It may be mathematically possible to win without Ohio, but realistically it seems unlikely. I think Iowa and Wisconsin are both slightly more Democratic so although technically possible to win those and lose Ohio it seems unlikely. Ohio is also a very polarized state so even if Obama has a slight edge I doubt it is that big. Regardless of who wins Ohio, it won't be a blowout. I think both sides have a floor of 47% and ceiling of 53% so you are dealing either way with a rather small pool of swing voters. Also turnout is another factor. I am totally against voter supression, but I suspect Obama's lead is partly due to his huge lead amongst younger voters and African-American and the real question is will turnout amongst this group be like it is in 2008 or like it was in most previous elections. If like 2008, it will be tough for Romney to win Ohio, but if more like 2004, not so much. In fact had young voters and African American as a percentage of voters matched their percentage of the overall population, its unlikely Bush would have won Ohio in either 2000 or 2004.
It may be mathematically possible to win without Ohio, but realistically it seems unlikely. I think Iowa and Wisconsin are both slightly more Democratic so although technically possible to win those and lose Ohio it seems unlikely. Ohio is also a very polarized state so even if Obama has a slight edge I doubt it is that big. Regardless of who wins Ohio, it won't be a blowout. I think both sides have a floor of 47% and ceiling of 53% so you are dealing either way with a rather small pool of swing voters. Also turnout is another factor. I am totally against voter supression, but I suspect Obama's lead is partly due to his huge lead amongst younger voters and African-American and the real question is will turnout amongst this group be like it is in 2008 or like it was in most previous elections. If like 2008, it will be tough for Romney to win Ohio, but if more like 2004, not so much. In fact had young voters and African American as a percentage of voters matched their percentage of the overall population, its unlikely Bush would have won Ohio in either 2000 or 2004.
I disagree. Ohio is a toss-up, and so are Iowa and Wisconsin. I base that on historical models, including margins of victory since 1992. Young voters have only been as strongly Democrat as they are now since 2006, and blacks already vote at about 100% rates. Ohio is the ultimate swing stae, and even if Pres. Obama seems to have an edge now, that's no gurnantee he'll carry it in two months.
