GA-Monmouth: Trump +3 (user search)
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  GA-Monmouth: Trump +3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA-Monmouth: Trump +3  (Read 3991 times)
dspNY
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Posts: 3,032
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« on: September 19, 2016, 03:51:05 PM »

Georgia five points to the left of Iowa? That Trump +8 Iowa poll they took is an outlier
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dspNY
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Posts: 3,032
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2016, 06:17:55 PM »

If Trump continues to stay unacceptable to Atlanta Republicans, and bleeds 10% support to Johnson (if not her), she might need only 25%.

If Johnson got 6, the scenario for Hillary to win is this:

95% of African Americans (30% of the electorate)
70% of Hispanics/other (5% of the electorate)
24% of whites (65% of the electorate)

This would give Clinton 47.6%. Add Johnson's 6% and Clinton has a 1% win since there is only 46% of the vote remaining to be had. Now if Johnson's 6% falls to 4%, Clinton would need 25% of the white vote to win with 48.25%, or a 0.5% margin
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