UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[politicallefty]

Wow. I didn't get a prediction in, but I would've said predicted something like Cons with 340 and maybe 8% win the popular vote. Ugh though if the exit polls are true. A total disaster.

The irony is that it probably would've been better if May had got this majority in 2017. I know you can't think that way, but still. They Tories could've eaten themselves alive and Labour might have been able to move from Corbyn back then.

[politicallefty]

It was Labour since 1918 apart from a 1976 by-election.

[politicallefty]

Tories gain Vale of Clwyd: Chris Ruane, Labour member since the 1997 blowout, loses on a 5.5% swing.

Tories gained it in 2015, but lost it in 2017. So, third election in a row now where it's changed parties.

[politicallefty]

It looks like a Labour shutout in Scotland can't be ruled out. Actually, it looks likely.

[politicallefty]

Cons gain Kensington.

[politicallefty]

Kensington to Cons.

While losing ground by -3.9%.

It went from a Labour win of 20 votes to a Con win of 150 votes this time.

[politicallefty]

SNP gains Gordon from Con.

[politicallefty]

Leave - 43%
Regret - 6%
Accept - 13%
Remain - 37%

Always going to be a Conservative win with those percentages either wanting to leave or accept leaving.

I was actually going to make a post some thoughts wondering about that question myself, in particular that third group ("Accept"). Obviously, Corbyn was a massive problem for Labour and really and truly unelectable (I see no reason to pile on here though). However, I think the other main reason the Tories won was due to that third group. If I had to wager a guess, I think that group voted especially Conservative because they're sick and tired of the gridlock and tired of the Brexit debate. It's completely and totally dominated everything for the past 3.5 years now. The prospect of a second Brexit referendum, another divisive campaign and stretching the Brexit debate out even longer, had to have been a massive anathema to them and a lot other voters as well. I don't like any of this myself personally, but "Get Brexit Done" was a simple, yet very powerful message that probably did resonate with a good portion of Remain voters (let alone allowing them to win the lion's share of Leave voters). A Conservative Majority was ultimately the only realistic possibility to end the gridlock and just get it over with.

[politicallefty]

My parents and sister voted Conservative largely for that reason; also a dislike of Corbyn. I think my parents usually vote Conservative anyway, but may have voted Lib Dem in the past (my constituency was a Con-Lib marginal in the 2000s), while my sister voted Lib Dem at the last two elections as an anti-Conservative vote, IIRC, but was massively put off by their revoke policy and wanted closure to the Brexit process. She also said that she couldn't work out what Labour's policy actually was on Brexit - not knowing if they actually wanted to go ahead with it or they were attempting to cover up that they actually supported remaining.

Incidentally, the Ashcroft poll included a question about how people would've voted if Brexit wasn't an issue - coming out as:

Con: 42% (-3); 353 seats (-12)
Lab: 33% (nc); 209 seats (+7)
SNP: 4% (nc); 47 seats (-1)
Lib: 12% (nc); 16 seats (+5)
PC: 1% (nc); 4 seats (nc)
Grn: 5% (+2); 1 seat (nc)
Brx: 2% (nc); 0 seats (nc)
Oth: 2% (+1); 2 seats (+1)

Ah, thanks, always interesting to hear from a first-hand account. But yeah, it doesn't surprise me in the least. That was another problem under Corbyn's leadership. Labour was too wishy-washy on Brexit when it came to actually having a position. It's different when you're voting in Parliament against particular deals. It's quite another when the only articulated position is to just vote again and everything a 2nd referendum would entail. If you don't mind me asking, what constituency or region are your parents and sister from (when you say Con-Lib marginal, my mind seems to automatically go to the Southwest)?

I'm not sure if I buy that part of the poll entirely. It's so hard to remove Brexit from the minds of voters, even when asked. It's like telling someone not to think about something that you specifically tell them not to think about something (I remember that from my Psych class tbh). There's also a bit of a butterfly effect too. If Brexit were never an issue, Cameron would still be PM and elections would be 5 months away. Everyone seems to want to hate Theresa May, but this was all set in motion by David Cameron.

[politicallefty]

Incidentally, and usual caveats about this sort of data, Ipsos Mori had the cross break for 18-24 year olds in 2010 as
Conservatives - 31%
Labour -  30%
Lib Dem - 30%

The same cohort now make up the bulk of this year's 25-34 year olds. So for them to swing (probably lots of Lib Dem deserters, and lots 2010 non-voters) to 55%-23% in favour of Labour this year suggests that something has happened over the last 10 years to radicalise them.

Same story with 2010's 25-34 year olds. That cohort has gone from a 5% Tory lead to a 15% Labour one. This isn't exactly people getting Conservative as they get older.

I have to wonder if the coalition deal hasn't compromised the Lib Dems for at least a generation, maybe permanently. (We all know the sayings about making a deal with the devil.) They've had a decent recovery in the popular vote since their 2015 cataclysm, but their seat total has hardly moved.