You are forgetting that Romney has flip flopped on being a monster, see his performance in GOP primaries. Obama needs to change the narrative about Romney flip flopping and or evolving, and the election will be +5 to +7 for Democrats again.
Any remotely informed voter knows the process and realizes that a primary is not equivalent and therefore treats the rhetoric coming from a primary contest differently than say what was heard at the debates. And furthermore a serious shift in narrative from Obama might further erode faith in his reelection campaign. How many narrative changes must you hope for before you realize it's the entirety of the narrative that is wrong?
Team Obama has obviously failed to depress turnout among Republicans, and there is absolutely nothing that can be done in the next month to tame the hearts on fire among the Republican faithful (If you thought they were fired up in 2010, you ain't seen nothing yet!).
In a word, Obama is finished if Romney and Co. march forward for just four more weeks.
These lines nailed it. With Obama flailing in the wind it won't take much, especially given his collapse with independents.