Dorado-difamar_0_554345121.html

https://www.elespanol.com/reportajes/20180615/marcial-dorado-espada-amenaza-feijoo-limpiando-carcel/315219546_0.html

 The images were released by El País a couple of years ago; despite some conmotion they didn't end Feijoó's career. However, the resignation of Maxim Huerta for has set a new standard. If Maxim Huerta had to resign due to his already solved problems with tax authorities, try to imagine what would happen when Núñez Feijoó is proclaimed PP leader and those photographs surface again in the media. Maybe something is changing for good in Spanish politics.

[Velasco]

I think the Cs performance depends on whether Santamaria or Cospedal wins the leadership election, with the former likely to take many of their votes.

Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría is possibly the right choice for PP. Among the three top candidates in the leadership contest, Santamaría would be the most competitive candidate in a general election. The former Deputy PM was the member of the Rajoy government with the best approval rates beating María Dolores de Cospedal in every age group and ideological niche (centre-right to far-right), according to the last CIS survey. Also, she is the most popular among those who left PP for Cs. Given that she is perceived as more "liberal" and with a greater degree of "openness" than Cospedal, she's the best choice to regain voters from Cs.

However, I don't think that Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría is the favourite in this race. The outcome of this leadership election is fairly unpredictable, especially when PP lacks of democratic traditions and never held this kind of elections before. As former PP secretary general, Cospedal has a better knowledge of the party and its structures. Apparently the regions of Madrid, Castilla-La Mancha and Catalonia would go fr Cospedal. Santamaría has a base of support in regions like Andalusia, Castilla y León or the Basque Country (and maybe Valencia).

Galicia is a big question because premier Alberto Núñez Feijoó (previously the big favourite) is not endorsing anyone in the first round, in which party members registered to vote will choose between the six candidates and elect the delegates for the party convention. In case that no candidate gets a majority in the first round, the two top candidates will pass to the second round in which only delegates are eligible to vote. Then Feijoó will say which candidate supports and will ask Galician delegates to vote as a block. I've read that he would never support Santamaría.

On the other hand, Pablo Casado must be taken into account. Casado is a young conservative that appeals to generational replacement and party0s unity, "as well as Spanish nationalism or "family values". He has the support of much of the PP's "New Generations" (youth branch) and the supporters of José María Aznar and Esperanza Aguirre. In case that Casado qualifies as one of the two top candidates for the second round, his victory is very likely. Delegates supporting Sntamaría or Cospedal would vote for him and against the other woman.

Casado and others have stated concern at the low numbers of members registered to vote. PP has nominally more than 800k members, but this figure is unreal. Membership census hasn't been updated in a long time; possibly there are dead people and members who left in the census roll. Only 66k (less tan 8%) have registered and are eligible to vote. Turnout will be lower than that figure. It's a big failure for the PP.

EDIT: Journalist Eruardo Inda (scum, sensationalist hack) says that according to some internal polling Pablo Casado is ahead, followers by Cospedal and Santamaria. Maybe Inda is intoxicating but the man has good contacts in the PP and in the underworld. Aside from that, my insight (maybe incorrect or baseless) is that Casado could win this.

Current opinion polling is placing PSOE in first place, with the exception of the Sociométrica poll released by El Español (editor Pedro J Ramírez likes Rivera)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

[Velasco]

Yikes!! That's real, real bad. It becomes worse if you compare with the PP's sister party in Portugal, the PSD. In this year leadership elections, 70,000 PSD members, out of 120,000 active members, were registered to vote, although only 43,000 voted.

Oh my, that's hideous. I compared this to the 2017 NDP leadership election for a perspective, and Canada's third largest party had nearly the exact same number of VOTERS (and that's with 52% turnout, the NDP has over 124k members) as Spain's largest party.

Sometimes comparisons are odious (I mean the ccomparisons you make are terrible for the PP). The 870k membership figure is unreal. Some PP officials claim that figure includes activists and mere supporters, but possibly it also includes dead people or people who joined one day and dissapeared. The main reason for not updting the membership census is that regions send delegaes to the party convention according to the size of their membership (75%) and election results (25%).

Even with a more realistic census, this 66k figure is really poor. More comparisons:

2018 PP leadership contest: 66384 enrolled to vote out of 869535 members (7.6%)

2017 PSOE leadership contest:  149051 out of 187715 turned out to vote (79.8%)

2017 Podemos convention (Vistalegre II): 155275 members voted online (34.5%)

[Velasco]

Is the PNV/EAJ pro-Basque independence or more of a "Basque interests" party?

Simultaneously both and neither at the same time. A big and somewhat hilarious example is that the same day they signed the budget deal with Rajoy's government in Madrid, they also signed a declaration in favour of the right to decide with Bildu back in the Basque Country.

It really depends. I think their position on independence is something like "would be nice but now is not the time". They are clearly in favour of the right to decide (ie a referendum) though I don't think they would actively push for independence unless they felt threatened or something.

It also depens on who is in charge of PNV. Right now Urkullu is a moderate, but former leader Ibarretxe was a lot more pro-independence, actively pushing for the Basque Country to become a "free associated state". That was defeated in the Spanish Congress by a landslide margin: 29-313, with only Basque/Catalan/Galician nationalists voting in favour; IU splitting between abstaining and no; and everyone else voting no.

In fact up until the Catalan conflict, the Ibarretxe plan was the strongest pro-independence challenge in Spain, though it went nowhere near as far (Ibarretxe never dared to disobey court orders like Mas and Puigdemont for example)

The leader of PNV is not lehendakari (premier) Íñigo Urkullu, it's the chairman of the Euzkadi Buru Batzar (EBB) Andoni Ortúzar. EBB is the National Executive Committee and it has branches in every territory of the Greater Basque Country, also known as Euskal Herria. Territories are the three Basque provinces (Álava/Araba, Bizkaia and Gipuzkoa), Navarre (Nafarroa) and the French Basque Country (Iparralde). Urkullu himself was chairman of the PNV between 2008 and 2012, replacing Josu Jon Imaz. He left party leadership in order to run for lehendakari.

One of the main singularities of the PNV is that there's a strict separation of powers between the party organization and the Basque government, which PNV holds since 1980 (except for the 2009-2012 period). The EBB makes strategic decisions. The lehendakari and the members of the government implement the party's policies and are in charge of management.

Even though the party is very calm nowadays, there have been tensions between the lehendakari and the EBB chairman in the past. Differences between PNV chairman Xavier Arzalluz and lehendakari Carlos Garaikoetxea led to a split and the establishment of Eusko Alkartasuna (EA), a rival nationalist party currently integrated in EH Bildu. The relationship between chairman Josu Jon Imaz (a moderate) and lehemdakari José Ibarretxe (pro-sovereignty) was uneasy.

The short answer is that PNV is clearly a Basque Interests party, but it has two souls.

There is a more nationalistic faction (pro-sovereignty or pro-independence) that coexists with a more pragmatic faction that advocates a gradual approach and focuses on Basque interests: strengthening self-government and protecting Basque fiscal regime.

PNV politicians are very skilled in negotiations, as well they show a rare ability to swim between the two currents (the pragmatic and the nationalist).

[Velasco]

The endorsement of regional and provincial leadersis (more or less) evenly distributed between Santamaría and Cospedal, while Casado relies in the grassroots. Summary:

María Dolores de Cospedal has been the secretary general of the party and is the only candidate who is a regional leader (Castilla-La Mancha). She is endorsed by the regional leaders of Extremadura and Asturias, as well by the Madrid premier Ángel Garrido. Six provincial leaders endorse her publicly (4 from her region plus Almería and Cáceres). According to partisan sources, she has good chances in Zaragoza and Ceuta, while Jaén and Córdoba would be contested between her and Santamaría.

Galicia leader Alberto Núñez Feijoó has remained silent, but he could tip the balance in favour of Cospedal for the second round. Especially if one of the two candidates is Santamaría. 

Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría has been endorsed by the regional leader of Andalusia. The support of former ministers Alfonso Alonso and Ïñigo de la Serna could give her a base of support in the Basque Country and Cantabria. Also, she is endorsed by 10 provincial leaders (Álava, Alicante, Cádiz, Castellón, Girona, Huelva, Gipuzkoa, Málaga, Sevilla and Valencia). Partisan sources told to El País that she is the likely winner in most of Castilla y León provinces. According to the same sources, she could win Murcia, the Canaries and Melilla.

Pablo Casado has the endorsement of three provincial leaders in Catalonia (Barcelona, Tarragona and Lleida). The faction loyal to Esperanxa Aguirre in Madrid backs him, as well as nostalgics for Aznar*, so Casado has chances of winning Madrid. The Balearic Islands would be in dispute between him and Santamaría. Given his little support in the territorial organizations, his chances rely in obtaining a big support among grassroots and in the 4,800 members of the PP Youth registered to vote.

*Aznar claims that PP must undertake a refounding. He didn't endorse anyone in public, but it's clear that Casado is his preferred candidate. Former PM stated that he didn't register to vote.

I read that Casado is involved in a weird controversy around his master degree, that he didn't show up to classes and that it was mandatory. It seems he was tutored by the same teacher, if i'm correct, that helped Cifuentes to get her master degree.

Why would the PP members vote for someone who can be a liability in the near future? It doesn't make sense. At least Cospedal and Santamaría don't have this kind, or other legal, problems, i assume, of course.

Indeed, the issue f the master degree can be a burden. If PP voters were intelligent , they'd vote massively for Santamaría. She's the more capable and competitive, despite her mistakes and failures as Deputy PM. I think Cospedal would be eaten by Rivera (the Cs leader) and Casado isn't convincing (the master, his proximity to Aznar and Aguirre...)

However, who said that party grassroots are clever?

[Velasco]

Booths closed in mainland Spain. Maybe we'll have  some provisional results in acouple of hours.

Apparently Casado id winning in Madrid by a landslide. Santamaría would be winning in Andalusia, followed by Casado. At least, that's what some people is saying in La Sexta.

[Velasco]

Andalusia hitted the balance in favour of Santamaría. Results by region:

Now, how will the runoff play out in the congress? Will Cospedal throw her support to Casado in order to stop Santamaría, or will there be a consensus to support the most voted candidate in the 1st round?

Given that Cospedal and Santamaría hate each other and the margin is narrow, it's very likely that Casado takes the battle. Tonight he called Cospedal supporters to join his ranks. Obviously he has a good chance of winning the second round at the party convention, with the support of delegates loyal to Cospedal.  However, Santamaría supporters will argue that her candidate is the one entitled to be the next PP leder. This outcome is potentially harmful for the party's unity. In that regard, it would have been better that Casado came first. This mess proves that the voting system is poorly designed. It could have been averted with the membership voting in the two rounds. It happens that PP never held democratic elections before.

[Velasco]

The number of delegates supporting Casado, Cospedal or Santamaria is not necessarily correlated with their vote on past Thursday. Source?

[Velasco]

By the way, the incompetent who designed the voting system in two rounds is Fernando Martínez Maillo

https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_Martínez_Maíllo

[Velasco]

Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez and Catalan remier Quim Torra met yesrterday at La Moncloa, rhe seat of Spanish government in Madrid. The meeting was aimed to ease long running tensions between central and regional administrations, as well as re-open previously suspended billateral discussions. The most visible result of the meeting is that they agreed to keep talking. "Normalization" of the institutional relationship and "thaw" are the key words. Predictably the two disagreed on the issue of Catalan self-determination, which Torra demands and Sánchez maintains that it'd not allowed under the Spanish constitution. However Deputy PM Carmen Calvo said at a press conference after the meeting that it's possible to move forward on other items: “Torra makes statements on a right to self-determination that does not exist as a right in any European constitution. We need to talk about Catalonia’s autonomy and about matters that are stuck in the Constitutional Court. We are ready to lift the veto on a few laws on energy, healthcare and poverty that are part of the policies of the new government of Spain.”

Sánchez: “a political crisis requires a political solution. This meeting is a constructive starting point to normalize relations.”

Torra: “the meeting has been long, honest and work-based, and we have given our visions for Catalonia. There’s been a mutual acknowledgement of what we each represent. Sánchez has admitted that this is a political problem that requires political solutions. And we’ve talked about everything.”

This is the first face-to-face conversation between a Spanish PM and a Catalan premier since 2012, when Mariano Rajoy and Artur Mas met. In that meeting Mas demanded Rajoy a reform in the financing system of Catalonia to make it as similar as possible to the Basque fiscal reime. Spanish PM refused arguing that it wasn't the right time to discuss an improvement of regional financing, because Spain was in the midst of a terrible economic crisis and on the verge of a bailout. Since then, Mas turned to be openly pro-independence and a new phase began.  That was the starting point of the procès, the Catalan drive to independence.

https://www.politico.eu/article/spanish-pm-and-catalan-leader-agree-to-re-open-bilateral-talks/

[Velasco]

Andalusia premier Susana Díaz could move next year's election forward this Autumn.

There are two reasons:

1) The new government led by Pedro Sánchez is honeymooning with public opinion, after the success of the no-confidence motion and the beginning of a new political cycle. Susana Díaz would want to take advantage of the popularity of her main rival in the PSOE while there's a tail wind that favours her interests.

2) The court ruling of the ERE case -a corruption scandal that affects former officials of the regional government- is expected to March 2019, the same month regional elections are scheduled. Andalusian socialists fear a shattering ruling that portrays decades of excesses and self-indulgency. The PSOE has been governing without interruptions since 1980.

Opposition parties are already preparing for a snap election. By the moment no rival to challenge Susana Díaz has been officially appointed, although it's likely the 2014 election candidates repeat. PP leader in Andalusia José Manuel Moreno Bonilla was recently reelected. However, he has to be confirmed candidate by the new PP leadership after the PP national convention on July 20 and 21. Moreno Bonilla is a staunch supporter of Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría and the vote of Andalusians was key for the momentary advantage of the former Deputy PM in the first round of the leadership contest. 

Cs decided to move forward its process to select candidates. Juan Marín, candidate in the 2014 election, is the favourite. According to ABC Sevilla the CS Executive Committee agreed that two independents top the list in Huelva and Jaén provinces.

Podemos, IU, Equo and smaller organizations are in the process of forming a joint list provisionally called Ahora Andalucía (Now Andalusia). The formation will be complex, as usual in these forces of the alternative left. Every party and organization will hold primaries and then they'll have to find a way to arrange the common list. Likely the candidate will be the Podemos leader in Andalusia Teresa Rodríguez. who belongs to the anti-capitalist faction.

A poll released a week ago places PSOE ahead followed by Cs, PP and Podemos-IU

SW Demoscopia

PSOE 38.1% (+2.7%) 47 (=) seats
Cs 21.5% (+12.3%) 23 (+14) seats
PP 19.8% (-7%) 23 (-10) seats
Podemos+IU 14.8% (-6.9%) 16 (-4) seats

https://www.electograph.com/2018/07/andalucia-swdemoscopia-junio18.html

[Velasco]

Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría and Pablo Casado sat together at a "summer dinner party" organized by the PP parliamentary group on Tuesday night. Later the party organization provided pictures of them smiling hugely. However, the truce ended after the dinner. In the following day Casado warned against"gender ideology" and threw out the following question: "is Santamaría so worthless that people votes her only for being a woman?". Santamaría replied: "dividing between ladies in an attempt to find a space is something that I don't like". She meant that Casado tries to take advantage of her rivalry with Cospedal. The former Deputy PM clains that a majority of the PP membership wants a woman leading, because she and Cospedal got 63% of the vote together. Casado rated Santamaría's statements as an "offence gainst women", adding that PP is "committed to talent, regardless of gender". Casado says he can't believe that someone accuses him of male chauvinism, even though he has stated that feminism is a "collectivist movement" that "must be combated by the centre-right" because "liberals" are "committed to individuals and not collectives".

In related news, Pablo Casado and premier Alberto Núñez Feijoó attended together a meeting of party delegates in Galicia. Casado didn't get the explicit endorsement of Feijoó, but receved some "gestures of affection" in exchange. The Galician premier wants to keep a neutral appearance. It won't be surprising that a vast majority of delegates from Galicia votes for Casado, except the delegates from the Ourense province which boss is Feijoo's only rival in the region.

Celeste-Tell poll for eldiario.es

PSOE 27.1% 106-109 seats
PP 24.2%  97-99 seats
Cs 20.6% 62-64 seats
UP 17.7% 51-56 seats
Others 10.4% 26-27 seats

[Velasco]

The decision of the German court was predictable. The arguments of Llarena are unconvincing. Neither Puigdemont nor the Catalan politicians jailed in Spain can be charged with rebellion because what they did is illegal, but it wasn't an attempt to overthrow government by violent means.

Does any other pollster apart from Sociometrica and Simple Lógica predict results for the Vox party?  It's clear that Casado has more appeal with right-wing and far-right voters, those scoring 7-8 and 9-10 in the CIS ideological scale. However, Santamaría should have a better appeal with centre-right voters (5-6) and the battleground for mainstream parties is always on the centre. I'd be surprised if a fringe party with no clear leadership like Vox makes substantial progress, although nothing is impossible. Maybe Casado will have to tone down some of his right-wing stances in case he wins the leadership contest. I think the undercover support of Feijoó and Cospedal makes him the favourite.

[Velasco]

As for Vox and pollsters, it seems that the following pollsters have shown results for Vox in the past:

JM&A (Público; technically not a poll)
Sociométrica (El Español)
Top Position
GAD3 (ABC) (no seats but 1.1% of the vote)

They've also appeared in an NC Report (La Razón) poll for Madrid regional elections (2.8%, no seats).

As for leadership, I wouldn't say Vox has bad leadership, at least not for a party of that size (just compare them to PACMA for example). They seem to have 3 somewhat high profile people: Santiago Abascal (party president), Javier Ortega-Smith (secretary general, leading Vox's accusation of the former catalan government) and probably the best known being Antonio Ortega Lara (very high profile ETA victim, was kidnapped for 532 days).

Though their ceiling is extremely low, there's no way they'll get above like 2% and 1-2 seats.

Santiago Abascal lacks merits to be considered a "high profile" politician. In my opinion he is uncharismatic besides an idiot. Precedents tell us that it's possible for an idiot to become POTUS if your name is Donald Trump and you have some charisma. Possibly there are more examples of idiots and clowns with charisma in the European far-right. That's not the case of Abascal. The only well-known figure in this trio is Ortega Lara because of his terrible experience, but he lacks everything else.

The Vox candidate in the last European elections Alejo Vidal-Quadras was relatively high-profile (radical but not idiot). He was on the verge of winning a seat. Vidal-Quadras was previously a MEP elected in the PP list.

Maybe the result of that EP election indicates what is the most that Vox could win: a seat in Madrid if the party reachs the 3% threshold there. I never thought Simple Lógica is a reliable pollster, on the other hand. This "Top Position" poll looks strange and the pollster is new to me.
 

[Velasco]

Casado's rightward shift opens ideological battle in the PP that splits the party in two. He and his supporters want a "debate of ideas" and a "refoundation"" of the PP, something that Santamaría and her supporters reject arguing that it's not time to discuss a new platform but to elect a new leader. A debate between Santamaría and Casado was discarded due to "lack of consensus".

The Casado campaign has already began the ideological battle with proposals to the right of Rajoy, such as the ban of separatist parties, or going back to the 1985 abortion law* claiming that "abortion is not a right" and the current law passed in 2010 is too permissive and gives "free drink". Leaders like José María Aznar and Esperanza Aguirre have been demanding an "ideological rearm" for years, because they say that a party with no clear ideology is like a "headless chicken". Aguirre complained that, while the PP was in government, she and others warning against "ideological indefinition" were preaching in the desert. But she's no longer crying in the wilderness bacause Pablo Casado has embraced the cause. "I want to launch a national project with a discourse that is recognizable", said the candidate at the beginning of the campaign. On the primary election day Aguirre stated that she voted for Casado "with great illusion".

The campaigns of Casado and Sanatamaría have opposite styles. Casado tries to campaign in a"presidential" style with proposals for legislative changes, while the campaign of Santamaría is more focused on leadership. Supporters of Casado criticize the lack of legislative proposals in the Sanatamaría campaign, as well as her management of the conflict in Catalonia and her failed "Operation Dialogue" with the separatists. Supporters of Sanatamaría rate the critics on Catalonia made by the opposite camp as "opportunistic".

On economic policies Casado stands for "unashamed liberalism". Some of his proposals are the renegotiation of subsidies and their replacement by fiscal incentives, or a "standard tax system" with low rates and no deductions.

A sign of this rightward shift and "ideological rearm" is that María San Gil came out of retirement and attended an event of the Casado campaign, stating that with him she is recuperating enthusiasm. San Gil was the leader of PP in the Basque Country and was notorious by her hardline stance against ETA and nationalists. Casado wants to recruit José Antonio Ortega Lara, the prison officer who was kidnapped by ETA that left PP for the Vox party.

*Abortion in Spain
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Spain#Organic_Law_9/1985

You must be logged in to read this quote.

  

[Velasco]

New set of polls

Sigma Dos / El Mundo

PSOE 26.3%  Cs 24.2% PP 22.3% UP 16.1% ERC 3.2% PDeCAT 1.2% PNV 1.1% Others 5.6%

Invymark/ La Sexta

PSOE 26.5% PP 23.4% Cs 21.9% UP 18.1% Others 10.1%

JM&A / Público*

PSOE 26.4% Cs 23.6% PP 19.7% UP 17.5% Others 12.8%

_{*Estimation by Jaume Miquel & associates}

[Velasco]

An anonymous video spread via social networks and whatsapp with attacks to Santamaría has provoked great anger in the candidacy of the former Deputy PM. The video features Santamaría and some of her supporters (Javier Arenas, Cristóbal Montoro, Celia Villalobos), long-term politiicians deemed unsuited for the party's renewal.  The team of Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría has submitted a formal complaint asking the PP for an investigation, as well as demanding an explanation from Casado's candidacy. "The letter sent by Sanatamaría's team deems the video as an "intolerable attack", as well as an "excercise of pollution and personal questioning".

Anonymous video targeted against Santamaría. Title: "Tell me how are you going to renew us"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkvFSmgHfro

In other news, defense lawyers for jailed Catalan separatist leaders will request their release

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/13/inenglish/1531490884_163779.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Velasco]

Yesterday morning Pedro Sánchez explained his plans for government, 45 days after the no-confidence vote against Mariano Rajoy. The new PSOE government is already experiencing the hardships of its parliamentary weakness, losing a vote to renew the board of the RTVE broadcasting group. Despite the PSOE negotiated an agreement with Unidos Podemos and the PNV, as well as the support of ERC and PDeCAT, the vote failed because two deputies were absent and other two made a mistake. Also, Pedro Sánchez is facing criticism from various sides. PP and Cs accuse him with harsh rhetoric of being indebted with Catalan and Basque nationalists, while the parties supporting the fragile parliamentary majority say that he is already going back on promises. like publishing the names od f tax evaders*

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/17/inenglish/1531813054_774710.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Spanish PM addressed the situation in Catalonia, which is a priority for his administration. In a reply to ERC spokesman Joan Tardá, Sánchez said that "Catalans will have to vote". However, both disagreed on the matter to vote. Catalan separatists want a vote on independence, but Sánchez argues that's not in the Constitution and offers a reform as well as "frank and direct dialogue".

Sánchez also talked about housing, jobs and pensions in his speech, underscoring the importance of the welfare state.

*Pedro Sánchez promised that while in opposition, but now the government argues legal impediments that prevent revealing the names of tax evaders. On the other hand, the Unidos Podemos parliamentary group is requesting a commision of inquiry after some audio recordings of the "special friend" (lover) of emeritus king Juan Carlos surfaced. According to Corinna, Juan Carlos fails to distinguish the legal from the illegal. The father of the incumbent head of state is immune to legal punshment.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/16/inenglish/1531729422_476862.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There were new developments in the PP leadership contest. On Monday morning, María Dolores de Cospedal endorsed officially the candidate Pablo Casado. Later it was revealed that former PM Mariano Rajoy pushed unsuccessfully for an arrangement between the two candidates, in order that both merge in a single list led by Santamaría. With that move, Rajoy broke his promise to remain neutral.

In other news, Matteo Salvini declared war on Spanish NGO rescue ship

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/18/inenglish/1531901276_303984.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A less known fact is that Spain is outnumbering Italy in immigrant arrivals by sea. This year 18,016 people reached the Spanish coast, while 17,827 reached Italy. These changes in the migrant flows are totally unrelated with the xenophobic demagoguery of the Italian Deputy PM, who makes gains by fostering hatred and paranoid obsession on immigration.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/07/17/actualidad/1531855916_995446.html

[Velasco]

New Catalan poll released by El Periódico on Sunday. On the pro-independence side ERC and CUP make gains while Puigdrmont's JxCAT loses ground: the pro-independence majority remains unchanged. On the non-nationalist side PSC advances while Cs makes slight loses, while CatComú-Podem and PP make very slight gains or remain stable. ERC would replace Cs as the first party, both in seats and popular vote.



[im

[Velasco]

Puigdemont's rebellion case is dropped by Spanish Courts.

To be precise, the Supreme Court judge rejected the extradition of Puigdemont, because it's solely on charges of misuse of funds and not on charges of rebellion. He has withdrawn the European arrest warrant against Puigdemont and other separatist politicians who fled Spain. The ruling of the Schleswig-Holstein court is a rebuttal to the theory of judge Llarena, supporting there was "implicit violence" in the October 1 journey. It casts a shadow over the case of the politicians jailed in Spain on the same charges. According to Spanish law the charge of rebellion implies an attempt to overthrow the government by violent means. I find the interpretation of the Spansih judge rigorous and unfounded and, what is worse, it gives a revenge feeling. It's obvious that the Catalan separatist leaders put themselves outside the law. The judiciary should act, keeping a sense of proportion. Maybe the problem is that the environment in Madrid is too strained, with some people claiming that past events in Catalonia were an attempted coup against Spanish democracy. In my opinion the stubbornness of judge Llarena is quite incomprehensible, as well counterproductive.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/19/inenglish/1532005743_590084.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Interesting that the pro-independence majority still would only hold the majority by a few seats.

Also, that ERC poll rise seems to be playing out in the national election, with polls showing it winning over 3% (obviously nationally, and a rise over their last 2.7%)

According to the poll, the balance between pro-independence and 'constitutionalist' parties remains unchanged. There are some transfers within the two blocks, slight increase for ERC and PSC at the expense of JxcAT and Cs respectively. However, there are virtually no vote transfers between blocks. It's worth noting that most of the Cs gains in previous regional elections is at the expense of PSC, especially in Metropolitan Barcelona. Cs also made gains from PP, but the proportion of former PSC voters is higher. In the rest of Spain, Cs is growing mainly at the expense of PP.

[Velasco]

It's tragic that there's a majority for the left in Catalonia, but they can't enter government together cause of the separatist issue.

I'm in the same opinion. There is no solution in the short term.