Obama leads Huckabee by 6; Palin and Gingrich by 8; Romney by 9 (user search)
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  Obama leads Huckabee by 6; Palin and Gingrich by 8; Romney by 9 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Obama leads Huckabee by 6; Palin and Gingrich by 8; Romney by 9  (Read 1692 times)
Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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Posts: 14,703
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43

« on: July 20, 2009, 12:07:49 PM »

This is very good for the Republicans, one PPP has a slight lean to the left on their polls (sometimes), also they over polled the black population and underpolled the Hispanic population.

What exactly are you talking about ?

11% Black, 11% Hispanic is overpolled ?

Here's how PPP's demographics stack up against the 2008 exit polls:

Liberal: 18% (22%)
Moderate: 43% (44%)
Conservative: 39% (34%)

Male: 45% (47%)
Female: 55% (53%)

Democrat: 42% (39%)
Republican: 35% (33%)
Independent/Other: 23% (28%)

White: 74% (74%)
African-American: 11% (13%)
Hispanic: 11% (9%)
Other: 4% (Asian: 2%)

18-29: 17% (18%)
30-45: 23% (29%)
46-65: 45% (30%)
> 65: 15% (23%)

Northeast: 24% (21%)
South: 34% (32%)
Midwest: 26% (24%)
West: 16% (23%)
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,703
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43

« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2009, 12:41:41 PM »

The regional vote in these hypothetical match-ups are interesting:

Obama vs Gingrich

Northeast: Obama 57%; Gingrich 35%
South: Obama 51%; Gingrich 45%
Midwest: Obama 44%; Gingrich 44%
West: Obama 45%; Gingrich 41%

Obama vs Huckabee

Northeast: Obama 52%; Huckabee 39%
South: Obama 51%; Huckabee 42%
Midwest: Obama 43%; Huckabee 46%
West: Obama 46%; Huckabee 39%

Obama vs Palin

Northeast: Obama 52% ; Palin 42%
South: Obama 54% ; Palin 41%
Midwest: Obama 48% ; Palin 43%
West: Obama 45% ; Palin 49%

Obama vs Romney

Northeast: Obama 49% ; Romney 38%
South: Obama 54% ; Romney 36%
Midwest: Obama 48% ; Romney 41%
West: Obama 38% ; Romney 50%

I don't know whether PPP's regions are compatible with the exits but in 2008, it was:

Northeast: Obama 59%; McCain 40%
South: Obama 45%; McCain 54%
Midwest: Obama 54%; McCain 44%
West: Obama 57%; McCain 40%

And to throw a bit of perspective, here are Gallup's most recent regional approvals and Research 2000's:

Gallup [week ending Jul. 12, 2009]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/121199/Obama-Weekly-Job-Approval-Demographic-Groups.aspx

East: 63% approve
South: 52% approve
Midwest: 60% approve
West: 60% approve

Research 2000/DailyKos [week ending Jul. 16, 2009]

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/7/16

Northeast: 86% favorable; 10% unfavorable
South: 35% favorable; 62% unfavorable
Midwest: 69% favorable; 27% unfavorable
West: 67% favorable; 31% unfavorable
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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*****
Posts: 14,703
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43

« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2009, 12:51:22 PM »

Palin Favorability
  Northeast South Midwest West

 F-   43%         47%    50%      51%
  U- 45%          47%    42%      45%
 DK-  12%          6%      8%         4%

Palin is definitely popular everywhere!!

Frankly, I wouldn't give a woman who incited hatred on the stump at her rallies towards a political opponent the lickings of a dog. That was Obama Derangement Syndrome Roll Eyes at its finest
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,703
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43

« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2009, 04:05:15 PM »

PPP was more accurate than Rasmussen in 2008, for what it's worth.

Also these numbers make a lot more sense than Rasmussen's.

Really? Palin is the strongest candidate in the Northeast for Republicans? How does that make sense?

What's going on in the South? That's enough, were it to ever occur, to make me weep tears of joy!
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