ill ind
Jr. Member
Posts: 488
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« on: March 10, 2010, 09:38:21 AM » |
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I think that this all comes down to the model used in determining the 'likely voter' demograpics in November of 2010. Right now it's a total crapshoot. R2000 uses one model and Rasmussen a totally different one.
R2000's party breakdown pretty much mirror's the exit polling results from 2006. Shave 2% off of the Dems and 2% off of the GOP and add them to independents.
The R2000 poll that had Quinn ahead by 15%, imho oversampled the City of Chicago and undersampled the burbs.
43% of R2000's sample was from Chicago/Cook County and that should be around 37% or so.
19% of R2000's sample was from the Collar Counties and that should be around 24% or so.
Taking that into consideration and refiguring R2000's number based on that, the difference drops to 11% between Quinn and Brady.
In addition, R2000's poll only has a sample size of 16% for voters 60+. In 2006, that number was 29%. I have no reason to believe that number will be changed any in this mideterm. Quinn is winning by 7% in this group, which is far less than the 15% top line number, so shave a few more points off of that.
With the modifications, I've listed, I would adjust R2000's number to having Quinn ahead by 7% or so.
Now on to Rasmussen.
Since I'm a cheapskate and don't subscribe, I have no crosstabs to go on.
Rassmussen appears to use this 'very favorable' vs 'very unfavorable' number in determining the topline. He uses the same thing in his Presidential approval polls, which seems to make his the most anti-Obama ones out there. Rassmussen makes the statement on his results page "At this point in the campaign, Rassmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers." There is Rassy's get out of jail free card--his caveat to say whatever he wants to in his polls!! Right now, some 8 months out from the election, those numbers probably have more validity than they do on election day when alot of people will vote for a candidate that they aren't tremendously excited about. That's the number that counts. He was obviously off on both parties' primaries. In the Dem primary it looks like lots of people who weren't really hot about voting for Quinn went in and did so anyways. Rassmussen had Hynes up 43% to 37%. Undecideds split 2:1 for Quinn.
Quinn's approval number of 43% in Rasmussen's poll almost mirrors the 44% who either have a very favorable opinion or a favorable opinion of Quinn in R2000's poll.
Anyways, I believe that Rassmussen also has a skewed view and that his statement of "Given Illinois' strong Democratic leanings, the race is sure to tighten in the days ahead." means that even he doesn't think that his own sampling model will probably hold up through election day--at least not in Illinois anyways.
The number to look at is the 43% Rassmussen and 44% R2000 Quinn approval number. That one is a tough one to get by. However, it is Brady who has to define himself and right out of the gat, I would say that his efforts have been poor at best. He has plenty of time to right the ship as does Quinn.
Muon mentioned Quinn's upcoming budget address. Quinn's entire candidacy may hinge on this one event. If he comes across as not having any ideas, then he is toast. If he can convince state residents that he has a plan and that he can begin to right the state's financial picture--even if that does include a tax hike, then his candidacy has a future.
In summary, both polls are nice, but in reality do not mean a whole heck of alot right now. Everybody gets to take home a poll tht shows 'their' candidate ahead.
Ill_Ind
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