Canada 1993

[DC Al Fine]

Charest holds onto some Quebec seats. A few Ontario PC incumbents hold on (Garth Turner, Perrin Beatty, etc.) I'd guess PC's win 20-something seats and the NDP win maybe 15.

[DC Al Fine]

Would the Reform Party still dominate Western Canada? Or would the PCs hold on to some of their seats there?

The PC's averaged about 12% in Western Canada. It's not like Ontario where some of their candidates nearly won their seats in spite of Reform. Western Canadian PC's were distant 3rd or 4th place finishers. There simply weren't many seats where they lost by less than 20%, so barring a major swing from Reform (which I don't think Charest could do), I just can't see them saving more than a few seats.

Here are some "saveables" with how much they lost by in ()'s

1) Brandon-Souris, MB (11%)
2) Cariboo-Chicotlin, BC (14%)
3) Vancouver Centre, BC (6%, Also Kim Campbell's riding)
4) Vancouver South, BC (12%)

And that's everything in Western Canada they lost by less than 15%. The only other way I can see the PC's saving some seats in Western Canada is by convincing some prominent western cabinet ministers to not retire.

[DC Al Fine]

For the NDP, Dave Barrett obviously would have taken the "no" side on Charlottetown which couldn't have done any more damage in Ontario but might have flied better in the West.  Maybe they could have gotten 20 across the country at most.  It seems Reform represented more of a protest vote in BC, while in say Saskatchewan it was a real ideological shift to the right: after all traditionally NDP seats eventually went home in BC but became Conservative strongholds in Sask.  

THe NDP got 6% of the vote & zero seats in '93. Focusing on the West at the expense of Ontario would be a boon for them.