The Iron Lady - 1981 General Election

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October 1981 - Thatcher aims to hang on

Prelude: Facing threats of revolt by the Tory left and in the middle of economic strife and high unemployment (but with signs of recovery), Margaret Thatcher has been forced to call an election to regain her mandate. Can she?

Labour Party: Deeply split after the election of Michael Foot as leader in December 1980, the Labour Party is fighting this election in a hardline left-wing manifesto that pledges the abolition of the House of Lords, immediate withdrawal from the EEC and NATO, unilateral nuclear disarmament, banking control, a minimum wage and a policy of massive spending increases to fight unemployment. While many inside the party oppose Foot's policies and fear electoral disaster, most believe the unpopularity of the Conservatives could give Labour a serious chance to win.

Conservative Party: Battered by two and a half years of government and hurt by the defection of some Wet MP's to the Alliance, Margaret Thatcher's Conservatives have nonetheless gone all out on the campaign trail to defeat Labour and the Alliance and retain power, Thatcher herself depending on a victory to survive. Despite high unemployment the Conservatives point out that industrial output is rising and inflation going down, promising to achieve a complete recovery through the next term. The Conservative manifesto promises continued support for NATO and the EEC, limited privatization of some services, trade union reform and a robust national defence.

SDP-Liberal Alliance: The new electoral coalition that has shaken British politics, the Liberal Party and the new Social Democratic Party (SDP) have joined forces as a radical centrist third-force, led by David Steel and Roy Jenkins. The Alliance is riding high in the polls after several high profile defections from Labour and the Tories, but the question remains on whether they can seize the moment. The Alliance manifesto stands for electoral and lords reform, a plan to lower unemployment by a million, increased welfare benefits, an industrial democracy act, significant devolution to Scotland and Wales, and a moderate stance on defence.

Two days.

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Foot currently at 60%, which would mean more than 600 MP's for Labour.

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Fun fact: with the current margin, Ian Paisley (DUP) becomes the next leader of the Opposition (if we can call it an opposition).

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Fun fact: with the current margin, Ian Paisley (DUP) becomes the next leader of the Opposition (if we can call it an opposition).

How are you going to explain this?

I'm... not sure. I had Cecil Parkinson and a botched situation in Northern Ireland in mind, but even with that...

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Current projection:

Labour: 588 (+319)
Alliance: 36 (+25)
Conservative: 4 (-335)

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1981 General Election:

October 1981 - Foot wins a historic landslide

Labour Party: 53.5% (554 MP's)
Conservative Party: 21.8% (49 MP's)
SDP-Liberal Alliance: 20.2% (23 MP's)
Others: 4.5% (22 MP's)

The 1981 Campaign started in a tense note for the Conservatives, trailing Labour by a few points and close to a surging SDP-Liberal Alliance. Desperate to win an increasingly uphill battle, Thatcher had sacked Party Chairman Peter Thorneycroft and placed her young protégé Cecil Parkinson in charge of the Conservative campaign, choosing to fight an aggressive, almost unhinged campaign focusing on the extreme Labour policies and the unreliability of the Alliance. The Alliance, despite being the emerging force fared badly in the first few days, as infighting between candidates who refused to stand down, poor media appearances by Roy Jenkins and a confused opening message put a dent on the Alliance surge.

On the Labour side, the combined prospect of a possible victory (and a heavy defeat if the campaign was badly run) led even the critics of Michael Foot to close ranks in order to fight an effective campaign, and despite heavy media criticism of the Labour manifesto Foot and his inner circle proved surprisingly adept at selling some of its key pledges, doubling down on economics by attempting to seize on the public discontent with high unemployment (particularly thanks to the able performances of Denis Healey, Tony Benn and Peter Shore from the frontbench).

The Conservatives were prepared for a full-scale assault on Michael Foot and his policies to be launched, a strategy which began to unravel when the Daily Mirror ran an exclusive story regarding an affair of Party Chairman Parkinson with his secretary. Initially denying the allegations with indignation, further media scrutiny lead to full exposure in the press and the discovery of further skeletons inside the Conservative Party, turning the Conservative campaign in a series of improvised defences and desperate attacks that failed to harm a rising Labour, with the fiery orator Foot drawing up larger and larger crowds on his economic message of recovery.

An increasingly angry Thatcher had to deal not only with defending Parkinson, but with mounting pressure from the Tory left which warned of an impending landslide. The pressure eventually took its toll with the Prime Minister, leading an exasperated Thatcher to downplay a significant rise in unemployment figures at an interview, and her case was not helped by the staunchest Thatcherites (led by newly appointed Employment Secretary Norman Tebbit) apparently telling unemployed rioters to “get on their bikes” and look for work. As the Conservative poll ratings crashed with Thatcher seen as uncaring and ineffective and with the Alliance making a mess of their own campaign on account of divisions, Foot rode wave after wave of polling rises until, on the eve of the Election Night, Labour polled close to 50%.

The actual result was closer to 54%, and the resulting landslide wave overcame 1931 as the worst defeat of a governing party in the United Kingdom. One by one the Tory party grandees (Wet or Dry) were scalped on live television, including William Whitelaw, Francis Pym, Parkinson, Tebbit, former Prime Minister Ted Heath and, in the most historic of moments, Thatcher herself lost Finchley on live TV after barely breaking 30% of her constituency vote. Her speech was, all things considered, dignified, but it created the tradition of the “Thatcher moment” for the most shocking scalping in every following Election Night. While the Liberal Party did reasonably well and expanded to more than 20 MP’s, the Gang of Four and the SDP was all but wiped out as Bill Rodgers, David Owen and Roy Jenkins lost their seats, leaving Shirley Williams as the sole SDP MP.

The next day an embittered Margaret Thatcher left Downing Street in tears, and amidst adoring crowds Michael Foot entered Number 10.

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That was an impressively believable summary, considering the material you had to work with.

Thank you, I'm glad it doesn't sound far-fechted. Foot was polling very high before the SDP broke away, so while highly unlikely it is at least a "possible" result.