Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[Poirot]

Ipsos poll for La Presse. Sample of over 1100 from web panel and 500 by phone.
PLQ 32%, CAQ 28%, PQ 24%, QS 12%

News article and Ipsos release (in French, I don't see it on their website in English)

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201710/19/01-5140629-a-un-an-des-elections-les-astres-salignent-pour-la-caq.php

http://ipsos.ca/fr/2017/10/20/le-parti-liberal-32/

Franco: CAQ 32%, PQ 29%, PLQ 24%, QS 12%
Non-franco : PLQ 61%, CAQ 12%, QS 12%, PQ 7%

I guess the PLQ has room to grow in non-franco.

Greater Montreal: PLQ 36%, PQ 23%, CAQ 22%, QS 13%
Greater Quebec City: CAQ 40%, PLQ 25%, 16% PQ, 14% QS
Other regions: CAQ 32%, PQ and PLQ 27%, QS 11%

Best Premier: Legault 23%, Couillard 20%, Lisée 13%, QS co-leaders 8%

For second choice, 19% opt for CAQ, 17% PQ, 13% QS, 10% PLQ

34% are satisfied with the government

[Poirot]

Strange that they would both announce the same day.

There are 8 Liberals MNA thinking not running or thinking of their future.
http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201801/16/01-5150152-huit-deputes-liberaux-en-reflexion-quant-a-leur-avenir.php

Jacques Chagnon (Westmount Saint-Louis). It could make room for Hélène David with the loss of one riding in the new map (Outremont / Mont-Royal area).

Past retirement age: Norbert Morin (Côte-du-Sud) and Pierre Reid (Orford)

In the Quebec City region:
Raymond Bernier (Montmorency) André Drolet (Jean-Lesage) and Michel Matte (Portneuf)

Jean-Marc Fournier has not made a decision but Liberals think he will run. Lise Thériault has been nominated already but there are doubts.

[Poirot]

Has there ever been demand for electoral reform in Quebec?

Last year all opposition parties have agreed on the idea of a mixed member proportional sytem based on regions. I don't know if they are all very committed to it of if they would agree on the details of the system.

Around 2006 there was a commission with public hearings on reforms to the electoral law. It covered not only the voting system but I think the recommandation was a MMP system.   

[Poirot]

I think electoral reform has been usually in the PQ policies. The Liberal minister for democratic reform said we are well served by the current system.

With Option Nationale now part of Québec Solidaire, QS has a new logo:


This could create nomination battles between former ON and QS candidates in Taschereau and Jean Lesage ridings.

[Poirot]

Mainstreet just out with a poll for Quebec, have one for New Brunswick and Ontario tomorrow.

CAQ - 32%
PLQ - 31%
PQ - 18% (whoa! this is disastrous for them)
QS - 15%

CAQ has a 6 point lead amongst Francophones.  A strong tightening in the Quebec City region, but CAQ surges ahead in the rest of Quebec.  PLQ well out in front in the Montreal region with the CAQ in a distant second.  So it seems the PLQ rebounding a bit, but PQ in a death spiral and CAQ gaining primarily from them.  Could this be the beginning of the end of the PQ?

If PQ ends under 20% and QS over 10%, this will relaunch the merger/alliance talks.

Might be tough as PQ is very much a party with largely aging members while QS is much more youth oriented.  QS support is strongest in the urban core working class areas while PQ is more in the rural periphery of the province such as Gaspésie, Abitibi, Saguenay (they could even lose that with these numbers) and North Shore.  Still both are separatists and left leaning, but probably the best thing would be let the PQ wither away and instead have the CAQ for the right, Liberals for the middle, and QS for the left, otherwise similar to other provinces, just different labels.

The electoral alliance was refused by QS, I imagine for a future alliance or merger to be accepted the new deal would have to be more left wing, closer to them. It might be too far from  the center. It reminds me of the left wing version of the progressive conservative federally. Conservatives divide the right wiing vote and then regroup in a party that is further from the center and less appealing to the general public.

[Poirot]

There was an Ipsos poll published in La Presse in early February that doesn't seem to mentioned in this thread.

CAQ 34%
PLQ 30%
PQ 23%
QS 8%

Franco: CAQ 40, PQ 29, PLQ 18, QS 8
Non-Franco: PLQ 74, CAQ 12, QS 7, PQ 1

61% time to change government vs 25% keep it

Over the last three years:
economy improved 53% vs 39% worsened
education system improved 33% vs 56% worsened
Health system improved 25% vs 70% worsened 

https://www.ipsos.com/fr-ca/news-polls/la-caq-se-classe-en-tete-des-intentions-de-vote

[Poirot]

Léger poll done in the last days of February.

CAQ 37%
PLQ 26%
PQ 22%
QS 9%
Conservateur 2%, NDPQ 2% Vert 1%

LINK to PDF result
http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Rapport%20Politique%20Provinciale%20-%20MARS%202018%20FINALv.pdf

What is interesting is Léger mentions small parties. It soesn't get full breakdown details for all parties for age, region or language.

Franco: CAQ 42, PQ 27, PLQ 16, QS 11
Non Franco: PLQ 66, CAQ 15, QS 5, PQ 2

This poll has less people satisfied with the government than in their January poll. 22% are satisfied vs 71% not

Best premier: Legault 27%, Couillard 15%, Lisée 14%, Massé 6%

70% want a change of government vs 18% continue with same team
party representing change the most: 30% CAQ, 15% QS, 12% PQ, 9% PLQ

who will win next election?
CAQ 36, PLQ 25, PQ 10, QS 2 (41% franco said CAQ, 44% non-franco said PLQ)

66% think the health minister did a bad job over the last three years vs 19% good job

Over the last 15 years 12% think the health care system has improved, 31% stayed the same, 53% deteriorated

Those who used the health care system, 80% are satisgied with quality of care   

[Poirot]

I think NDPQ is to give a choice for progressive federalists who absolutely need the two elements. I don't remember hearing about them since they chose a leader. It will be difficult for them to get their message out.

The federal NDP isn't officially backing NDPQ because it could vex their QS base,

The QS nominations in Quebec City were won by the two ex-Option Nationale candidates over the last two QS candidates in their respective ridings. Former ON leader Sol Zanetti in Jean-Lesage and Catherine Dorion in Taschereau. QS has said Taschereau is now their biggest riding for membership with 850 (Nadeau-Dubois in Gouin has 800).

[Poirot]

Mainstreet did a poll Feb 28 and March 1st with Interactive voice recording. Decided and leaning results, margin of error 3%.

CAQ 32%
PLQ 27.8%
PQ 19.8%
QS 10.8%
Con 4.!%
NDPQ 2,5%
Other 3%

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/caq-opens-four-point-lead-couillard-liberals/

[Poirot]

So these provincial parties like the NDPQ and Quebec Conservatives exist mostly because Federal Parties like to have a party in all provinces, even if they won't win anything?

Just the NDP (though they've tolerated not having a provincial party for decades; this is a new construct). The provincial conservatives in Quebec are not affiliated with the federal Tories. Most federal Tories support the CAQ.

Is the new NDPQ affiliated with the NDP? I mean officially, like provincial NDP members are also members of the federal NDP? It doesn't seem to be the case with the NDPQ.

If I can trust wikipedia, the Conservative party of Quenec was created in 2009 by two former Union Nationale. After some changes in party leader, the current leader I think was working on the policy for the ADQ. He's more libertarian, against corporate subsidy, state intervention. Maxime Bernier during his leadership race told them if he would try to help them win a seat. 
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_of_Quebec_(2009%E2%80%93present)

For now they are fringe parties with "famous" names. Not sure if they will have candidates in all ridings.

[Poirot]

Jean-Martin Aussant is back in the PQ, which is kind of like jumping from the Titanic to the Andrea Doria.

http://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/02/21/jean-martin-aussant-annoncera-son-retour-au-pq-jeudi_a_23367846/

Aussant wants the nomination in Pointe-aux-Trembles. He has the support of retiring MNA. The problem for him is Maxime Laporte declared for the nomination right after the retirement announcement. Laporte succeeded Mario Beaulieu has head of the Société Saint-Jean-Baptiste. Beaulieu the local MP, supports him as is former premier Bernard Landry.

[Poirot]

The CAQ doesn't face nomination battles because candidates are picked by the leader. Some have experience getting elected.

In Pointe-aux-Trembles they have Chantal Rouleau who has been re-elected last November as mayor of Rivière-des-Prairies - Pointe-aux-Trembles borough. Legault said his internal poll had her neck and neck with the PQ.

In Verchères Suzanne Dansereau was mayor of Contrecoeur before retiring last November.

In Dubuc François Tremblay has been a councillor in Saguenay and president of La Baie borough. He chose not to run in the last municipal election.

André Bachand in Richmond. He was a PC MP for Richmond-Arthabaska and later served as ambassador to UNESCO.

[Poirot]

There has been an increase of migrants crossing the border. It is predicted it could rise again in the coming months. This could happen during the summer pre-campaign. 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/quebec-sees-surge-in-border-crossings-600-entered-last-weekend-1.3873597

The Quebec government is asking the federal government to pay $146 million for expenses caused by the migrant crisis.

The religious symbols debate reappeared when Montreal mayor siad she was open to religious head covering by police officers. Provincial opposition parties are against (the idea that people in coercive function - judge, police officer, prison guard - should not wear religious symbols.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-mayor-supports-allowing-police-to-wear-religious-head-coverings-1.4604502

[Poirot]

Léger poll done April 6 to 8 on the web.
http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Politique%20provinciale%20%20QC-Avril%2020182.pdf

Léger had the biggest lead among of the three pollsters last month. The lead has narrowed and is now more in line with the other two last poll.

CAQ 34%
PLQ 29%
PQ 21%
QS 9%
Vert 3%
Cons 2$
NPDQ 1%

The PLQ has increased its vote among non-francophones. It's at 75% with all other parties below 10%. The francophone vote numbers are stable: CAQ 41, PQ 25, PLQ 16, QS 11. Léger probably has the worst PLQ franco result.
CAQ has 47% in Quebec City area and 41% in Quebec's "regions".

Gender imbalance for CAQ and QS. CAQ scores 37% with men and 30% with women. QS has 6% men and 13% women.
By age group, the PLQ leads the 18-34 years old with 35%. in the over 55 CAQ has 40% followed by PLQ at 28%.

27% are satisfied with the government (57% among non-franco), 66% are not satisfied (75% among franco).

For best Premier, every leader gets less than their party's vote intention. Legault leads with 28%, the others have abouth half the party's voting intentions.

The parties that never held power represent change. 31% say CAQ represents change the most, 15% QS, 10% for the other two.

36% think CAQ will win next election, PLQ 27%. PQ 9%, QS 2%.

From a list of issues proposed by the pollster, the priority for the next election campaign:
22% lower taxes
15% better care for elderly
11% better access to family doctor
11% reduce hospital emergency wait time
11% create and maintain jobs
10% give teachers bettere means to educate students

A question on immigration level.
5% think increase immigration a lot.
10% increase a little
38% maintain
30% diminish
14% totally stop immigration

Source of information in the next election: 52% tv, 19% social media, 17% newspaper, 12% radio. Among the 18-34 social media is first.

[Poirot]

Looks like it's based on a millenial sample of 122 so could be due to that. In the last Mainstreet poll the 18-34 were 29% CAQ and 23% PLQ. The older subgroup is not divided like Léger. The over 65 prefer PLQ with 42% over CAQ 26%. And they have a 50-64 age group that goes 38% CAQ to 26% CAQ.

[Poirot]

Jean-Martin Aussant is back in the PQ, which is kind of like jumping from the Titanic to the Andrea Doria.

http://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/02/21/jean-martin-aussant-annoncera-son-retour-au-pq-jeudi_a_23367846/

Aussant wants the nomination in Pointe-aux-Trembles. He has the support of retiring MNA. The problem for him is Maxime Laporte declared for the nomination right after the retirement announcement. Laporte succeeded Mario Beaulieu has head of the Société Saint-Jean-Baptiste. Beaulieu the local MP, supports him as is former premier Bernard Landry.

Jean-Martin Aussant won the PQ nomination with 64% of the votes.

[Poirot]

Has there ever been demand for electoral reform in Quebec?

Last year all opposition parties have agreed on the idea of a mixed member proportional sytem based on regions. I don't know if they are all very committed to it of if they would agree on the details of the system.

Recently Legault said he was for a mixed proportional system. I guess the three opposition parties are still for it.

[Poirot]

Hatman sees in the future... a journalist from Le Soleil newspaper has an article on electoral reform.

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/politique/un-scrutin-proportionnel-pourrait-mener-a-plus-de-sieges-4d1d00776d2514a4e50e50d9837f91d7

Opposition parties agree on the principle of proportional but need to have a consensus on the precise formula. They have a report from the organization pushing for electoral reform. It suggests a mixed proportional sytem with national compensantion and regional distribution. There could be a few more seats than the current 125.

People would cast two votes. One for a candidate in the riding and one for a party. 75 candidates elected in constituencies and about 50 elected from regional list made by parties based on the entire Quebec vote share. There would be eight regions for compensation. It suggests a treshold of 2% to be in the Assembly financial incentives based on the number of women elected, measures so candidates of women, visible minorities and immigrants reflects their proportion in each region, and submit a law for reform within 90 days after the next election.       

[Poirot]

Mainstreet has a new poll. Done April 7-9 with automated telephone interviews.

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-tied-with-caq-overall-but-trail-in-every-region-except-the-island-of-montreal/

The decided and leaning numbers (they are giving decimals but I will round numbers):

CAQ 30%
OLQ 30%
PQ 16%
QS 12%
Conservateur 4%
NDPQ 4%
Other 4%

Franco: CAQ 33%, PLQ 25%, PQ 18%,  QS 14%, Con 3.5%, ONDP 3.4%
Non-franco: PLQ 62%, Con 9.5%, NDPQ 8.6%, CAQ 8%, PQ 4%, QS 1%, Other 7%

age 18-34: CAQ 32, PLQ 30

Opinion on the last budget: Very good 10, Good 29, Bad 23, Very bad 12, Not sure 26
Budget makes 17.7% more likely to vote PLQ, 46% no effect, 23% less likely, 13% not sure  

[Poirot]

There was a riding poll for Rosemont, done April 3-10 by IVR, 555 people, margin of error 4%.

PQ 27%
CAQ 24%
QS 21%
PLQ 18%

NDPQ will probably have Paulina Ayala as candidate. She was NDP MP for Honoré-Mercier. In the same news story, it is reported the party will have a logo and website next week and could possibly run 40 to 60 candidates in the election.

[Poirot]

Given the PLQ's relatively inefficient vote, by approximately how much do they need to win the popular vote by to win the most seats? To win a majority?

Too close to call has posted about this. If PLQ is ahead by 2.5%, each party has 50% chanve of winning the most seats. I think that is in the situation both parties are in the low 30% and the PQ is at 20% and wins at least a dozen seats. When there were two parties the PLQ needed to be ahead by maybe 4-5% to win.

I don't know if it's because of the Mainstreet polls that show CAQ lead decreasing but Legault is already pitching strtaegic voting to PQ voters because he's the only alternative to replace the Liberals. Usually this happens later. Mainstreet in the last months had a CAQ lead smaller than Léger.

I received an automated call from Bellwether technologies for a survey on voting intentions. I've never heard of them so was suspicious it was not a public survey but party polling.   

[Poirot]

Le Soleil also has Mainstreet poll results for the ridings of party leaders.

Rosemont: PQ 34.7, QS 29.5, PLQ 16.3, CAQ 13.9, Other 5.6

Ste-Marie St-Jacques: QS 43.5,  PQ 24.5, PLQ 14.6% CAQ 10, Other 7.4

L'Assomption: CAQ 55.4%, QS 15.2, PQ 12.9, PLQ 9.1, Other 7.4

Roberval: PLQ 33.9%, CAQ 23.3, PQ 11.8, QS 6.1% Other 4.3 

Léger has a poll tomorrow for The Gazette and Le Devoir. His preview is:
44% of Quebecers said that debates might influence their choice.

To compare with Léger here are other results in Le Solei article for Mainstreet.
Franco vote: CAQ 35, PQ 23, PLQ 21, QS 18
Quebec City: CAQ 46, PLQ 21, PQ 16, QS 12
Montreal suburbs: CAQ 36, PLQ 25
Regions: CAQ 34, PQ 25
Women: CAQ 30, PLQ 25
18-34 : QS 31% with the three others between 20-23%

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2018/sondage-mainstreet-la-caq-garde-son-avance-b6a3b789ebb073f3cc621b7597f27001

[Poirot]

The Roberval figures don't add up to 100%.  Is there something missing?

Maybe for this one the full riding results reported were raw numbers and the rest undecided. The text mentions Couillard leading 42% to 29%
https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/lisee-se-fait-chauffer-les-oreilles-dans-rosemont-d0ae0a29f548d804e01eb546e7aa7edc

A previous poll in the summer had the parties almost tied but candidate's name were not part of the question. I don't know how strong ties the CAQ candidate has to the riding. She was elected on the Quebec City city council and a CAQ MNA for Charlesbourg.   

Le Quotidien has the result for the other 4 ridings in the region. CAQ leads in all but some polls were done in August.
https://www.lequotidien.com/actualites/couillard-reprend-lavance-dans-roberval-e5c037c4ecfba017713d5ce47297c2ec

[Poirot]

To compare with Léger here are other results in Le Solei article for Mainstreet.
Franco vote: CAQ 35, PQ 23, PLQ 21, QS 18
Quebec City: CAQ 46, PLQ 21, PQ 16, QS 12
Montreal suburbs: CAQ 36, PLQ 25
Regions: CAQ 34, PQ 25
Women: CAQ 30, PLQ 25
18-34 : QS 31% with the three others between 20-23%

Léger
CAQ 35, PLQ 29, PQ 21, QS 11, Green 2, NDPQ 1, QConservative 1

Franco: CAQ 42, PQ 25, PLQ 17, QS 12
Non franco: PLQ 70, CAQ 11, PQ 7, QS 7, Green 3, NDPQ 2
Franco number for PLQ is higher in Mainstreet but lower overall so it must have much worse number for non-franco.

Quebec City: CAQ 42, PLQ 21, PQ 14, QS 11, QConservative 8
Haven't seen the Mainstreet number for Quebec Conservative but 8% if true would be big for them.

Rest of Quebec: CAQ 44, PLQ 24, PQ 19, QS 9
Mainstreet showed a tighter CAQ PQ race

Women: CAQ 35% PLQ 28%, PQ 19, QS 13
Like Mainstreet CAQ leads

18-34: CAQ and PLQ 28, PQ 21, QS 18
Mainstreet has QS first with 31%

Léger poll results pdf
http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/PolitiqueprovincialeQCEN_20180911.pdf

Satisfaction with government drop back to 29%

Second choice of voters from:
CAQ: PQ 36, PLQ 22, QS 17, Another 9
PLQ: CAQ 32, Another 22, QS 10, PQ 9
PQ: CAQ 39, QS 26, Another 13, PLQ 6
QS: PQ 31, CAQ 21, Another 20, PLQ 13

Expected winner of the leader,s debate
Legault 19%, Couillard 18, Lisée 16, Massé 7, Don't know 39
Seems like nobody has to meet high expectations

[Poirot]

Elections Quebec says there are 940 candidates for an average of 7.5 per riding.
Gaspé and Iles-de-la-Madeleine have the least with 4, Laurier-Dorion the most with 12.

The 4 main parties have 125 candidates.
Conservative Party of Quebec 101
Green Party 97
Nouveau Parti démocratique du Québec 59
Citoyens au pouvoir du Québec 56
Bloc pot 29
Parti marxiste-léniniste 25
The other parties run less than 20 candidates.

40% of candidates are women