Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday, August 19, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 47%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (-1, -1)

Favorability

McCain: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama: 54% favorable, 45% unfavorable (-1, +2)

At 3:00 Eastern, the latest results from the Louisiana Senate race will be posted. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, we will release data on the Presidential race in Louisiana and Florida.

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, August 20, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, +1)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)
McCain: 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)

State polling data for New Mexico will be released at 3:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m.

[Democratic Hawk]

For now, Clinton supporters may have reacted badly enough to Obama selecting Biden to make things with McCain a dead heat

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama can save it, but the Stadium Speech is already being derided for the setting.  It may work out, but the signs so far are NOT favorable for Obama.

Isn't what a man says more than important than where he says it?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday, August 30, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Obama currently leads by thirteen points among women while McCain leads by six among men. Among white women, the candidates are essentially even while McCain holds a substantial lead among white men

Favorability

Obama: 57% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (+2, -2)

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday - September 4, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 50%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 57% favorable, 41% unfavorable (-2, +1)
McCain: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday - September 6, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 46% / 48%, including leaners (+1, +2)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 58% favorable, 40% unfavorable (nc, -1)

McCain earns the vote from 89% of Republicans while Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats. McCain also manages to attract 15% of Democrats while Obama gets 9% of the Republican vote. Voters not affiliated with either major party remain fairly evenly divided between the two men.

McCain leads by seven points among men while Obama leads by six among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women. Forty-two percent (42%) of voters say that economic issues are most important this year and Obama holds a 34-point advantage among these voters.

Twenty-four percent (24%) of voters say the national security issues are most important. Among these voters its McCain by 39.

The Republican hopeful also leads by wide margins among those who consider fiscal issues or cultural issues most important. Obama leads among those primarily interested in domestic programs such as Social Security and health care.

Overall, McCain is now viewed favorably by 58% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 56%.

Palin is viewed favorably by 58% of voters including 40% with a Very Favorable opinion of her. Biden earns positive reviews from 48% of voters.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Obama voters now say they are voting with enthusiasm for their candidate while 17% are primarily voting against the other candidate. For McCain, those numbers are 65% and 28% respectively. Before the Republican convention, just 54% of McCain voters were voting enthusiastically for him rather than simply voting against Obama.

Saintly Sarah must be having an effect. She has put the "umph" back into the McCain campaign, I'll give her that much

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Can someone remind me which presidential nominee has been aligned with the very personification of ineptitude (Mr 34%, according to Rasmussen) 90% of the time in the Senate? Is contributing to the mess really worthy of a 22% net approval rating?

Four more years of America's international standing in the gutter; four more years of relentless attacks on middle class living standards; four more years of blue collar jobs being outsourced. Ugh

I'm going to wipe the floor with McCain if he wins - and things aren't a hell of a lot better in four years time. And that's a promise

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Why the ? Staid ol' decrepit (and that's just his failed Republican policies), Johnny Mac is ahead. You should should be for him

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters say they trust McCain more than Obama on the economy while 45% trust Obama. These figures are updated weekly and have generally found voters evenly divided.
[/i]

Convention bounce half-way gone, but if this figure is true we should see a swing back towards McCain this week.

We'll have to see if Obama makes any headway against McCain on this through his latest ads and the "fundamentals are strong" issue. Right now I suppose this reflects a mix of "he'll raise my taxes" and leftover pro-drilling sentiment thoroughly leavened with basic partisanship.

Of course, for many of those who trust McCain on the economy (and most Republicans and many Independents, who lean his/their way will), it might not be their number one issue, which means that Obama may actually lead among those voters for whom the economy is the top issue

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday - September 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 48% (nc)
Obama: 47% (nc)

Investor confidence has stabilized—at least for the moment--after falling sharply for several days. The economic confidence of those who do not invest was not shaken by the Wall Street events of recent days. As for the political implications, polling conducted last night shows that 49% 47% trust McCain more than Obama on economic issues while 45% trust Obama.

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released for the Oregon Senate race and at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new results will be posted for the Presidential race in Wisconsin and Oregon.

McCain leads 58% to 38% among those who regularly shop at Wal-Mart while Obama leads 61% to 36% among those who don’t frequent the retail giant. Overall, Obama leads among those who earn less than $40,000 a year while McCain leads among those with higher earnings. Among white voters, Obama has the edge only among those who earn less than $20,000 a year and his advantage among those lower income white voters is just four percentage points

[Democratic Hawk]

New Rasmussen Reports Party Weighting Targets: 39.0% Democrat, 33.5% Republican

Link

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

This week must have been a strong week for Dems in terms of Party ID.

Seemingly, their best week since July

This week’s adjustment shows a very slight increase in the number of Democrats, primarily offset by a decrease in the number of unaffiliated voters.

Results from this past week showed that the number of people considering themselves to Democrats spiked early in the week as the economic problems on Wall Street became visible. Overall, it was the best week for the Democrats since July. It remains to be seen whether this might lead to a lasting adjustment or be more of a bounce like that resulting from a party’s nominating convention ...

This week’s adjustment will have little impact on the daily Presidential Tracking Poll. However, if the partisan trends continue shifting, it could have a significant impact as Election Day draws near.

During Election 2006, there was a notable shift in partisan identification favoring Democrats as Election Day approached. During Election 2004, there was a notable shift in the opposite direction. It is impossible to know which direction this will flow during 2008 (see month-by-month results). These shifts correctly foretold the election outcome in both years.

It should be noted that the current targets are fairly similar to the ratio that existed when Democrats won control of Congress in 2006. They are also fairly close to the make-up of the electorate in the Presidential elections of 2000 and 1996.

The current targets also suggest a significantly better environment for Democrats than they faced in Election 2004. When President Bush was re-elected, there were far more Republicans in the nation than there are today… and far fewer independent voters.

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday- September 25,2008

Obama 48%(-1)
McCain 45%(-2)

New polling released this morning shows Obama with a two-point advantage in North Carolina. Data will be released today for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, nc)
McCain: 55% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday - September 28, 2008:

Obama - 50% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Obama now leads by sixteen points among women but trails by six among men. Obama and McCain are essentially even among White Women, a constituency that George W. Bush won by eleven points four years ago. Obama is now supported by 13% of Republicans, McCain by 11% of Democrats. For most of the year, McCain enjoyed more crossover support than Obama

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, September 29, 2008
Obama 50%
McCain 45%

Obama leads by fifteen points among women but trails by six among men. Obama and McCain are essentially even among White Women, a constituency that George W. Bush won by eleven points four years ago. Obama is now supported by 12% of Republicans, McCain by 11% of Democrats. For most of the year, McCain enjoyed more crossover support than Obama.

Favorability

Obama: 58% favorable; 42% unfavorable (+1, nc)
McCain: 55% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Gets Post-Debate Boost in Voter Trust on All Issues (September 29, 2008)

Link

Environmental issues: Obama 54%; McCain 37% (Obama +17)
Education: Obama 53%; McCain 36% (Obama +17)
Healthcare: Obama 54%; McCain 38% (Obama +16)
Social Security: Obama 49%; McCain 41% (Obama +8)
Abortion: Obama 47%; McCain 42% (Obama +5)
Balance Federal Budget: Obama 47%; McCain 43% (Obama +4)
Negotiating Trade Agreements: Obama 47%; McCain 43% (Obama +4)
Taxes: Obama 48%; McCain 45% (Obama +3)
Immigration: Obama 43%; McCain 40% (Obama +3)
War on Iraq: Obama 46%; McCain 45% (Obama +1)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 45% (nc)

Obama leads among Democrats 87% to 11% while McCain leads among Republicans by an identical margin. For much of the year, McCain was able to count on a more unified party than Obama, but that advantage has disappeared. Obama benefits from the fact that there are more Democrats than Republicans in the nation and he also holds a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

Obama is now trusted more on economic issues by 51% of voters, McCain by 42%. That’s the biggest advantage either candidate has enjoyed on this issue during Election 2008 and the first time either candidate has been trusted more by a majority of voters. This comes at a time when 48% of voters say that the economy is the top issue while just 20% say that national security is the highest priority. Obama has nearly eliminated McCain’s advantage on national security issues and the Democrat is now trusted more than McCain on ten other key issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports.

Favorability

Obama: 58% favorable (nc); 41% unfavorable (nc)
McCain: 53% favorable (nc); 46% unfavorable (+1)

Obama today is viewed favorably by 58% of voters, McCain by 53%. However, 39% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 27% have a Very Unfavorable view. The comparable numbers for McCain are 25% Very Favorable and 26% Very Unfavorable. This is the first time all year that McCain’s Very Unfavorable rating has topped his Very Favorable numbers.

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday-October 2, 2008
Obama 51%(nc)
McCain 44%(-1)

Forty-two percent (42%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Fifteen percent (15%) express a preference for one of the candidates but could still change their mind. Just over 1% remain committed to a third-party candidate while 3% remain undecided

Obama leads 63% to 32% among voters who name the economy as the top voting issue. McCain lead 74% to 24% among those who say that national security is the highest priority. Fifty percent (50%) of voters say the economy is most important while just 19% see national security that way.

New polling has been released this morning showing Obama with a slight lead in North Carolina. Swing state polls are following the national trend and Obama’s advantage in the Electoral College has grown over the past week.

Later today, new poll results will be released for New Mexico, Montana, Kentucky and Nebraska. Polls on Senate and Governor’s races in those states will also be released.

Favorability

Obama: 58% favorable; 41% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 52% favorable; 46% unfavorable (-1, nc)

Nationally, Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of voters, McCain by 52%. This is McCain’s lowest his favorable rating since June 15

[Democratic Hawk]

New Rasmussen Party Weighting Targets: Democrat 39.3% (+0.3%); Republican 33.3% (-0.3%); Unaffiliated 27.4% (nc)

Link

[Democratic Hawk]

Say goodbye to the economy... and your jobs.

Yeah right . I'm no economist but surely it can't be just coincidence that since 1948, Democratic presidents have had a better track record on economic growth, rising prosperity and job creation.

Bush cut taxes the Republican way, that is give most to those who don't need it and less to those who do - and look to where he has brought the American economy. McCain promises more of the same

The fact is George W Bush will leave office with his country in worse shape than he found it. The Republican presidential nominee, rather than the Democratic one, has been complicit in that

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

I should point out that I will rate the presidency of George W Bush as something of a success story if he leaves office with a record budget surplus, which is what he came to office inheriting

I cannot be any fairer than that. Oh, Bin Laden is still at large, but, credit where credit is due, there have been no more 9/11s

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday - October 6, 2008:

Obama - 52% (+1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (-1, nc)
McCain: 53% favorable; 47% unfavorable (nc, +2)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Time to start looking to 2012. Who's up? Palin? Romney? Huck?

With those names, you should start looking to 2016

Believe me, if the economy doesn't improve in the next 4 years, Obama will be out in a heartbeat. Anyone will be able to beat him.

They can always blame it on Bush.

That's just it though. When Bush was elected, things were good, there was a record budget surplus (there isn't any more). He could have built on Clinton's success but he didn't. Them servile Republicans in Congress gave Bush too much of a free hand too. Republicans are happy to run a mile from Bush now, but only because it suits them to do so. I sure as hell wouldn't be allowing them to get off the hook that easily

A President Obama would have restraint from within in the form of the Blue Dogs; but he'd likely govern as a pragmatist (proactive, liberal-leaning Christian Democrat) anyway, not an ideologue

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

You're kidding yourself.

Not at all. That's what Obama is

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I'd want Obama to be a competent and responsible president. Who supporting him wouldn't?

I'm not impressed with Bush's record and I don't see McCain being much "change" on that

Dave