National Tracking Poll Thread

[pa2011]

Gallup announced today that Romney joins John Kerry and George McGovern as the only presidential candidates in last 50 years to get NO bounce out of his convention.  Also, if you are willing to buy Rasmussen,  Romney lost 2 points today and now leads Obama by only 47 to 45. So seems Romney's Rasmussen "bounce" was very short lived.

[pa2011]

Gallup Tracking has Obama's approval up 3 points over night, to 52 percent. Obama leads Romney head to head in Gallup now 48 to 45, a point increase since yesterday.

[pa2011]

Correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't that Gallup bounce just basically be off only Michelle Obama and opening night. Maybe somewhat Clinton on Wednesday, but that still wouldn't show up for a few days, considering its a 7-day rolling average? Convention didn't even start till Tuesday night this year.

[pa2011]

Though hearing Gallup is only RV and not LV, think polls with LV samples are going to show a pretty decent bump in Democratic enthusiasm. From what I am seeing and hearing, seems Democrats got a pretty big jolt of enthusiasm from their convention and DNC may have succeeded in closing the enthusiasm gap. Not sure it lasts till election day, but, as of now, Democrats seem pretty jazzed up

[pa2011]

PPP tweeted it is releasing and Ohio poll tonight,  conducted Fri. Sat and today,  that will likely show Obama currently leads by a bigger margin in the Buckeye State than he won it by in 2008. Think he won Ohio by  5 points. Not so sure why this will be shocking, however. In the Politico article out today about Obama being in the drivers seat, anonoymous GOP strategists are quoted as saying even GOP tracking polls have  consistently shown Obama with a high single digit lead in Ohio.

[pa2011]

Appears the Gallup Tracking Poll has stabilized.  Obama 49 Romney 44, the same 5-point margin as yesterday.

[pa2011]

Obama moves up in Gallup Tracking Poll by 1 point.  Now leads 50 to 44, a one point gain over yesterday.

[pa2011]

Obama bumps up 1 in Gallup Tracking poll, now leads 51 to 43, a 7 point advantage. Obama's approval rating also moves up 1, to 51.

[pa2011]

Correct: My apology for misreading. Regardless, pretty big Obama advantage in a poll that hasn't moved much at all since it started. Not sure what to make of his new lead.

[pa2011]

Probably with Rasmussen is it flips and switches and seems to move too fast. Hard to read too much in his results on any one day since it moves so much when very, very few believe the electorate is changing its mind that quickly with this race, which has overall been remarkably stable.

[pa2011]

Obama drops 1 in Gallup tracking poll, to 49. Romney stays same at 44. Obama +5.  (As an aside, shows you  how ridiculous Rasmussen's wild swings are)

[pa2011]

So why is Reuters showing this while Rasmussen is showing what it shows. Both can't be correct.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913

[pa2011]

Gallup Tracking Poll is now Obama 50 (+2)  Romney 44 (-1).  

[pa2011]

Was just going to say, I am surprised Gallup seems to have settled out with this consistent 6 point Obama lead.

[pa2011]

So Gallup says near landslide while most state polling, and the other trackers, say a close race or slight Obama edge. One thing is for sure, think we can all agree Romney isn't likely to win by 6 points nationally. Maybe 51 to 49, or even 52 to 48, but can't really envision Obama not breaking 48.