CNN - Trump and Sanders lead IA

[Zanas]

I'm surprised no one pointed that before :

On the Pub side, the sample is 266 likely caucus goers. That is a way smaller sample that any poll in 2015, except from two... Gravis polls. It makes for a 6+ pt margin of error, so a bit of caution should be needed here, but hey I don't need to remind y'all psephologists that...

On the Dem side, nothing really better. A sample of 280 likely caucus goers. Again, the only smaller samples have been those two Gravis polls and a Loras one a year back. Again, bit of caution ?

I'm not saying Trump and Sanders are not leading, or have not gained or anything, but the sample size should definitely make this poll count way less than other recent polls in any reasonable aggregator.

[Zanas]

Again with the above reservations, Sanders leads Clinton 51-45 on who's the best to handle healthcare. Seems like the fallacious attacks of the Clinton camp on how Sanders would simply repeal Obamacare and leave all Americans without healthcare failed or even backfired.

[Zanas]

Sorry folks, but the turnout models on these two polls are really bad. Not sure why CNN doesn't hire some decent polling firms.

Considering the 2008 Iowa caucus was 57 / 43 women / men, and this is 50 /50, yes, this is not really representative.

This is not 50/50. They give an 8 pt MoE for the Dem female sample, which points to roughly 150 women, and an 8.5 pt MoE for the male sample, which points to roughly 130 men. This is 53.5/46.5, which is still probably too masculine.

The whole subsample section of this poll is a laugh. It's 50 pages well worth reading for anyone with any notion of statistics !

[Zanas]

Math has your answers, folks!

Men: 63-32 Bernie
Women: 56-38 Hillary

Actual (hypo, but the sampling was equal) - 50/50 men-women, 140 EACH

UNSKEWED TO 2008 REALITY 120 MEN, 160 WOMEN

Among men: 76 vote Bernie, 39 vote Hillary
Among women: 61 vote Bernie, 90 vote Hillary

Overall: Bernie 137, Hillary 129

49 - 46

So there ya go.  Unskewed or whatever.  It's a dead heat by 2008 turnout. 

Ahem.

This is not 50/50. They give an 8 pt MoE for the Dem female sample, which points to roughly 150 women, and an 8.5 pt MoE for the male sample, which points to roughly 130 men. This is 53.5/46.5, which is still probably too masculine.

The whole subsample section of this poll is a laugh. It's 50 pages well worth reading for anyone with any notion of statistics !