It will take exceptional circumstances for a Republican of the caliber likely to win his/her party's nomination to win statewide, especially given how much more urbanized the state is compared to where it was nearly twenty years ago.
Oregon is going the same way, though it lags by about a decade or so.
I think McKenna will win both the GOP nomination and the general election. And about Oregon: I have heard that the parts of OR that are growing the fastest are the rural areas, which are also the most Republican. Doesn't mean that they'll stay that way, but still worth checking out.
And just because the undecideds voted for Obama last time doesn't mean they will this time. Remember that 2008 was a different year politically, especially because of the national Democrat trend you saw that election. I also reject the notion that support for a party in one race necessarily translates to support for them in another. It would seem to me that many, if not most, people split their ticket when they vote. I personally am a Republican but I would probably never fill in my ballot for a straight party ticket (Democrat or Republican) because I'd prefer to go down the ballot and fill it out for each of the individual elections.
