Madison County and Mobile County are the ones to really watch.
I would also be looking closely at Jefferson County and Shelby County....
Although Jones doesn't have to win Shelby County for a win, he does need to pick up a decent chunk of Republican leaning voters in suburban Birmingham, which actually is a decent chunk of the vote in Jefferson County, once you take out the cities of Birmigham and Bessemer (That vote overwhelmingly Democratic).... If he's not winning Metro Birmingham, it's difficult to see how he put's together a statewide win....Based on what everyone else is saying, I'm guessing that Jones basically has to win Tuscaloosa County if he's to have a chance? It seems like a Democratic win means the Black Belt gets thickened and Democrats pick up Mobile, Madison (Huntsville), and maybe Talladega (which I only know from knowing NASCAR fans). For the most part, it's the margins you have to look at in a strongly racially polarized state like Alabama. What's the thinking on Jefferson County, something around 65%?
