Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

A very close race, with perhaps a slight long term erosion for Obama.

Yep, too close. McCain doesn't deserve a net favorability rating. He's conducted himself appallingly all this week and last. It's nothing short of disgusting that he appears more well thought of for having done so

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

A very close race, with perhaps a slight long term erosion for Obama.

Yep, too close. McCain doesn't deserve a net favorability rating. He's conducted himself appallingly all this week and last. It's disgusting that he appears more well approved of for having done so

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, August 1, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 47%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (nc, nc)

This race is over. Where did the McCain campaign go wrong?

Better for Obama wage a civil and dignified campaign, and lose, than stoop to McCain's level in a vain effort to win

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Better for Obama wage a civil and dignified campaign, and lose, than stoop to McCain's level in a vain effort to win

Dave

Translated from official DNC speak to something normal - "Ugh, why isn't Obama up by more than two...er...make that one point?"

The sentiments I express are mine Phil, not those of the DNC

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

This campaign is far from over, but right now, Obama, who had great press last week, is slipping in the polls.  The more people see him, the less they like him

Digusting when you consider the civility and dignity the man exudes even when the going gets tough. There's McCain conducting a negative attack, attack, attack breaking his own promise to run a civil campaign. Something profoundly wrong there. If any one deserves to be reviled it's McCain. I expected better from him considering the smear that was peddled against him in South Carolina, 2000

Anyway I've made perfectly clear my opinion on this matter - and I've no intention of reiterating further

A word of advice for John McCain though. What goes around comes around and if you can't take it you shouldn't dish it out

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

This campaign is far from over, but right now, Obama, who had great press last week, is slipping in the polls.  The more people see him, the less they like him

Digusting when you consider the civility and dignity the man exudes even when the going gets tough. There's McCain conducting a negative personal attack, attack, attack campaign breaking his own promise to run a civil campaign. If any one deserves to be disliked it's McCain. I expected better from him considering the smears that were peddled against him in 2000

A word of advice for John McCain though. What goes around comes around and if he can't take it then he shouldn't dish it out

Anyway I've made perfectly clear my opinion on this matter

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday, August 2, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable; - 41% unfavorable (-1, nc)
Obama: 53% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (-2, nc)

McCain earns positive reviews from 86% of Republicans while Obama does the same from 82% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, 60% have a favorable opinion of McCain. For Obama, that number is 50%.

Cindy McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of American voters, Michelle Obama by 46%.

No comment. I'm depressed enough

[Democratic Hawk]

Hey, I'd rather be ahead than not.

True, but it's more McCain's favorables where I object

[Democratic Hawk]

Only viewed favorably by 50% of Indies? That will spell trouble come November as the Democrats Party ID advantage is decresing.

I sometimes wonder if many Independents nowadays are former Republicans

As for the polls, I'm putting more faith in the Electoral Barometer. Designed by political scientist Alan Abramowitz, it has predicted with accuracy the winner of the popular vote in all but one of the last 15 presidential elections; 1968 being the exception. It weighs together three factors:

1. The improval rating of the incumbent president
2. The economy's growth rate
3. Whether the president's party has controlled the White House for two-terms (the "time for change factor")

This formula gives the Republican candidate (McCain) -60, second only to that of Carter's -62, IIRC, in 1980 (and we know what happened to him). It may well have ticked a little towards McCain, giving that the economy grew by 1.9% in the 2nd quarter (up from 1.0% in the 1st)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday, August 3, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable; - 42% unfavorable (nc, +1)
Obama: 55% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (+2, nc)

McCain earns positive reviews from 85% of Republicans while Obama does the same from 83% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, 61% have a favorable opinion of McCain. For Obama, that number is 47%.

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, August 4, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
Obama: 44% / 46%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

McCain: 55% favorable; - 42% unfavorable (-1, nc)
Obama: 51% favorable; - 46% unfavorable (-4, +2)

McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 51%. That is the lowest rating for Obama since he wrapped up the nomination. Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 47% of unaffiliated voters. For McCain, the numbers are 87% favorable among Republicans, 26% among Democrats, and 61% among unaffiliated voters.

Sixty percent (60%) of voters now see Obama as politically liberal while 65% see McCain as politically conservative. Among liberals, 71% see Obama as one of them, but just 18% of liberals see Obama as Very Liberal. Among conservatives, 71% say McCain is also a conservative, including 38% who say he is Very Conservative. Thirty-five percent (35%) of politically moderate voters say that McCain is politically moderate and 33% say the same of Obama. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Democrats see McCain as conservative while 69% of Republicans see Obama as liberal.

[Democratic Hawk]

As the worm turns...

Worm being very apt (slimey things) and John McCain is a slimeball if nothing else

[Democratic Hawk]

As the worm turns...

Worm being very apt (slimey things) and John McCain is a slimeball if nothing else

Hawk, I don't know why you continue to degrade yourself with simple partisan musings.  It's below you.  I really haven't said much on this before, but it's not particularly enlightening nor informative nor really very nice.

I don't consider what McCain is doing to Obama very nice. It's disgusting. And what makes it worse, judging by those approvals, is that he appears to be getting away with it. When John McCain starts waging an honorable, civil and dignified campaign, I'll cut him some slack. Fair is fair

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

In fact, I would say that Obama, pulling the race card, is the real "slimeball".

Obama has nothing to gain whatsoever by pulling the race card and you know it. So I'm not standing for any of that nonsense. The race "issue" is not something that is going to help Obama

I do, of course, recall the North Carolina GOP ran ads featuring the Rev. Jeremiah Wright in the run-up to the Democratic primary. I don't think that was intended to help Obama, do you?

When it comes to Barack H. Obama, the simple truth is that he is not a 'race' politician. When Rep. Bobby Rush spanked Obama when he challenged him in his districts Democratic primary, Rush explained his victory this way: "I'm a race politician, and he's not" [Morning Edition, National Public Radio, February 28, 2007]

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

You people never fail to get all worked up over summer polling... take a deep breath and relax.

which is easier said then done

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 44% / 47%, including leaners (nc, nc)
Obama: 44% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

McCain: 55% favorable; - 41% unfavorable (nc, -1)
Obama: 53% favorable; - 45% unfavorable (+2, -1)

[Democratic Hawk]

As far as the debates go:

1. Either McCain comes across as old and tired, lacking the vitality, and Obama comes across as young and fresh, full of vitality, to tackle the challenges that lie ahead

2. Or McCain makes Obama look like a kid

Obama really needs to pin McCain on the most important issue of the day - the economy because it will determine, more than anything else, whether or not 2008 is to be a 'change' election

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, August 7, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

If the race for the White House remains this close, the final decision may be rest in the hands of voters who are not yet paying attention to the campaign. Each night, Rasmussen Reports asks survey participants to let us know how closely they are following the election using a 9-point scale. People answering “9” say they are following the race “on a daily basis.”

Forty-two percent (42%) of McCain supporters say they’re following the race that closely along with 39% of Obama supporters and 35% of those who will vote for a third-party candidate. However, among the undecided voters, just 19% say they’re paying that much attention. On that nine-point scale, most undecided voters say their interest in the campaign is a “6” or less.

The average response for both a McCain or an Obama supporter is 7.4. For those supporting a third party candidate, the average level of interest is a 6.6. For the undecided voters, that figure is even lower--6.2.

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable; - 41% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama: 54% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, August 8, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

McCain: 54% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (-2, +3)
Obama: 53% favorable; - 45% unfavorable (-1, +1)

New results from Missouri and Michigan will be released at noon Eastern. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest results on the Washington Governor’s race will be released.

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday, August 9, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
Obama: 44% / 46%, including leaners (nc, -1)

McCain leads by nineteen points among White Men and by eight points among White Women. Obama leads 94% to 5% among African-American voters and by twenty-one points among Hispanic voters.

Favorability

McCain: 54% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama: 53% favorable; - 45% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Only up 21 among Hispanics? The other polls have it as a 2-1 margin for Obama.

But at least you can't say that Rasmussen is underpolling the black margin for Obama.

Only up 21 among Hispanics? The other polls have it as a 2-1 margin for Obama.

But at least you can't say that Rasmussen is underpolling the black margin for Obama.

For comparative purposes, though it's registered voters, the most recent weekly tracking data from Gallup gives vote by race as follows [Rasmussen lead in color]:

White Men: McCain 55%; Obama 34% (McCain +21) +19
White Women: McCain 47%; Obama 41% (McCain +6) +8
Hispanic: Obama 57%; McCain 30% (Obama +27) +21
Black: Obama 86%; McCain 5% (Obama +81) + 89

The Rasmussen numbers are more recent, however. Gallup's data is from week ending Sunday, 3rd August

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday, August 10, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (+1, +2)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (-1, -1)

80% of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama while 87% of Republicans say they’ll vote for McCain. The two candidates are essentially even among unaffiliated voters.

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable - 44% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 54% favorable - 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Additionally,

Forty-four percent (44%) of voters say that the economy is the top issue of Election 2008 while 22% see national security issues as the top priority. Twelve percent (12%) see domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care as most important while 9% hold that view of fiscal issues such as taxes and government spending. Six percent (6%) say cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion matter most when casting their vote.

Obama leads by twenty-six percentage points among those who say the economy is the most important issue. He also is overwhelmingly favored by those who see domestic issues as most important.

McCain leads by thirty-eight percentage points among national security voters and holds huge advantages among those who say fiscal or cultural issues are their top priority.

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, August 11, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable; - 43% unfavorable (+2, -1)
Obama: 55% favorable; - 43% unfavorable (+1, -1)

Today at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, polling data will be released for the Oregon Senate race. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released for the Presidential race in Oregon and Iowa.

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, August 14, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (-1, -1)


Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable (+1, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday - August 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

which is better than yesterday