2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Maxwell]

Antonio Sabato Jr. is challenging my Congresswoman, Julia Brownley.

Since the bench here is so thin, and he has a famous name/decent personal wealth, I think he may actually be one of the strongest possible recruits. His friendliness with the Trump White House has the potential to be a blessing or a curse, depending on how he plays his hand, but this is going to be a fun race to watch.

EDIT: He's said that Obama is a Muslim, and seems to be fairly hardline on immigration -- probably not great things in this particular district

Also, this district voted for Clinton by 22 points over Trump - considering his entire political career has been as a barnacle on the Trump train (mixed metaphor, I know), I doubt he's going to give Brownley a run.

When most Americans think "Antonio Sabato Jr," their minds go to his filmography rather than his more outlandish statements. That's probably the only thing that can save him. :/

Brownley won her 2014 race in large part by successfully defining her opponent as a Tea Partying radical, and he wasn't half the target that Sabato is. If she can do the same this time (and early reports make it seem like his campaign strategy will make this easy for her) she should be fine.

most americans don't think about "Antonio Sabato Jr". He's not even the most prominent flop celebrity to back Trump - Scott Baeo is.

[Maxwell]

RIP Dold vs. Schneider

also RIP any chance Republicans have at this district, and yes, that includes Mark Kirk trying to win back his old district after his embarrassing 2016 Senate campaign.

[Maxwell]

Hochul also only lost that district to Collins by like 2 points a few years ago.

[Maxwell]

Ed Perlmutter changes course and will run for re-election to Congress

Smart Move. Imagine he'll likely challenge Gardner in 2020 and become the Dem nominee favorite and will start as the GE favorite.

why would he run for Senate when he quit instead of running for Governor? doesn't seem like Perlmutter wants a promotion.

[Maxwell]

http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/10/upstate_ny_man_launches_americas_most_radical_congressional_campaign.html

Claudia Tenney recieves a primary challenger running to her left in economics and her right on immigration. Probably doesn't have a chance but kinda interesting.

also interesting considering Tenney ran as an insurgent in the first place.

[Maxwell]

I think Culberson is going to lose this time - he was always a pretty weak incumbent even before the sudden realization his district is vulnerable.

[Maxwell]

Gillespie is very much generic R and that's the problem.

[Maxwell]

Gillespie is very much generic R and that's the problem.

Northam is also very much a generic D.

well, no, generic D didn't endorse Bush for President in 2000 and 2004

[Maxwell]

https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/935716132174123008

Mike Turner a "decent bet" to retire.

OH-10 is R+4.

I mean, I'll defer to Ohio Dems here, but this seems like a decent prospect - a fairly urbanish district, I believe it trended towards Clinton (), Mike Turner had a fairly unique appeal here being the Mayor of Dayton for a while, very popular for a long time. I don't know the benches in this area well, I assume the Dems are gonna have a lot of no names.