Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday 23 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (-1)

These results are based on June 20-22 polling, and match the average three percentage point advantage held by Obama for the past week.

Obama received a rather short-lived bump in support right after he clinched the nomination, with his lead over McCain stretching to as much as seven points. Since then, voter preferences have been quite stable, with Obama maintaining a slight edge.

Relatively stable voter preferences at this point in the campaign would not be unexpected, as the intensity of the campaign has died down since the primary process concluded. Obama and McCain continue to make speeches and campaign almost daily to attempt to keep themselves in the news, however, the next major events in the campaign will likely be the candidates' selections of their vice presidential running mates later this summer.

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Has Edge on Key Election Issues [June 24, 2008]

Better positioned than McCain on top two issues - gas prices and the economy

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108331/Obama-Has-Edge-Key-Election-Issues.aspx

If you had to choose, who do you think would do a better job on [issue]. [ROTATED]?

Healthcare (41%)*: Obama 51%; McCain 26%
The economy (49%): Obama 48%; McCain 32%
Energy, including gas prices (51%): Obama 47%; McCain 28%
Taxes (34%): Obama 44%; McCain 35%
The situation in Iraq (44%): Obama 43%; McCain 43%
Moral values (34%): Obama 40%; McCain 39%
Illegal immigration (27%): Obama 34%; McCain 36%
Terrorism (41%): Obama 33%; McCain 52%

* % citing issue as being extremely importaint in influencing their vote

USA Today/Gallup, June 15-19, 2008

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday 24 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

McCain vs. Obama as Commander in Chief [June 25, 2008]

McCain gets high marks, but Obama passes 50% threshold

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108373/McCain-vs-Obama-Commander-Chief.aspx

Do you think [John McCain/Barack Obama -- can -- or cannot -- handle the responsibilities of commander in chief of the military?

John McCain: 80% Yes, can; 17% No, can't
Barack Obama: 55% Yes can; 40% No, can't

USA Today/Gallup, June 15-19, 2008

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Holds Slim Advantage Over McCain Among Catholics [26 June, 2008]

Hispanic Catholics tip group in Obama's favor

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108382/Obama-Holds-Slim-Advantage-Over-McCain-Among-Catholics.aspx

Presidential Vote Preference, by Religious Affiliation

Protestant: McCain 48%; Obama 41%

-White: McCain 56%; Obama 32%
-Non-White: McCain 15%; Obama 77%

Catholic: McCain 43%; Obama 47%

-Non-Hispanic: McCain 46%; Obama 43%
- Hispanic: McCain 25%; Obama 66%

Mormon: McCain 70%; Obama 23%

Jewish: McCain 29%; Obama 62%

No religion: McCain 25%; Obama 65%

June 5-23, Gallup Daily tracking

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, 26 June, 2008

Obama - 44% (-1)
McCain - 44% (-1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Americans Prioritize the Economy Over Terrorism [27 June, 2008]

Majority viewpoint persists across all imcomes and among independents

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108415/Americans-Prioritize-Economy-Over-Terrorism.aspx

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Beats McCain on Most Character Ratings [27 June, 2008]

Obama leads on 7 of 10 characteristics, but McCain wins on leadership

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108418/Obama-Beats-McCain-Most-Character-Ratings.aspx

A. Cares about the needs of people like you: Obama 52%; McCain 30%

B. Is a strong and decisive leader: Obama 40%; McCain 46%

C. Shares your values: Obama 47%; McCain 39%

D. Understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives: Obama 54%; McCain 29%

E. Can manage the government effectively: Obama 42%; McCain 42%

F. Is independent in his thoughts and actions: Obama 52%; McCain 36%

G. Is honest and trustworthy: Obama 39%; McCain 35% (14% cite both equally)

H. Has a clear plan for solving the country's problems: Obama 41%; McCain 31% (19% cite neither)

I. Would work well with both parties to get things done in Washington: Obama 48%; McCain 35%

J. Would stand up to the special interests, including those aligned with his party: Obama 48%; McCain 34%

C, D, E, F: Asked of Form A half-sample

G, H, I,  J: Asked of Form B half-sample

USA Today/Gallup, June 15-19, 2008

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Gallup Editors' Election Poll Analysis [27 June, 2008]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108430/Gallup-Editors-Election-Poll-Analysis.aspx

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

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Er... wow.

lol I can't believe that. Fake poll ("air connu").

Of course, "moral values" need not pertain exclusively to such issues as abortion and same-sex marriage, they could, also, apply to, for example, corporate malfeasance. Besides a series of Republican scandals may well have dented the party's traditional advantage

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Er... wow.

lol I can't believe that. Fake poll ("air connu").

Of course, "moral values" need not pertain exclusively to such issues as abortion and same-sex marriage, they could, also, apply to, for example, corporate malfeasance. Besides a series of Republican scandals may well have dented the party's traditional advantage

Dave

indeed but I think that on the election day, Mc Cain will be first on this problem.

I'd be surprised if he isn't but it's plausible that "moral values" won't be the primary factor in determining how one votes to the extent it was in 2004. The 'marriage' issue was, of course, on the ballot in several states which, undoubtedly, galvanised social conservatives. In 2004, social conservatives were core, the vangaurd, among Bush activists; while 22% of voters cited "moral values" as their most important issue, breaking for Bush by 80% to Kerry's 18%

I don't know how salient "values issues" were, in 2006, in terms of voters citing it is their top issue but they broke as follows:

Extremely important (36%): Democrat 40%; Republican 58%
Very important (21%): Democrat 51%; Republican 48%
Somewhat important (20%): Democrat 61%; Republican 37%

Important (77%): Democrat 37.31%; Republican 38.36%

Not at all important (22%): Democrat 69%; Republican 29%

In 2006, white evangelical/born-again Christians (24%) broke Democrat 28% (+7 on 2004) and Republican 70% (-8 on 2004). White evangelicals comprised 71% of evangelicals; but the remaining 29%, largely African-American I'd have thought, obviously closed the gap overall: Democrat 41%; Republican 58%.

Obama is reaching out to centrist evangelicals and Catholics - appealing to their, for want of better words, social consciences. Add to that the distrust many evangelicals have towards McCain. That said, it is a presidential year, which brings the issue of judicial nominees into the mix

Trawling comments as I do on various media sites, I've encountered some hostility towards McCain citing aspects of his private life; namely, his tomcatting when married to his first wife, from whom he separated then divorced so that he could marry his younger, richer mistress

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama takes the lead again ...

Obama - 46% (+2)
McCain - 42% (-2)

Registered voters' preferences had been evenly divided in the prior three Gallup Poll Daily tracking releases. Obama has now pushed slightly back ahead after a stronger showing in Saturday's polling, mirroring the slight advantage he has held for much of June. The polling was the first Gallup had conducted following the "Unity" rally in which Obama and former Democratic nomination rival Hillary Clinton publicly campaigned together.

The presidential race has been close since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in March. The largest lead for either candidate has been just seven percentage points, for Obama after Clinton decided to suspend her campaign.

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, June 30, 2008

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 42% (nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

About One in Four Voters are "Swing Voters" [30 June, 2008]

Higher proportion than in 2004

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108466/About-One-Four-Voters-Swing-Voters.aspx

Voter Preference and Commitment for the 2008 Presidential Election

42% Obama, certain to vote for
8% Obama, could change mind
6% Undecided/Other
9% McCain, could change mind
35% McCain, certain to vote for

Percentage of Swing Voters, by Political Party

16% Democrats
34% Independents
21% Republicans

Percentage of Swing Voters, by Ideology

12% Liberal
27% Moderate
27% Conservative

Views of Barack Obama and John McCain, Swing Voters

50% View both favorably
13% View Obama favorably, McCain unfavorably
17% View McCain favorably, Obama unfavorably
11% View both unfavorably

Views of Barack Obama and John McCain, Committed Voters

25% View both favorably
36% View Obama favorably, McCain unfavorably
31% View McCain favorably, Obama unfavorably
2% View both unfavorably

June 15-19, USA Today/Gallup Poll

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 42% (nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Americans Worry McCain Would Be Too Similar to Bush [1 July, 2008]

About half are concerned Obama would go too far in changing Bush policies

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108490/Americans-Worry-McCain-Would-Too-Similar-Bush.aspx

How concerned are you that, as president, John McCain would pursue policies that are too similar to what George W. Bush has pursued ...

Very concerned: 49% (Democrats 76%; Independents 47%; Republicans 20%)
Somewhat concerned: 19% (Democrats 14%; Independents 20%; Republicans 25%)
Not too concerned: 16% (Democrats 4%; Independents 17%; Republicans 30%)
Not concerned at all: 15% (Democrats 6%; Independents 15%; Republicans 25%)

How concerned are you that, as president, Barack Obama would go too far in changing the policies that George W Bush has pursued ...

Very concerned: 30% (Democrats 16%; Independents 22%; Republicans 56%)
Somewhat concerned: 19% (Democrats 15%; Independents 20%; Republicans 23%)
Not too concerned: 19% (Democrats 21%; Independents 22%; Republicans 14%)
Not at all concerned: 31% (Democrats 47%; Independents 34%; Republicans 7%)

June 15-19, 2008, USA Today/Gallup poll

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

How concerned are you that, as president, John McCain would pursue policies that are too similar to what George W. Bush has pursued ...

Very concerned: 49% (Democrats 76%; Independents 47%; Republicans 20%)
Somewhat concerned: 19% (Democrats 14%; Independents 20%; Republicans 25%)
Not too concerned: 16% (Democrats 4%; Independents 17%; Republicans 30%)
Not concerned at all: 15% (Democrats 6%; Independents 15%; Republicans 25%)

45% of Republicans are concerned that McCain would pursue policies that are too similar to those of Bush

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31% of Democrats are concerned that Obama would go too far in changing the policies Bush has pursued

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Hispanic Voters Solidly Behind Obama [2 July, 2008]

Few demographic differences evident among Hispanics

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108532/Hispanic-Voters-Solidly-Behind-Obama.aspx

Presidential Preference, by Party Identification

Democrats: Obama 78%; McCain 13%
Independents: Obama 55%; McCain 30%
Republicans (18%): Obama 21%; McCain 75%

Presidential Preference, by Ideology

Liberal: Obama 78%; McCain 14%
Moderate: Obama 60%; McCain 28%
Conservative (36%): Obama 46%; McCain 45%

Presidential Preference, by Age

18 to 29 years old: Obama 66%; McCain 26%
30 to 49 years old: Obama 59%; McCain 31%
50 to 64 years old: Obama 56%; McCain 33%
65 years or older: Obama 51%; McCain 30%

Presidential Vote Preference by Demographic Subgroup, Among Hispanics

Men: Obama 60%; McCain 32%
Women: Obama 59%; McCain 29%

College graduate: Obama 60%; McCain 32%
College non-graduate: Obama 59%; McCain 29%

Married: Obama 55%; McCain 35%
Not married: Obama 63%; McCain 25%

Attend Church weekly: Obama 54%; McCain 34%
Attend Church monthly: Obama 61%; McCain 30%
Seldom/Never attend: Obama 63%; McCain 27%

East: Obama 64%; McCain 25%
Midwest: Obama 63%; McCain 25%
South: Obama 52%; McCain 36%
West: Obama 62%; McCain 29%

Monthly income of < $2,000: Obama 62%; McCain 23%
Monthly income of $2,000 to < $5,000: Obama 60%; McCain 31%
Monthly income of $5,000 to < $7,500: Obama 58%; McCain 34%
Monthly income of $7,500 or more: Obama 54%; McCain 39%

Based on aggregated Gallup Poll Daily tracking data, March-June 2008

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

The June 29-July 1 data show a tightening of the race with the candidates falling back into a statistical tie. Obama led by five percentage points in Monday and Tuesday reports -- based largely on polling conducted over the weekend -- perhaps enjoying a slight bounce following his "Unity" rally with former rival Hillary Clinton last Friday.

In the last two individual nights of polling, voter preferences have been closely divided. The race has generally been close in recent weeks, with Obama usually holding a slight edge.

Obama has been able to attain brief leads following his clinching of the nomination in early June and the Obama-Clinton joint campaign appearance.

These slight Obama bumps have proven to be short-lived, and from a larger perspective there has not been a dramatic restructuring of the race in recent weeks. For example, Obama has averaged 46% of the vote going back to Gallup's June 1-5 release, and his daily percentage over this time period has ranged only between 44% and 48%. McCain's percent of the vote has averaged 43%, and his percent has varied only across an even narrower range between 42% and 45%.

[Democratic Hawk]

Just bumping around...  The real Gallup numbers are probably still around Obama +2 to +3%, as they have been for a few weeks now.

So you don't think the 'attacks' on McCain's military service as a qualification to be president are having any impact?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 43% (-1)

As would be expected from any methodology involving repeated sampling from a large population, there have been slight fluctuations in the daily reports of Gallup Poll Daily tracking rolling averages (each based on three days worth of interviewing of over 2,500 registered voters), but little indication for weeks now of substantive change in the structure of the race. The preferences of registered voters between the two major party candidates remain closely divided, with Obama usually polling within a few percentage points of 46%, and McCain polling within a few points of 43%.

Gallup will conduct interviews Thursday, July 3, but will not interview on July 4. The report on the three-day rolling average for Tuesday through Thursday will be posted on gallup.com on Saturday, July 5.

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday, July 5, 2008

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 42% (-1)

Today's three-day rolling average is based on interviewing from July 1-3, 2008. About 5% of voters say they will not vote for either major party candidate while an additional 6% are undecided.

Except for a brief period a week ago when McCain and Obama were tied in voter preference, Obama has had the slight upper hand in the race since Gallup's June 6 report, leading McCain by one to seven percentage points. The last time McCain had any numerical advantage over Obama was in Gallup's June 5 report when he was one percentage point ahead, 46% to 45%. However, the last time McCain had a statistically significant lead was in early May.

Gallup did not conduct daily tracking interviewing on the July 4 holiday. Thus, tomorrow's report will be based on interviews conducted July 2-3 and July 5.

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Obama - 48% (+1)
McCain - 42% (nc)

Today's three-day rolling average is based on interviewing conducted in the two days before the July 4 holiday, July 2-3, and Saturday, July 5 (no interviewing was conducted on July 4). About 5% of voters say they will not vote for either major party candidate while an additional 6% are undecided.

News organizations over the last several days have given extensive play to the precise wording of various Obama statements concerning what he would do regarding withdrawal of troops from Iraq were he to be elected president. So far, there is little sign in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking that this has made a difference in the preferences of registered voters. Of course, it is to be expected that voters' attention is turned elsewhere over a holiday weekend, so a major shift in the standing of the two candidates would be an unusual occurrence. Until the vice presidential nominees are announced and/or the Democratic convention begins in late August, the twin efforts of the campaigns to influence voter perceptions of the race and of the news media to find something new and compelling to say about the race will be competing for what could be sparse voter attention.

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, July 7, 2008

Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Interviews for this latest three-day rolling average were conducted July 3 and 5-6. Obama's four-point advantage over McCain matches his average over the past week.

Obama has held the upper hand in voter preferences over the last month for all but three days, with his lead reaching as much as seven percentage points. This essentially spans the time since Obama wrapped up the Democratic nomination.

McCain enjoyed a similar run in March after he clinched the GOP nomination, maintaining at least a slim numerical advantage for 19 consecutive days, though only by as many as four points during this time.

[Democratic Hawk]

Religious Intensity Predicts Support for McCain [8 July, 2008]

Hispanic Catholics and black Protestants provide notable exceptions

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108688/Religious-Intensity-Predicts-Support-McCain.aspx

Is religion important in your life? Who do you support in the presidential election?

Religion is important in my life (about two-thirds): Obama 40%; McCain 50%
Religion is NOT important in my life (about one-third) : Obama 55%; McCain 36%

Among non-Hispanic whites who are Protestants/non-Catholic Christians:

Important: Obama 27%; McCain 63%
NOT important: Obama 45%; McCain 46%

Among non-Hispanic white Catholics:

Important: Obama 37%; McCain 53%
NOT important: Obama 47%; McCain 45%

Among white Hispanic Catholics:

Important: Obama 57%; McCain 31%
NOT important: Obama 63%; McCain 30%

Among black non-Catholic Christians:

Important: Obama 90%; McCain 4%
NOT important: Obama 92%; McCain 4%

Among Jewish Americans:

Important: Obama 45%; McCain 45%
NOT important: Obama 68%; McCain 26%

Among those of other, non-Christian and non-Jewish religions:

Important: Obama 60%; McCain 30%
NOT important: Obama 68%; McCain 23%

Among those not identifying with a religion:

Important: Obama 61%; McCain 28%
NOT important (89%): Obama 65%; McCain 26%

Aggregate of Gallup Polls, March to June 2008

Dave