Which would flip first: Michigan or Minnesota?

[jamesyons]

Michigan, but not by much, with the main reason being the success of Republicans in Michigan in 2010 with them winning all four executive offices while in Minnesota Democrats holding all executive offices.  Michigan seems more elastic with the Democrats having a high floor with the cities of Flint, Detroit, and Lansing while also having a high ceiling with Obama's performance in 2008.  Also Romney was not the best match for Michigan with his opposition to the auto bailout and he was not the best candidate for Republicans to win the white working class voters in Macomb and along the Interstate 94 corridor.  Republican have a formula for winning if they win these voters in addition to the moderate wealth suburbanites in Oakland county.  However in Minnesota Republicans have been losing ground in Rochester which although small does not help them, on the other hand Democrats have lost ground in Collin Peterson's district, Obama probably did about as badly as any Democrat would do there.  Lastly Minneapolis and St. Paul have trended towards the Democrats.