Why did Kerry lose Virginia so badly in 2004?

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I think Karl Rove says that Kerry could have won Virginia if he had challenged Virginia, and put resources into the state.

The issue is that Virginia had been Republican for so long that Democrats didn't realize that it had become a Democrat state until after.

Karl Rove, again, points to West Virginia as a comparison. West Virginia was considered a Democrat state for a while; Bill Clinton won it by a good margin. But then the GOP realized that it was a GOP state, they put resources into it, and it's been a GOP stronghold since 2000.

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As others have pointed out, VA was still a safe/likely Republican state at the time. I highly doubt the state was winnable for Kerry. Maybe if he won by a large margin nationally he could've gotten within 4-5%.

VA only swung 0.16% more Republican in 2004 anyway and even swung Democratic when compared to the national popular vote.

Things don’t change so dramatically in 4 years. It was always a Democrat state. They just didn’t realize and put resources in the state until afterwards.