Israel general discussion

[Hnv1]

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Agreed, but that is what Israel faced in 1948 and potentially 1973 tho that wasn't the stated Arab goal of the Yom Kippur War. Other than those two wars, Israel hasn't faced an actual existential threat, just the consequences of living near neighbors who really wish it wasn't there but know they don't have the strength to get rid of Israel.

48 was different. But even if the line would broken in 73 Egypt would have sitting ducks once they tried to get out of the SAM umbrella for 450 km of open desert roads. Syria wouldn’t be able to push beyond the Heights anyhow

[Hnv1]

Oh great a troll poster. IQ and Living Space (I assume you know what it refers to?)

I'll just ignore your presence hoping you disappear

[Hnv1]

How easy would land reclamation from the Med be?

Technically? no idea, i supposed it wouldn't be too hard but it will have a damaging affects to coasts all the way up to Turkey (the sand sweep from the nile goes along the shoreline)

Politically, I don't think neither Israel or Egypt will mind.

[Hnv1]

The IDF now has F-35s, so the S-300 isn't much use there.

#war isn't a computer game.

The S300 constrains the actions of the F15I who are the core jet of the AF, their long range could cause trouble to close air support to ground operations. and numerous other problems.
It's not the game changer, but it definitely makes aerial superiority more challenging 

[Hnv1]

Nivin Abu Rahmon was sword in as MK for Joint List (balad), raising their tally of women to 3.

Though elections is right around the corner next after her are two Jewish women in Lea Zemmel (balad) and Noa Levy (Hadash).

[Hnv1]

Jordan refused to continue the lease of some small enclaves of land to Israel due to public pressure. I doubt we'll see the legion stationed there soon, but the symbolic message is clear

[Hnv1]

Jordan refused to continue the lease of some small enclaves of land to Israel due to public pressure. I doubt we'll see the legion stationed there soon, but the symbolic message is clear

Which enclaves are these?

[Hnv1]

Nivin Abu Rahmon was sword in as MK for Joint List (balad), raising their tally of women to 3.

Though elections is right around the corner next after her are two Jewish women in Lea Zemmel (balad) and Noa Levy (Hadash).

Balad has Jewish members? I thought only Hadash did of the Joint List parties.

Yes, Balad predecessor was even formed by a former Jewish ex general (Mati Peled)

[Hnv1]

Nivin Abu Rahmon was sword in as MK for Joint List (balad), raising their tally of women to 3.

Though elections is right around the corner next after her are two Jewish women in Lea Zemmel (balad) and Noa Levy (Hadash).

Balad has Jewish members? I thought only Hadash did of the Joint List parties.

Yes, Balad predecessor was even formed by a former Jewish ex general (Mati Peled)

The important question being why they're in balad or the joint list in general instead of Meretz.

Well there are differences between those parties and Meretz (certainly with Balad). And Meretz is a zionist party (by their definition), so leftist who don't consider themselves Zionists wouldn't want to be a part of it (usually)

[Hnv1]

Nivin Abu Rahmon was sword in as MK for Joint List (balad), raising their tally of women to 3.

Though elections is right around the corner next after her are two Jewish women in Lea Zemmel (balad) and Noa Levy (Hadash).

Balad has Jewish members? I thought only Hadash did of the Joint List parties.

Yes, Balad predecessor was even formed by a former Jewish ex general (Mati Peled)

Relative of Miko?

His father

[Hnv1]

When personal politics covers constitutional crisis. (personal favorite political situation for me)

So yesterday Bibi's newspaper published a sensational piece about how President Rivlin and former Minister Saar planned to appoint the latter to form a government after the next elections (Where Bibi is anticipated to win in a landslide). Bibi certainly thinks its the case (or he's trying to capitalize on it), Rivlin and Saar both denied and practically called Bibi a psychopath. Bibi said they'll change the basic law so that the head of the biggest party will automatically have the mandate to try and form a government (or maybe only part heads could do so).
* on a personal note, I don't think this was genuily on the cards, but I wouldn't rule Rivlin doing so if it was the case in real time. He seems like to person to make the normative stand that a prime minister in the middle of massive corruption charges is unfit to serve (it definitely looks bad on the outside, every decision he makes appears to be related to his cases)

But underlying the personal political crisis is an interesting constitutional question.
de jure the basic law gives the president absolute discretion to choose any MK to form a government, but de facto it has to be the the head of a party and almost always the largest party. (similar to how the monarch can appoint a PM from the lords but it is essentially impossible in custom). Actually picking a random MK is of course politically impossible, but picking an MK from the biggest party with the rest of the parties agreeing is less problematic,** though it would be very problematic when the entire election campaign ran along the lines of the personality of the leader (as Bibi plans).
so basically it's not completely untenable just unlikely considering the political climate atm

Another thing to note here is that Bibi is becoming shameless in his desire to reign by bending constitutional norms to fit his personal will. This is a worrying sign, he's not going to go down without a fight and it will be dirty. 


**Eshkol essentially formed one of the last Ben Gurion governments as he was loathed by all of his partners

[Hnv1]

As Jackie Levi (Likud) was elected as mayor of Beit Shaan yesterday, Osnat Mark will be sworn in as an MK in his place.

[Hnv1]

Lieberman is expected to resign today due disagreements over Gaza/his terrible public image. The coalition is now back to a 61 MK majority, can’t last long

[Hnv1]

Lieberman has indeed resigned and YB has left the coalition. Bibi now also seeks to become Defense Minister (in addition to being PM and Foreign Minister...), but Bennett wants to get that position himself and threatens to leave the coalition as well if he doesn't get it. An early election it is, I guess.

Bibi won’t yield to him. Elections it is. February/March

[Hnv1]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/16/middleeast/israel-elections-intl/index.html

It's official. There will be new elections.

So, is the end of Netanyahu as PM?

If Likud still wins the most seats, but has trouble forming a coalition, could someone other than Netanyahu be able to form a coalition?

Which opposition party is currently best positioned to form a coalition government?

Will anyone be able to form a government without the religious parties (which is my dream for Israeli Politics).

not official, but soon, they just need to settle the date.

No, I fully expect Bibi to remain PM in almost the same coalition afterwards.

No opposition party is even remotely close to a coalition, especially with the Haredi.

[Hnv1]

What if no-one can form a government?

legally, another election. practically, not going to ever happen.

[Hnv1]

JH rescinded their demand to get the MoD after Bibi claimed some obscure claims about a delicate security situation. election for now avoided, though this narrow coalition will face a lot of difficulties.

Bibi will have to appoint a Minister of Foreign Affairs though before the supreme court forces him. I bet Steinitz or Hanegbi will get it.

[Hnv1]

JH rescinded their demand to get the MoD after Bibi claimed some obscure claims about a delicate security situation. election for now avoided, though this narrow coalition will face a lot of difficulties.

Bibi will have to appoint a Minister of Foreign Affairs though before the supreme court forces him. I bet Steinitz or Hanegbi will get it.

What about Kulanu? Kahlon seems pretty intent on an election to escape the aftermath of his economic policies.

what about them? he may want to have the election sooner but he has not plausible cause to break the coalition now.

[Hnv1]

Those who actually use Airbnb wouldn't care, those who don't would but it means very little to them

[Hnv1]

Amos Oz has died.

Sad news.

I would like to know if our Israeli posters have a word to say...

Met him on several occasions, was a great author and speaker. His brand of pragmatic progressivism just didn’t speak to growing number of illiberal Jews especially the immigrants from the ME and the former USSR

[Hnv1]

Naftali Bennett, Ayelet Shaked and Shuli Maulem leaving Bayit Yehudi and start their own party: HaYamin HeHadash

because, you know, Israeli politics isn't already wild lol.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/bennett-shaked-expected-to-announce-break-from-jewish-home-form-new-party/

I have no doubt their future aim is merging with Likud.

[Hnv1]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mcjesus-sculpture-ronald-mcdonald-crucifix-outrage-christians-israel/

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Oh, and here's a photo.



Would that offend you?

The question is should anyone's feeling be of interest here?

[Hnv1]

Well today when I was doing some legal work on something else I found something interesting. It appears that the status of an Enemy State that Iraq had since 48 was knowingly abolished on 1.1.2019. I wonder what’s that about, but anyhow business in Iraq is now legal.

No I don’t think it has anything to do with Kurds