I was already pointed but it's worth repeating - there are MoEs on polls. I think the aggregate of polls indicates Clinton is ahead by 7% or so. A 4% lead is just at the low end of a 95% confidence interval around that point.
You should always have some polls coming in at a lead several % below where you think the race actually is.
I'm fully aware of that. That doesn't make it any less disturbing that what should have been one of the worst weeks in American history for a presidential candidate barely makes a dent in the polling. Do keep in mind that Hillary was already up 5-6% prior to the Access Hollywood tape. All public polling has also shown that she won the second debate decisively, albeit by a smaller margin than the first. With an entire week dedicated to that tape and now a substantial number of women claiming sexual assault from the Republican nominee, the race is still this close. What would it take? Sexual assaulting women isn't enough? What if a woman or women come forward to say they were raped? Would that make any difference?
Unlike some, I don't think we're seeing a civil war or death of a political party. I think we may be seeing the end of a great power, the United States itself. All great powers have eventually reached an end point. I don't think Donald Trump himself is the end, but I think the movement he has encouraged and adopted is very dangerous. The only sign to the contrary would be a serious and massive rejection of that viewpoint by the electorate. A four point margin is not that sort of rejection by the masses.
