ill ind
Jr. Member
Posts: 488
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« on: November 06, 2009, 08:12:30 PM » |
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I do not see Il-1,Il-2, or Il-7 expanding in the way that you mention. All three will need people, but they will be remapped out to keep AA majorities. Shoving Il-7 out into the east central portion of Il-6 will add population, but will not keep the district majority AA, nor will adding any of the predominately Hispanic areas of Il-4.
I know that you are using some sort of software, but it doesn't take into account the racial brakdown of the Chicago districs--something that will be taken account of in the remap after 2010.
I worked on a remap--eliminating Il-10 and protecting the rest of the incumbents some months ago. My experience was that with the spreading thinner of the AA population and the depopolation of many of the inner city AA neighborhoods, it will be barely possible to maintain 3 50% +1 AA districts in 2010. In 2020, I think that it will be an impossibility. Perhaps then, there will be 2 AA districts and 2 Hispanic disticts, which will eliminate the ridiculous Il-4 (the loop connecting the two main areas being cemetaries, Union Pacific's Proviso classification yards, Proviso West High School, various forest preserves, and empty land between Interstates 290 and 294.
Downstate took the hit 10 years ago, and it would be politically unpalatable to get rid of a downstate district this tims, so the Chicago area will take the hit. Whoever gets elected in Il-10 will be the most junior member of the Il-delegation--providing no incumbents lose--so that district may indeed be the one gotten rid of.
Ill Ind
Ill Ind
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