New South Wales State Election, 2015

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Admittedly, I am a tad sceptical to make a prediction for NSW just yet, after what happened in QLD. This being said, each state is different, and I can't see Premier Baird and the NSW Coalition losing.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

My predictions:

Albury - Easy Liberal hold.
Auburn - Easy Labor hold, particularly with Opposition Leader Luke Foley as candidate.
Ballina - Traditionally a safe National seat at the state level, this will likely go down to the wire... Every election has that one upset, and I think Green preferences will give this to Labor.
Balmain - Labor have a fair chance of winning this back, although Parker is the incumbent. This, combined with this bit of Sydney being very Green-friendly, is the basis of my decision to list Balmain as a likely Green hold.
Bankstown - Easy Labor hold.
Barwon - Easy National hold, unless Rohan Boehm puts up a strong challenge.
Bathurst - Likely National hold, although given the way Bathurst swung in 2011, expect a large swing back to Labor.
Baulkham Hills - Easy Liberal hold.
Bega - Liberal hold.
Blacktown - Easy Labor hold.
Blue Mountains - Blue Mountains' bellwether record looks set to come to an end.
Cabramatta - Labor hold, with a much larger margin.
Camden - Liberal hold, particularly given the loss of the Campbelltown area.
Campbelltown - Likely Labor gain, even with the very Liberal-friendly redistribution.
Canterbury - Easy Labor hold.
Castle Hill - Easy Liberal hold.
Cessnock - Easy Labor hold, particularly after the vote-splitting of 2011 that denied the Nationals victory.
Charlestown - Labor shouldn't have much trouble holding this part of Newcastle, after gaining it at a by-election.
Clarence - National hold, although expect a large swing back to Labor.
Coffs Harbour - Easy National hold.
Coogee - This will be close, given Paul Pearce's return. Going for a narrow Liberal hold.
Cootamundra - Easy National hold.
Cronulla - Liberal hold.
Davidson - Easy Liberal hold, and Labor to retake 2nd place.
Drummoyne - Likely Liberal hold, given the reports of Labor running dead, and the demographic change here.
Dubbo - National hold, unless Col Hamilton does really well (as far as I know, he doesn’t have too much of a profile).
East Hills - Easy Labor gain.
Epping - Easy Liberal hold.
Fairfield - Labor hold, particularly with Joe Tripodi no longer an issue.
Gosford - As the only Central Coast MP not to fall victim to the ICAC, Holstein has a decent chance of holding. Going for a narrow Liberal hold.
Goulburn - Liberal hold, even with former Senator Ursula Stephens as the Labor candidate.
Granville - Labor gain, another surprise Liberal win in 2011.
Hawkesbury - Easy Liberal hold.
Heathcote - Likely Liberal hold, given the redistribution. In my opinion, Heathcote, in its current configuration, won’t go back to Labor until next time they win government.
Heffron - Easy Labor hold, and the Liberals to remain in second.
Holsworthy - Possible Liberal hold, considering the major redistribution here.
Hornsby - Easy Liberal hold, particularly without Nick Berman in the race.
Keira - Labor hold.
Kiama - The redistribution has made this more Liberal-friendly, and will be another one to watch on election night. I'll go for a narrow Liberal hold.
Kogarah - Labor hold, particularly with the Labor-friendly redistribution.
Ku-ring-gai - Easy Liberal hold, even with former Premier O'Farrell's retirement.
Lake Macquarie - Greg Piper will easily win again, and Labor will come second.
Lakemba - Easy Labor hold.
Lane Cove - Easy Liberal hold, with Labor retaking second place.
Lismore - National hold, unless Labor do REALLY well.
Liverpool - Easy Labor hold.
Londonderry - Likely Labor gain, given the scandals involving Bassett, him attempting to flee for Hawkesbury, and the major redistribution.
Macquarie Fields - Labor will easily win this notionally Liberal seat back. On another note, Pat Farmer did not represent this area - the territory comprising Macquarie Fields in both its recent incarnations, has been part of Werriwa, not Macarthur.
Maitland - Robyn Parker's retirement should easily see Maitland go back to Labor.
Manly - Premier Baird will be returned easily.
Maroubra - Labor hold.
Miranda - The Liberals will win this back, given Collier’s second retirement, and the strengthening of the seat at the redistribution.
Monaro - A traditionally marginal seat, Steve Whan should easily win this back for Labor. When Whan retires though, this will be one to watch.
Mount Druitt - Easy Labor hold.
Mulgoa - Will likely stay with the Baird Government.
Murray - Easy National hold.
Myall Lakes - Easy National hold.
Newcastle - In an alternate universe where Tim Owen had not lied to the ICAC, and thus no by-election would have occurred, the Liberals would have struggled to hold this. Labor will easily hold after their 2014 by-election pickup.
Newtown - Tough to call, I think Labor will win this new seat though, given their local campaign here.
North Shore - Easy Liberal hold.
Northern Tablelands - Easy National hold, particularly with no strong independent this time around.
Oatley - May not be as vulnerable as the low margin suggests - this covers the better Liberal areas on the northern bank of the Georges River, and would have been Liberal held on federal figures in both 2010 and 2013. I'll go for a quasi-upset Liberal hold here.
Orange - Easy National hold.
Oxley - Easy National hold.
Parramatta - Made better in the redistribution, this one will probably narrowly stay Liberal.
Penrith - Jackie Kelly contesting as an independent, and directing preferences to Labor, makes this key seat even more interesting... Should be a Liberal hold though.
Pittwater - Another very safe Liberal seat where Labor will likely retake second place in 2015.
Port Macquarie - Easy National hold, particularly with the absence of Peter Besseling.
Port Stephens - Possible Liberal hold, given what happened with Baumann.
Prospect - Labor gain, particularly with the redistribution making the seat more favourable to Labor.
Riverstone - The demographics in Riverstone have obviously changed, it was held by Labor with a 7.2% margin at the 1988 Liberal/National landslide, and by 7.5% in 1991. I’ll go for a possible-likely Liberal hold here, but I expect a large swing to Labor.
Rockdale - Labor gain, considering this was another of the high-tide Liberal wins of 2011.
Ryde - Likely Liberal hold, unless Labor gain a swing large enough to topple the inflated margin here.
Seven Hills - This new seat, with two distinct ends, is another one to watch. Possible Liberal win, if Labor win this, expect them to be winning most of the other nail-biter seats
Shellharbour - Easy Labor hold.
South Coast - Liberal hold.
Strathfield - Historically a Liberal seat, this could stay with the Liberals, while seats further up the pendulum fall to Labor. With the redistribution making Strathfield 2% better for Liberals, along with Jodi McKay being parachuted in from Newcastle, I'm going for a narrow Labor gain here.
Summer Hill - The Greens will likely come second here in 2015, although Labor should hold.
Swansea - Even without the corruption allegations against sitting member Gerry Edwards, this would have been monumentally difficult for the Liberals to hold, and Labor will easily Swansea back.
Sydney - Greenwich will win his first general election. As for second place, hard to call – could be Labor or the Liberals.
Tamworth - National hold, barring Peter Draper doing well enough after four years to get back in.
Terrigal - Liberal hold, even with the Hartcher factor here.
The Entrance - Hard to call, although Spence's scandal has made this already key seat even more crucial to watch. As Frankston in last year's Victorian election and Dobell in the last federal election both demonstrated, once a corrupt MP is removed from the equation, voting habits generally return to normal. I think we'll see a narrow Labor gain here.
Tweed - Likely National hold, barring an extremely large swing to Labor.
Upper Hunter - National hold.
Vaucluse - Easy Liberal hold.
Wagga Wagga - Easy Liberal hold, particularly with no strong independent.
Wakehurst - Easy Liberal hold, with Labor resuming 2nd place.
Wallsend - Easy Labor hold.
Willoughby - Easy Liberal hold.
Wollondilly - As with Camden, Liberal hold, particularly given the loss of the Campbelltown suburbs.
Wollongong - Safe for Labor in theory, although if Arthur Rorris holds most of Gordon Bradbery's 2011 vote, and picks up a few Liberal votes, this could become interesting... I'll class this as a Labor hold though.
Wyong - Darren Webber's tenure has ensured a Labor gain here, even with the redistribution being friendly to the Liberals.

TOTALS:
Liberal - 38
National - 16
Labor - 36
Greens - 1
Independent - 2

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Looks like Labor is picking up The Entrance, and Lismore is too close to call.

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Still very early in the night though.  On another note, the two booths reporting in Blue Mountains have swung strongly to Labor.

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After Victoria and Queensland this is just so... boring and disappointing...

Not for me it isn't!

East Hills is holding up very well at the moment, as is Oatley.

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Dear God. Luke Foley has a swing AGAINST him in Auburn!

He is such an unappealing person tbh. And plus they Labor totally ignored demographics by parachuting him in.

He's won the seat at least. Will be interesting to see if he stays on. Personally, I wouldn't, but who else is there?

A small swing, but still a swing to the Liberals. Maybe Auburn's demographics are changing? Maybe, as Talleyrand said, the people of Auburn like the leader "parachuted" in?

I'm still wondering what happened in East Hills - was the smear campaign THAT effective?

Queanbeyan isn't in yet... hold your horses on Monaro.

Very true, and there's already a 1% swing to Labor there.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Dear God. Luke Foley has a swing AGAINST him in Auburn!

He is such an unappealing person tbh. And plus they Labor totally ignored demographics by parachuting him in.

He's won the seat at least. Will be interesting to see if he stays on. Personally, I wouldn't, but who else is there?

A small swing, but still a swing to the Liberals. Maybe Auburn's demographics are changing? Maybe, as Talleyrand said, the people of Auburb like the leader "parachuted" in?

I'm still wondering what happened in East Hills - was the smear campaign THAT effective?

Queanbeyan isn't in yet... hold your horses on Monaro.

Very true, and there's already a 1% swing to Labor there.

Apparently. Should be overturned IMO.

Also piss off with this mandate sh**t.

By that comment, do you mean my new signature picture?

Hmm - looks like Queanbeyan is not turning out as strong...

I'm surprised about that - you'd think given the demographics that it would have greatly assisted Whan's comeback. Still got a lot of votes to count though.