FL-GOV 2018: Ron DeSantis vs. Andrew Gillum: Who wins?

[Fuzzy Bear]

I have trouble believing Gillum is really up 5 points.  There were a lot of undecideds in the poll that gave that result, and Florida's GOP is far more organized and in far better shape than Florida's Democratic Party.

That's a Horse Race Analysis statement, not an endorsement.  I haven't decided who I will vote for.  DeSantis is bad because he promises to be just like Rick Scott.  Gillum is bad because while he advocates some things I approve of (expanding Medicaid, some criminal justice proposals), he also advocates some things I consider horrible ($15/hour minimum wage, pro-gun control, elimination of McKay Scholarships which enables my son to go to a safe school, in favor of a teachers' union agenda).  In this situation where neither candidate is particularly attractive to me, I'm going to have to do a lot of homework to decide which candidate is better for me and my family.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I have trouble believing Gillum is really up 5 points.  There were a lot of undecideds in the poll that gave that result, and Florida's GOP is far more organized and in far better shape than Florida's Democratic Party.

That's a Horse Race Analysis statement, not an endorsement.  I haven't decided who I will vote for.  DeSantis is bad because he promises to be just like Rick Scott.  Gillum is bad because while he advocates some things I approve of (expanding Medicaid, some criminal justice proposals), he also advocates some things I consider horrible ($15/hour minimum wage, pro-gun control, elimination of McKay Scholarships which enables my son to go to a safe school, in favor of a teachers' union agenda).  In this situation where neither candidate is particularly attractive to me, I'm going to have to do a lot of homework to decide which candidate is better for me and my family.

I suppose the question becomes if you think the GOP controlled House would block Gillum initiatives you may disagree with

The McKay Scholarship issue is the big one.  It allows for him to be educated in an alternative setting due to his ADHD.  There are classes for him in the public school in a similar setting, but, to be honest, these classes are unsafe.  He was bullied daily when he went to public school, and the school was either unwilling or unable to stop it.

Gillum hasn't said he's against it.  He wishes to end charter schools, essentially to curry favor with teacher unions.  The second aspect has me torn, because while I resent the fact that much GOP "education policy" is little more than a war against the teacher unions, the teacher unions don't have students' best interest at heart, either, and differentiated approaches to education are needed to address Florida's staggering social problems.

[Fuzzy Bear]

This hurricane is going to drown Gillum if he handles it as poorly as the last one.

Says the guy who follows the idiot who dismissed the death of thousands of Americans in Puerto Rico as fake news.

What do I know? I’ve only lived through Gillum’s Tallahassee:

I find the spokespeople on DeSantis's "Gillum Failed Us" hurricane ads to be scripted and unconvincing, but it's a narrative that has gained SOME traction, and it won't be good if Tallahassee is nailed right at election time with Hurricane Michael.

Gillum is in a no-win situation.  If he stays home, he'll get flak and if he campaigns, he'll get more flak.  DeSantis has actually lucked out with the weather situation here, believe it or not.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Starting to see a resurgence of: "Gillum must do X or agree with Y to succeed, DeSantis doesnt have to do anything to win". Apparently, Gillum cant stay in his town or campaign in FL, both are bad situations for him, but for DeSantis, its okay. If the past months have proved anything, its that DeSantis' actions have just as much impact on the race as Gillum's.

I will say this:  Given the way the storm is heading, it sets both Gillum and Scott up to be "leaders".  DeSantis is now in a position where he's not abandoning anyone by campaigning, but he doesn't have anything to do at this point to appear to be a "leader". 

In a subtle way, DeSantis is taking on the image of an "empty suit".  It's as if comparisons are being set up betwen Gillum and SCOTT (the executives) and between DeSantis and NELSON (legislators whose records aren't terrible, but are what they are).  It's kind of unintended, but it's there.  Scott was under water in ratings until his Hurricane Leadership Image boosted him, while Nelson (and DeSantis) are guys for whom it's hard to point to their accomplishments.  (Most people forget when Nelson was the Space Center's Congressional lifeline; that was over 30 years ago now.)