2020 Senate Elections

[MATTROSE94]

2018: Republicans easily gain Missouri and West Virginia, but lose Nevada, Arizona, Texas, and Tennessee. The Democrats may also pick up Utah if a “Never Trump” Republican such as Evan McMullin runs as a third-party candidate. As a result, the Democrats end up with around 51 or 52 seats.

2020: Democrats narrowly hold onto Alabama and pick up Montana, Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Colorado, and North Carolina, giving them around 58 or 59 seats.

[MATTROSE94]

2018: Republicans easily gain Missouri and West Virginia, but lose Nevada, Arizona, Texas, and Tennessee. The Democrats may also pick up Utah if a “Never Trump” Republican such as Evan McMullin runs as a third-party candidate. As a result, the Democrats end up with around 51 or 52 seats.

2020: Democrats narrowly hold onto Alabama and pick up Montana, Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Colorado, and North Carolina, giving them around 58 or 59 seats.

If Dems are gaining Tennessee and Texas, they are almost certainly not "easily" losing WV and MO to Republicans.

In my opinion, Claire McCaskill faces an uphill battle for re-election in a state that President Trump is still popular in and is already between 3-16 points behind in the polls. I also think that Joe Manchin might switch over to the Republican Party, considering that he voted in favor of most of President Trump’s Congressional agenda. Joe Manchin is also a bit of an odd man out in the Democratic Party, as he is strongly pro-life and pro-gun rights, is opposed to gay marriage, and is conservative on energy policy.

[MATTROSE94]

2018: Republicans easily gain Missouri and West Virginia, but lose Nevada, Arizona, Texas, and Tennessee. The Democrats may also pick up Utah if a “Never Trump” Republican such as Evan McMullin runs as a third-party candidate. As a result, the Democrats end up with around 51 or 52 seats.

2020: Democrats narrowly hold onto Alabama and pick up Montana, Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Colorado, and North Carolina, giving them around 58 or 59 seats.

If Dems are gaining Tennessee and Texas, they are almost certainly not "easily" losing WV and MO to Republicans.

In my opinion, Claire McCaskill faces an uphill battle for re-election in a state that President Trump is still popular in and is already between 3-16 points behind in the polls. I also think that Joe Manchin might switch over to the Republican Party, considering that he voted in favor of most of President Trump’s Congressional agenda. Joe Manchin is also a bit of an odd man out in the Democratic Party, as he is strongly pro-life and pro-gun rights, is opposed to gay marriage, and is conservative on energy policy.

McCaskill has never been more than 6 points behind a named opponent in Josh Hawley, and that was 6 months ago.

Both Josh Hawley and Blaine Luetkemeyer already hit 50% in polls against Claire McCaskill. I know it is a bit early, but Claire McCaskill is definitely the underdog in the 2018 Missouri Senate race.