2013 Elections in Germany

[Zanas]

Are there any seats in particular the FDP might want to focus on to win seats in the future, if they are stuck in 'below the threshold land'? Or is their vote too thinly distributed for that to ever be a possibility?

Well, seeing as this time around their two best results so far are 9.2% in Düsseldorf I and 8.5% in Bonn, a direct mandate victory doesn't seem to be on the agenda... But anything can happen. Hopefully they die. And so does the SPD.

[Zanas]

Also, on the Bundeswahlleiter site, the count with 254 out of 299 constituencies counted has die Linke at 7.9 and Grünen at 8.2, FDP at 4.8 and AfD at only 4.6. I guess the projections we see on TV take into account that the remaining constituencies lean a bit more Linke and AfD, is that it ?

Everything that's still out is all of Hamburg, all of Bremen, most of Berlin, some random East German seats, some SPD stronghold inner city seats from NRW, and a lot of Hesse. Do the math.
I guess it's possible AfD remains behind the FDP in the end. It's certainly not possible that the FDP's vote goes anywhere but down, though.

I'm sorry I can't just "do the math". I am capable of understanding politics and elections, and even some sociology, but I don't know by heart the strongholds of the ones and the others.

And it seems my question is being answered : ZDF is now projecting FDP ahead of AfD and Greens ahead of Linke.

[Zanas]

Gregor Gysi may have spoken too quickly : it seems that die Linke may only end fourth political force and not third after all, it's rathor thin between them and Grünen.

[Zanas]

It's now neck and neck between Linke and Grünen for third place (though CSU alone is very near behind), you can follow this on this page.

[Zanas]

Can someone please explain the Green pedo scandal? I've been trying to find it in the old comments but I'm having some trouble.

The 'scandal' consists of the fact that back in the late 70s / early 80s, legalization of all nonviolent sexual relations was a radical but not entirely fringe notion. Basically.

Its much more than that: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/past-pedophile-links-haunt-german-green-party-a-899544.html

I'm not completely dissatisfied with the results tonight: the Stasi party and the luddites both appear to have lost votes and a grand coalition appears to be inevitable. Shame about the FDP even if I only liked them for their principled pro-nuclear stance tho'.

So that's why I never missed you in this thread ! Please do keep not coming.

[Zanas]

And Linke still holding onto a 44,000 vote advance on Grünen for now. It's my own little suspense of the night. Even if it has no meaning whatsoever in the end.

[Zanas]

@Sibboleth: Thank you for the map, I like it. Can you also make a map that shows relative changes (i.e. from 15% to 6% means -60%, from 10% to 3% means -70%)? That would be great!

Results from a place where I sometimes like to go by bike (it's a bit hilly):

Voting age population: 332
Voters: 190 (There are also postal voters, so turnout is higher; postal ballots are not counted in the village polling station, but down in town)
Valid PR votes: 190
CSU 153 (80.53%)
SPD 8 (4.21%)
REP 6 (3.16%)
Bavaria Party 6 (3.16%)
Free Voters 6 (3.16%)
FDP 5 (2.63%)
AfD 4 (2.11%)
Animal Welfare 1 (0.53%)
The Left 1 (0.53%)

No, I didn't forget the Greens, Pirates etc., they're all at 0.00%.

@ n/e rep butafly: The FDP has definitely a good chance for a comeback in my eyes.

I would be this one Linke voter should I live there !

Also, 'Muricans should cease speaking about libertarians in any European context whatsoever. This doesn't exist here. At all. Period. Now please do keep on.

[Zanas]

No, but I think they will if they must.

[Zanas]

Besides, as BaconKing pointed earlier, you can have even more disenfranchised voters with a lower threshold, as has been seen in Greece last year. So a lower threshold of 4 or 3% doesn't necessarily (though it does statistically) mean less disenfranchised voters.