I'd have said Trump would win. I thought third parties would do much better than they ended up doing and that 46% could win the popular vote with Hillary pulling 44-45% and the third parties at 9-10% combined.
I'd have actually said Trump would do
better than he actually did, his map plus Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada, and minus Michigan and Wisconsin and maybe Utah (that high a third-party vote may have kicked Utah to Hillary). Maine at-large and Minnesota, wouldn't have been on my radar, but New Hampshire may have been. I guess I'd have probably said Trump would win it, too.
Come to think of it, Mormons defecting en masse to third parties probably would have kept Nevada from voting Trump as well, but I'm not sure I'd have been able to make that connection at the time.
