South Australian state election - 17th March 2018 (user search)

Adelaide - Liberal hold, if only because Labor aren’t popular anymore, and this key seat has an incumbent Liberal MP.
Badcoe - Likely Labor hold.
Black - Likely Liberal hold.
Bragg - Easy Liberal hold, the day this leaves Liberal hands is the day I sprout a tail.
Chaffey - Easy Liberal hold.
Cheltenham - Premier Weatherill will hold this easily.
Colton - Voting with the state since 1970, Colton shouldn’t break this record, although, like with everything in life, there’s a first time for everything. Liberal, because why not?
Croydon - One of the worst ever MPs to have ever served in an Australian parliament is finally leaving... GOOD RIDDANCE! Oh, and easy Labor hold.
Davenport - Liberal hold, although don’t be surprised of an outside chance of SA Best picking this up.
Dunstan - Likely Liberal hold, although expect this to remain a key marginal for the forseeable future. Should Marshall retire from Parliament if he doesn’t become Premier, this could be a Labor gain at a by-election – Labor held Norwood (Dunstan’s name pre-2014) more often than not prior to 2010, and was held for many years by Premier Don Dunstan (1967/68, 1970-79).
Elder - Ugh… another contest where SA Best have made it hard… Given the sitting ALP member, she has an advantage, although the east of the seat is good Liberal territory. Liberal gain/notional hold, but could go either way.
Elizabeth - Labor hold.
Enfield - Likely Labor hold, unless SA Best do really well and soak up a lot of Green/Liberal preferences.
Finniss - Possible SA Best gain, especially with the outgoing Liberal MP.
Flinders - Easy Liberal hold.
Florey - Labor aren’t exactly popular at the moment, so I’ll give this one to Bedford, who’s represented some of this area since 1997.
Frome - Geoff Brock will win again, and like in 2014, will very likely be a key figure as to who forms the next Government of South Australia.
Gibson - The former member for Mitchell, and Marion mayor, ALP-GRN-IND-now-SABEST Kris Hanna, has a good chance, although on current numbers, I can see this being a re-run of 2014, where the Liberals win off his preferences. Maybe Hanna will join the Australian Conservatives next?
Giles - Labor aren’t mega popular anymore at the state level, so even this is an SA Best target decide their slip back in the polls. Possible SA Best gain.
Hammond - Given the state of the polls, Hammond is once again a key seat. Likely Liberal hold.
Hartley - Not a strong area for NXT/SA-Best, but Nick Xenophon will possibly win this seat, unless he belts someone on the main street of Campbelltown or Magill. The polls have tightened in the campaign, and this will be a nailbiter. Preferences are KEY.
Heysen - With former Liberal leader Isobel Redmond exiting Parliament, this will likely go to SA Best.
Hurtle Vale - Possible Labor hold, although don’t write off the Liberals and SA Best, given some of the area’s tilt that way (the old Fisher was a Liberal-leaning seat, although this has been diluted significantly) and love of former Liberal-turned-independent MP, the late Bob Such.
Kaurna - Labor hold.
Kavel - With the polls going more pro-Liberal/anti SA Best, and Kavel never being as pro-Democrat/NXT/SA Best as Heysen, I’ll put this as a possible Liberal hold.
King - With no SA Best or sitting MP, this will be a test of the old Red vs Blue fight… The Liberals could gain this easily, although word has it Labor has the upper hand.
Lee - SA Best are putting in the hard yards in here… 50/50 either way, slight edge to Labor given the receding of the SA-Best tide.
Light - Given the seat now hangs no further north than Gawler town itself, and into some northern parts of Elizabeth, this will likely stay with Labor.
MacKillop - Easy Liberal hold.
Mawson - Possible Liberal gain (notional win), especially with the addition of the territory from Finniss, while NXT polled really well here at the 2016 federal election, SA-BEST have slid in the polls a little. Don’t underestimate Leon Bignell (or ALP marginal seat holders in SA in general though).
Morialta - A key seat, Gardner has built a good vote since his election, but will it be enough to overcome SA Best? With Xenophon himself running in next-door Hartley, but current polls showing around 20% for SA Best, as opposed to 30%, and strong territory for the party to the south, I’m putting this in the Liberal column.
Morphett - Normally a safe Liberal seat, Morphett might be the hardest seat to predict in 2018 – a long serving member turned Independent, SA Best… this one’s doing my head in! Likely Liberal hold, unless McFeteridge’s preferences leak enough to help Labor. Bear in mind, Morphett was Liberal in 2006, when the Liberals were at their worst, so if Labor gain this, they will definitely win statewide with a majority.
Mount Gambier - Given what happened to Troy Bell, with his corruption scandal, this should be an easy Liberal re-gain. Keyword is SHOULD, as Bell is still apparently popular around here. Bell to hold.
Narungga - The Nick Xenophon Team did well here in 2016, implying SA Best could do well here, but I’ll call this a likely Liberal hold. The Liberal Movement, the predecessor to the Democrats, held the predecessor seat of Goyder between 1973-76, although the Democrats never made the top two in the 1990s.
Newland - Giving this to Labor given Keynon’s incumbency, and success in marginal seat campaigns.
Playford - Easy Labor hold.
Port Adelaide - Likely Labor hold, although expect Gary Johanson to give Susan Close a good run for her money.
Ramsay - Easy Labor hold.
Reynell - Labor hold.
Schubert - Liberal hold, would be an easy hold if it wasn’t for SA Best.
Stuart - Liberal hold, especially with SA Best not running here.
Taylor - Every election has its upsets, and with a retiring MP, I think this could be a smokey SA Best gain.
Torrens - Possible Labor hold.
Unley - Liberal hold.
Waite - Likely Liberal hold, especially with the Xenophon tide receding and Hamilton-Smith retiring.
West Torrens - Labor hold.
Wright - Likely Labor hold, unless the Liberals do really well in the north-eastern suburbs.

	Welcome, Guest. Please login or register. Did you miss your activation email? May 29, 2024, 04:20:55 AM

News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more