Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)

[Lumine]

April 1st:

Chile Vamos:

• With Jose Antonio Kast declining to take part in the primary, the field has been reduced to Piñera, Ossandon and Felipe Kast. Piñera has started his candidacy by recieving the formal support of RN, UDI and PRI while putting forward some proposals such as scaling back on Bachelet's educational reforms. Piñera continues to lead the polls despite constant and permanent attacks from the left and even parts of the right, but it remains to be seen whether his floor is too low to win.
• Negotiations for the Parliamentary elections continue to be heated as RN and UDI demand a larger share of candidates, and PRI and Evopoli insist in fighting the election on an equal number of candidates for each party. It has gotten so bad Evopoli made a disguised threat to leave Chile Vamos and seek negotiation with other parties, which would also kill off the primary here and leave the right with as much as 4 candidates on the first round.

Nueva Mayoria:

• Despite his meteoric rise Senator Alejandro Guillier is losing ground in the polls, recieving a lot of fire from the Frente Amplio and having a bit of a love-hate relationship with the government. Guillier's dilemma is that he needs the support of the parties and the government to win his primary, but that support can drag him down due to Bachelet's unpopularity. Carolina Goic hasn't been doing bad as well, cementing the support of her party and becoming a potential threat.
• The Socialist Party (PS) made for some shocking developments as it announced it was ending its internal primary, believing party candidates Atria and Insulza to be a hopeless cause. Their candidate will instead be chosen by the central committee. In response, Insulza ended his candidacy, stating he was not willing to carry on without a primary. Atria's bid is expected to end soon as well, the party then choosing between Lagos or Guillier.

Frente Amplio:

• After announcing her candidacy Beatriz Sanchez appears to have risen as the frontrunner for the Frente Amplio, which will hold a smaller set of primaries than the official July primaries for the Nueva Mayoria and Chile Vamos. Sanchez won over a Revolucion Democratica primary (although with 85% of the party members abstaining) and has begun to register in the polls, but it remains to be seen who else will join her and Alberto Mayol in the field.

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
(DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC)

Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD-PS) - Announced, endorsed by PPD
Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced, endorsed by PRSD
Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Announced, endorsed by DC

Chile Vamos:
(UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli)

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Announced, endorsed by PRI, RN and UDI
Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced

PRO:

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced, endorsed by PRO

Todos:

TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures (6,000 so far)

Pais:

Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced, endorsed by Pais

Sentido Futuro:
(Ciudadanos + Amplitud + Red Liberal)

Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative

Frente Amplio:
(RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH and Partido Liberal, among others)

Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Announced
Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Announced, , endorsed by RD and MA.

Activist Luis Mesina (No+AFP's) - Speculative
Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative

Independent, Other:

Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (IND) - Announced, 33,000 signatures (5,000 to go)
Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) -  Announced, gathering signatures
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures
Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) – Announced
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced

[Lumine]

I don't know if you explained earlier, but why was Pinera so unpopular during his time in office?

There were a lot of factors, but I would say there were two basic things that made the most impact: First, that Piñera was an able administrator but a "good politician" in the sense that he had no narrative, nor a way to capitalize on his accomplishments or when he scored a success. Add to that his constant malapropisms and he also became a figure of ridicule.

What killed his presidency in a way was 2011. By the end of 2010 he was on a high note (particularly after the successful rescue of 33 miners trapped in a collapsed mine), but social movements scored several successful hits against the government (starting with fuel protests in Magallanes) which hurt his standing. And then the student movement of 2011 derailed his presidency, making his approval ratings collapse when the government made a mess of the process and was seen as unable to provide necessary reforms or solutions.

From there on Piñera was unable to rebound no matter how hard he tried, his approvals being so low (although in retrospect they were actually much higher than Bachelet) that during the 2012 Municipal elections most of the right-wing candidates wouldn't even consider including Piñera in their propaganda. In the end the 2013 election took attention off La Moneda and Piñera was able to slowly recover, leaving in March 2014 with about 50% approval. The general sense is that Bachelet should rebound as well on her last year, but it's been such an unpopular presidency that it's by no means certain.

[Lumine]

April 2:

• Following Insulza's departure and attacking the decision to have the PS party leadership decide the party's candidate, Fernando Atria dropped out of the race today. With his departure the Socialists won't be fielding a presidential candidate of their own, leaving only Lagos, Guillier and Goic for the Nueva Mayoria primary. The PS is reportedly very divided between Lagos and Guillier, and it's not easy to forsee who will be nominated.
• TV personality Nicolas Larrain has redoubled his efforts to become a candidate in the presidential election, although due to not having been taken too seriously as a contender he has only gathered about 6,000 signatures, with his bid looking unlikely to reach the first round. In contrast, independent Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (from the conservative hard-right) has gathered about 33,000, and is all but assured to reach the first round.
• Two times presidential candidate Marco Enriquez-Ominami announces that he will be a candidate in the election, his campaign virtually assured to reach the first round as the PRO has virtually all the signatures it needs to be a legal party. He has been holding talks with the Communists for a potential parliamentary pact.
• Senator Navarro presses ahead with his quixotic bid with his small PAIS party, and has restarted talks with the Frente Amplio to see if PAIS is allowed in. The Frente Amplio parties are believed to be insistent that Navarro must drop his bid for his party to be included back, unwilling to let him participate in the coalition's primaries.

[Lumine]

April 10th:

• The Central Committee of the Socialist Party (PS) held its meeting yesterday, delivering a resounding victory for Guillier by oficially endorsing him (with 60 or so votes against Lagos's 30 or so). With Guillier now having the support of PR, PS, MAS and IC (and possibly the Communists too), Lagos is believed to have suffered an absolutely crippling blow, many calling for him to stand down despite PPD's attempts to convince him to stay on. He should make his intentions known later tosay.
• Freemason Grand Maester Luis Riveros ends his brief candidacy, arguing his role does not allow him to run for President. In terms of new candidates, this week sees the entrance of Todos's Party Chairman Nicolas Shea, who will contest the Todos primary against Nicolas Larrain, and activist Luis Mariano Rendon, who joins Sanchez and Mayol in the Frente Amplio primaries with the support of the Pirate Party.
• Having no credible candidate for their coalition, the liberal centrist Sentido Futuro (Amplitud, Ciudadanos, Red Liberal) appears to rule out fielding a presidential candidate at all, focusing fully on the parliamentary elections. While Ciudadanos (Andres Velasco's movement) has found success in gathering signatures and will be legalized on several regions, Amplitud (Lily Perez's party, a liberal splinter from RN) is no expected to survive the year.
• With Lagos being mortally wounded and Guillier being hailed as the savior of the Nueva Mayoria (mostly because he polls better, which even high ranking supporters have admitted), the Christian Democrats (DC) may be facing a crossroads with their candidate Carolina Goic. While Goic's bid has united and energized the party, going alone against Guillier with all the other parties backing him is not an acceptable course of action for the DC, leading many to push for Goic to actually go to the first round (which would be a seismic decision for the center-left).

[Lumine]

A few minutes ago, former President Ricardo Lagos announced he was dropping out of the race, the refusal of PS to nominate him having ended his chances. Despite having started the presidential campaign all by himself last September and having successfully undermined and sunk the campaigns of Isabel Allende, Jorge Tarud and Jose Miguel Insulza Lagos was unable to rise in the polls, seen by many as too old, too outdated to be a candidate. His withdrawal leaves the Nueva Mayoria at a confusing moment, having lost its entire presidential field (minus Carolina Goic) to the rise of Senator Alejandro Guillier.

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
(DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC)

Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced, endorsed by PRSD, PS, MAS and IC.
Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Announced, endorsed by DC.

Chile Vamos:
(UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli)

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Announced, endorsed by PRI, RN and UDI.
Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced, endorsed by Evopoli.

PRO:

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced, endorsed by PRO.

Todos:

TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures (6,000 so far)
Party Chairman Nicolas Shea (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures

Pais:

Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced, endorsed by Pais.

Sentido Futuro:
(Ciudadanos + Amplitud + Red Liberal)

Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative, probably won't field a candidate.

Frente Amplio:
(RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH, PP and Partido Liberal, among others)

Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Announced, endorsed by ND.
Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Announced, endorsed by RD and MA.
Activist Luis Mariano Rendon (PP) - Announced, endorsed by PP.

Activist Luis Mesina (No+AFP's) - Speculative
Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative

Independent, Other:

Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (IND) - Announced, 33,000 signatures (5,000 to go)
Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) -  Announced, gathering signatures
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures and endorsed by DRP and minor parties.
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Criteria Research, April 13th:

Bachelet Approval: 18%/75%

Chile Vamos Primary:
(among center-right, right voters)

Piñera 71%, Ossandon 17%, F. Kast 6%, Undecided 6%

Nueva Mayoria Primary:
(among center-left, left voters)

Guillier 70%, Goic 15%, Lagos 7%, Undecided 9%

Frente Amplio Primary:
(among left voters)

Sanchez 84%, Mesina 5%, Mayol 4%, Undecided 8%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 33%, Guillier 18%,  Sanchez 11%, Parisi 6%, Ossandon 4%, Lagos 2%, Ominami 2%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 54%, Guiller 18%, Sanchez 6%, Parisi 2%, Ossandon 2%, Goic 1%, Lagos 1%, Other/None 15%

Piñera/Guillier round: Piñera 41%, Guillier 37%, Undecided 22%

Piñera/Sanchez round: Piñera 43%, Sanchez 32%, Undecided 26%

Piñera/Lagos round: Piñera 45%, Lagos 13%, Undecided 42%

Piñera/Goic round: Piñera 45%, Goic 18%, Undecided 37%

[Lumine]

April 16th:

• Luis Mariano Rendon's candidacy recieves a veto from several Frente Amplio parties, leaving him outside of the primary. With Mayol and Sanchez the sole candidates now (and a Sanchez victory seen as imminent), the Humanist Party (PH) has endorsed Sanchez, and the Socialist Allendist Movement has endorsed Mayol.
• The division inside the Nueva Mayoria deepens as Goic states in an interview that she doesn't believe a primary is viable anymore, and intends to go to the first round. While the Christian Democrats will make a formal decision on April 28th tensions run high in the governing coalition, with the sole possibility of primaries currently provided by the unlikely scenario PPD runs a sacrificial lamb against Guillier for the sake of having a primary.
• The process of gathering signatures for political parties ends, and after a desperate effort most of the large political parties (and a few of the minor ones) reach the necessary thresholds to keep existing. Preliminary reports suggest about half of the 32 current parties will survive, the others ceasing to be legal entities.
• The far-left political party Union Patriotica (UPA) (which surprisingly gathered enough signatures to become legalized) will field their leader Eduardo Artés as a candidate in the election, adding a new number to the list.

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
(DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC)

Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced, endorsed by PRSD, PS, MAS and IC.
Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Announced, endorsed by DC (?).

Chile Vamos:
(UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli)

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Announced, endorsed by PRI, RN and UDI.
Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced.
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced, endorsed by Evopoli.

Democracia Cristiana:

Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Increasingly likely.

PRO:

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced, endorsed by PRO.

Todos:

TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures.
Party Chairman Nicolas Shea (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures.

Pais:

Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced, endorsed by Pais.

Union Patriótica:

Party Chairman Eduardo Artés (UPA) - Announced, endorsed by UPA.

Frente Amplio:
(RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH, MSA and Partido Liberal, among others)

Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Announced, endorsed by ND and MSA.
Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Announced, endorsed by RD, MA and PH.

Independent, Other:

Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (IND) - Announced, has enough signatures.

Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) -  Announced, gathering signatures.
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures and endorsed by DRP and minor parties.
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced.
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced.

[Lumine]

What little I've read about Pinera is that he's kind of a goof and not a great politician. Is he the only candidate on the right with the caliber enough to run for President?

For the moment, yes, I think he is the only one on the right with real chances to win. He is son of a DC politician (Jose Piñera) and voted No on the 1988 referendum, so he isn't your typical right wing Pinochet supporter. I heard once that even he joined RN because in DC  he was not chosen to run as Senator (its a rumor, but I think there is some truth in that). He is loathed in the some sectors of the right (particularly in UDI) but they know he is their only chance to return to La Moneda.

Is important that  although he is very goofy and looks very awkward he is a very talented politician. His  real weakness are his investments, he suffers financial incontinence.

Couldn't have said it better, sadly there isn't anyone else on the right that can both unite the sector to a decent extent and win. Jose Antonio Kast is too right-wing and now running outside the coalition, Felipe Kast too moderate and liberal to command support from the conservatives, and Ossandon too boisterous, and has burned several bridges with potential allies.

We can add to that the aftermath of the 2013 election, in which several potential candidates for the right ran with terrible results (Golborne was forced to drop out, Allamand was badly bruised after a primary loss, Longueira collapsed due to his "nervous breakdown" and Matthei never had a real shot at winning) and stopped being future candidates for president.

So for the time being it can only be Piñera, who can boast of having experience and a successful record on the economy despite his other mistakes, who has a profile of being relatively moderate and close to the center on some issues (particularly close with voters who normally go for the Christian Democrats), and who has been skillful enough to be nominated by three our of four parties inside Chile Vamos.

He is very much prone to malapropisms and goofy moments, but I wouldn't underestimate Piñera. Not everybody can remain as a protagonist in the political stage after 30 years, and certainly there's few people who can survive as much as Piñera has managed to so far.

[Lumine]

Would a coalition between Sentido Futuro+Parisi+DC viable with Goic as front banner?

Not a chance for arrangements including Parisi. There's not much to agree on between DC and Parisi, whose taking a sharp turn towards staunch social conservatism to chase the evangelical vote rather than remain a centrist populist of sorts.

As to Sentido Futuro that's actually a fascinating possibility, and I wouldn't say it's 100% impossible. Ciudadanos, which makes up of half the Sentido Futuro bloc is a party which includes many former DC party members, and Velasco probably has a lot in common with Goic. On the other hand, Amplitud is still a liberal center to center-right party with a lot of Piñera supporters forming part of it.

I would say it depends on the parliamentary negotiations. If the Nueva Mayoria parties punish the DC by excluding them of their parliamentary list, then there is a small chance for Goic to seek arrangements with Sentido Futuro, who are virtually assured of not running a presidential candidate of their own.

[Lumine]

Wow, how come Lagos is doing so terribly?

Too old. Not because of age itself, but because Lagos has fully become a figure of the past seen as too outdated to lead the country. Add to that the fact that his reputation has tanked from the heights of 2006 because of corruption cases that took place under his government, the flak of the Transantiago transport system, and the fact that with Chilean politics having moved to the left Lagos is not seen as a credible candidate for the left by many, particularly younger votes.

Lagos showed he is still a brilliant political operation due to how effective he was at eliminating virtually the entire primary field of Nueva Mayoria minus Goic and Guillier (a very successful "scorched earth" strategy from his point of view), but he has stopped being a credible candidate. That's why he didn't manage to catch on, and why PS dropped him like a rock to back the candidate who was polling better.

[Lumine]

Parisi is a joke candidate and should be treated like that. I honestly believe that his campaign is a ponzi scheme to collect the post-election refund.

That too. He might do somewhat well if he is actually successful at garnering a large part of the evangelical vote, but it is truly embarrassing to see him as a presidential candidate again.

[Lumine]

Agreed, although I'll note that unlike Guillier, Lagos actually had political views, ideas and a platform, so I certainly rate him higher.

In that sense, consider me amongst the right wingers who lamented his departure, lol

[Lumine]

April 29th:

Another DC Convention was held today, holding a vote on whether to enter the first round or fight a losing battle against Guillier in the Nueva Mayoria Primaries. Despite heavy pressure from the Party Chairmen of the coalition, Guillier and particularly President Bachelet, the vote from the internal party delegates was 379 to 223 (62% to 38%) to go with Senator Goic to the first round. With the Nueva Mayoria parties making it clear they will not accept a parliamentary arrangement with the DC should they go the first round, it appears the governing coalition will indeed fully split at the election.

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
(PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC)

Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced, endorsed by PRSD, PS, MAS, IC, PPD and PC.

Chile Vamos:
(UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli)

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Announced, endorsed by PRI, RN and UDI.
Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced.
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced, endorsed by Evopoli.

Democracia Cristiana:

Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Announced, endorsed by DC.

PRO:

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced, endorsed by PRO.

Todos:

TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures.
Party Chairman Nicolas Shea (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures.

Pais:

Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced, endorsed by Pais.

Union Patriótica:

Party Chairman Eduardo Artés (UPA) - Announced, endorsed by UPA.

Frente Amplio:
(RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH, MSA and Partido Liberal, among others)

Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Announced, endorsed by ND and MSA.
Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Announced, endorsed by RD, MA and PH.

Independent, Other:

Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (IND) - Announced, has enough signatures.

Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) -  Announced, gathering signatures.
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures and endorsed by DRP and minor parties.
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced.
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced.

[Lumine]

May 18th:

With Nueva Mayoria formally split (all non-DC parties have endorsed Guillier, and there's heavy talk of rebranding the coalition) and Guillier searching for signatures to enter the first round, Chile Vamos and the Frente Amplio are gearing up for their primaries on early July, hoping to achieve high levels of turnout in a show of strenght for their candidates. Former Presidential candidate Roxana Miranda (far-left, 1,27% in the 2013 Election) joins the field, a critic of the old parties and the Frente Amplio alike.

Beatriz Sanchez is the Frente Amplio nominee in all but name (inching closer and closer to Guillier in the polls, with challenger Alberto Mayor not even surpassing 2% in primary polls), whereas the fight is turning more bitter inside Chile Vamos, with Senator Ossandon continuing his ceaseless attacks on Piñera as tensions rise due to the negotiation for the primary debates and the parliamentary election.

Political scandals continue to develop, on one side to the questionable investments of Piñera, and particularly this week due to the news that the Partido Socialista (PS) had enormous sums of money invested in countless companies, some of them linked for example to Mr. Ponce Lerou, Augusto Pinochet's son-in-law. All in all, things are starting to get fun.

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
Senator Alejandro Guiller (Ind) - Endorsed by PRSD, PS, MAS, IC, PPD and PC.

Chile Vamos:
Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Endorsed by PRI, RN and UDI.
Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind)
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) - Endorsed by Evopoli.

Frente Amplio:
Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Endorsed by RD, MA, PH, Poder and IA.
Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Endorsed by ND, MSA and IC.

Democracia Cristiana:
Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Endorsed by DC.

PRO:

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Endorsed by PRO.

Todos:
TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Gathering signatures.
Party Chairman Nicolas Shea (Todos) - Gathering signatures.

Pais:
Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Endorsed by Pais.

ANDHA:
Former candidate Roxana Miranda (ANDHA) - Endorsed by ANDHA.

Union Patriótica:
Party Chairman Eduardo Artés (UPA) - Endorsed by UPA.

Independent:

Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (IND) - Has reached enough signatures

Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) -  Gathering signatures.
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Gathering signatures.
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Gathering signatures.
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Gathering signatures.

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, May 22nd:

Bachelet Approval: 22%/67%

Presidential:

Voting Intention:

Piñera 26% (+2)
Guillier 14% (-1)
Sanchez 8% (-1)
Ossandon 4%
Goic 3%
Parisi 2% (+1)
F. Kast 1%
Ominami 1%
J. A. Kast 1% (+1)
Others 4% (+1)
Undecided 36% (-3)

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 54%, Guiller 18%, Sanchez 4%, Ossandon 2%, Goic 1%, Ominami 1%, Parisi 1%, Other/None 19%

It's a bit of a lazy thing to do, but if you add candidates accounting for coalitions you get:

Chile Vamos: 32%
Nueva Mayoria: 17%
Frente Amplio: 8%
Others: 7%

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, June 19th:

Bachelet Approval: 27%/62%

Presidential:

Voting Intention:

Piñera 25%
Guillier 13%
Sanchez 9%
Ossandon 6% (+1)
Goic 2% (+1)
F. Kast 2% (+1)
Mayol 2% (+1)
Parisi 1%
Ominami 1%
Others 5%
Undecided 34% (-6)

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 56%, Guiller 14%, Sanchez 4%, Ossandon 2%, Goic 1%, F. Kast 1%, Other/None 22%

If you consider coalitions:

Chile Vamos: 33%
Nueva Mayoria: 15%
Frente Amplio: 11%
Others: 7%

In other (minor) news, quixotic candidate and TV personality Nicolas Larrain drops out today to endorse Felipe Kast (and the eventual Chile Vamos nominee), leaving the field as follows:

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
Senator Alejandro Guiller (Ind) - Endorsed by PRSD, PS, MAS, IC, PPD and PC.

Chile Vamos:
Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Endorsed by PRI, RN and UDI.
Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind)
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) - Endorsed by Evopoli.

Frente Amplio:
Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Endorsed by RD, MA, PH, Poder and IA.
Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Endorsed by ND, MSA and IC.

Democracia Cristiana:
Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Endorsed by DC.

PRO:

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Endorsed by PRO.

Todos:
Party Chairman Nicolas Shea (Todos) - Gathering signatures.

Pais:
Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Endorsed by Pais.

ANDHA:
Former candidate Roxana Miranda (ANDHA) - Endorsed by ANDHA.

Union Patriótica:
Party Chairman Eduardo Artés (UPA) - Endorsed by UPA.

Independent:

Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (IND) - Has reached enough signatures

Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) -  Gathering signatures.
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Gathering signatures.
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Gathering signatures.
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Gathering signatures.

[Lumine]

Great coverage, seb_pard!

Went to vote a couple of hours ago for Felipe Kast, I hope he performs well in the primary.

[Lumine]

Aye, it's going to be an exciting night!

[Lumine]

Preliminar (and limited) results show Piñera at around 60%, Ossandon and Kast close to each other on roughly 20%. Sanchez would be close to 65-70%, Mayol around 30-35%.

[Lumine]

With 22.97%:

Chile Vamos:
Piñera 58.5%
Ossandon 28.0%
Kast 13.5%

Frente Amplio:
Sanchez 69.4%
Mayol 30.6%

[Lumine]

So by tomorrow, the field would be looking like this:

Cleared to enter the first round:

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Chile Vamos)
Senator Alejandro Guiller (Nueva Mayoria)
Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (Frente Amplio)

Senator Carolina Goic (Democracia Cristiana)
Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO)
Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Independent)

Not yet cleared to enter:

Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais)
Roxana Miranda (ANDHA)
Eduardo Artes (Union Patriotica)
Nicolas Shea (Todos)

Carola Canelo (Independent)
Franco Parisi (Independent)
Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (Independent)
Marcel Claude (Independent)

[Lumine]

Being fair, the Frente Amplio had a very good campaign. Still those results must be disappointing even if its their first primary, recieving as many combined votes as Ossandon (even with the campaign of some in the left to vote for him to get Piñera out) is not a sign of confidence if Sanchez ever intends to reach the second round.

I wanted Kast to do better, but I can be pleased with the good turnout for Chile Vamos (around 800,000 in 2013, it will surpass 1,200,000 this time around).

[Lumine]

I believe Kast's share is going up, because the vote left is basically located in the 11th district, which he is currently at 20%. Do you think there's some "voto util" that hurt him?


I honestly think that Beatriz Sanchez is a bad candidate and campaigner. It's impressive that someone like Mayol (with negative charisma) took from her more than 30% (however I voted for him).

I would certainly say it hurt him to some extent, particularly as fears ramped up that Ossandon might deliver a surprise win. Still, I think his campaign went as well as it can be reasonably expected, and he managed to raise up a few relevant issues. I wish his performance had been stronger so he'd be better positioned for a later election, but it could have been worse.

Aye, Sanchez seems a bit like a paper tiger now. Too many mistakes in the campaign trail, too confused a message, too bland an image. I'm rather surprised about her.

[Lumine]

New poll, taken before the primaries:

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, July 3rdth:

Bachelet Approval: 26%/61%

Presidential:

Voting Intention:

Piñera 22% (-2)
Sanchez 11% (+2)
Guillier 9% (-3)
Ossandon 7% (+1)
F. Kast 5% (+2)
Mayol 3%
Goic 1% (-1)
J. A. Kast 1%
Parisi 1%
Ominami 1%
Others 4%
Undecided 35% (+1)

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 56%, Guiller 14%, Sanchez 5%, Ossandon 4%, F. Kast 1%, Other/None 20%

If you consider coalitions:

Chile Vamos: 35%
Frente Amplio: 14%
Nueva Mayoria: 10%
Others: 6%

[Lumine]

Stupid question: why 2013 elections was Bachelet's landslide, compared to very close results of 2006 and 2010 presidential elections?

Well, a lot of it has to do with government erosion. Bachelet came out of nowhere in 2003-2004 as an efficient government minister and gained a lot of instant popularity (she was seen as caring and close to the public). The right-wing entered 2005-2006 divided and with two candidates (Piñera and Lavin) and while Piñera put up a good fight (partly because after 16 years in government the Concertacion was looking tired) he couldn't match Bachelet's appeal.

2009-2010 saw Bachelet still popular in person, but her government and the Concertacion being unpopular. A perfect storm of sorts took place, the left divided between three candidates as Piñera united the right, moved to the center and rode a wave of a desire for change to narrowly defeat former President Frei.

But by 2013 Piñera himself and his government had turned unpopular, and there was a general sense of defeat inside the right. When Bachelet returned from New York she had her popularity intact and rode a wave of populism by promising to lead far-reaching reforms from Chile, and she benefited as well from the fact that the right-wing changed candidates several times in a comedy of errors. By the end, she captured a landslide due the disunion in the right, the unpopularity of Piñera, her own strong appeal and popularity and her rather generous promises.

Come 2017 the scenario has shifted again. Bachelet is holed up in La Moneda as a hugely unpopular president, and Piñera, while still not popular, has a clear shot at a turn if things go right for him.