1972: Nixon vs Muskie

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

My best guesstimate, maybe Muskie could pull off upsets in Wisconsin and Illinois if he brings out higher then usual Polish-American turnout.

Muskie would not have carried Illinois; it was much more Republican, Presidentially, back then, as opposed to now.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

People in 1971 were speaking of the inevitability of Muskie in 1972.  He was the overwhelming favorite for the nomination; he had gotten all the important endorsements from Governors.  Some believed him to be favored over Nixon.  Voters in 1968 were not as inelastic as they are now.  The standard view for Democrats going into 1972 was that (A) California would be the major battleground and (B) Labor would be solidly being the Democratic candidate.

The canvas threw Muskie.  He was hyped during the 1968 campaign; he was really an awful pick that brought little to the ticket, but he did look good when compared to Agnew and LeMay.  He also turned to the Left after McGovern got the upper hand, which gave Jackson and HHH openings to be the McGovern alternative.  No one viewed him as a guy that would ever run for President prior to 1968, and he ended up being another VP candidate who wasn't up to running for the Big Job.  He was better, as a candidate for VP than Lodge, Miller, Dole, Ferraro, as a losing VP candidate, but he was not as good as Bentsen, Kemp, or Lieberman.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

It might have gotten this good.