Think its really hard to list them 1-9. but heres mine the 9 states being Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, nevada, new hampshire, iowa, wisconsin, north carolina.
Lean Obama
1 Nevada
2 New Hampshire
3 Wisconsin
4 Virginia
5 Ohio
6 Colorado
7 Iowa
8 Florida
9 North Carolina
Lean Romney
Here's my list, before reading the others:
From Lean Obama to Lean Romney:
1) Wisconsin (Obama)
2) New Hampshire (Obama)
3) Iowa (Obama)4) Nevada (Tossup)
5) Colorado (Romney)
6) Ohio (Romney)
7) Virginia (Romney)
8 ) Florida (Romney)
9) North Carolina (Romney)My guesses are based largely on the CU professors' economic model, the results of the last 3 elections, and some good old-fashioned guess work. Come to think of it, I'm not all that satisfied with my own list. Let me go into some more detail:
1) Wisconsin has been close in 2000 and 2004, but it went Democratic all three times. The CU guys call it for Romney, but I'm gonna give precedence to previous election results. I'm not particularly confident about this one, though.
2) New Hampshire went Republican in 2000. Again, this is based on past results. The CU guys give this to Romney, but I'm not so sure.
3) Iowa went Republican in 2004, but I'm gonna give this one to the Democrats. The CU guys also say so.
4) Nevada went GOP in 2000 and 2004, so I'd say Romney has a good chance here. I consider this the absolute, narrowest-margin tossup.
5) Colorado went Republican in two of the last three elections. This is the first state I give to Romney, with reasonable certainty.
6) Ohio, the quintessential swing state. One thing that caught my attention was the news that the coal miners' union was going to sit out the election (I wanna say it was United Mine Workers, but I'm not sure). Obama's energy policy has not been friendly to the coal industry, and that's likely to hurt him in the Appalachian states.
7) Virginia: we're getting into the South now. The polls seem to lean toward Obama, but I'm willing to bet the Old Dominion goes with the GOP, based on past results and weak economic data.
8 ) Florida is considered a tossup, but I'm gonna say Romney will win by a fairly comfortable margin on Election Day.
9) North Carolina is the one state Obama won by the narrowest margin in 2008, and I predict a fairly comfortable Republican victory here.
Prediction: Romney will sweep the South, and will most likely prevail in Ohio. Beyond that it's a tossup, leaning Romney.
