Who will win the Connecticut GOP primary?

[Ronnie]

I am thinking about supporting Linda McMahon, because she could beat Chris Dodd big time in the money battle.  On the other hand, Rob Simmons is polling very well now, and the GOP would be taking a chance with McMahon.

Discuss

[CatoMinor]

Most likely Simmons, you left out quite a few people on there, its not a two person primary. Schiff and a couple others are still in it.

[Ronnie]

That's why I included other.

Yeah, I guess I didn't think about this.  Still, I think these two are favored.

[Lunar]

I think McMahon's stock is undervalued, but I wouldn't bet on her outright yet.  If she can appeal to GOP women she'll be in great shape

[Lief 🗽]

Who is the teabaggier of the two? McMahon, presumably? Then she'll win.

[Rowan]

Simmons wins. Isn't the candidate decided at a convention or something?

[Meeker]

Simmons wins. Isn't the candidate decided at a convention or something?

They endorse a candidate at a convention, but any candidate that receives 15% of the convention vote is allowed to be placed on the primary ballot. Or anyone who can gather enough signatures to place themselves on the primary ballot.

In short she'll have no problem getting on the ballot.

[tmthforu94]

I'd like to see polling between McMahon and Dodd before committing.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

You forgot Caligiuri, Schiff and Foley.

[pogo stick]

Linda McMahon. Because that's who I am supporting.

[Lunar]

You forgot Caligiuri, Schiff and Foley.

Caliguiri has no oxygen, he's overperformed in some past elections, but he can't compete with four opponents, all of whom will likely spend at least $2-5 million in the primary.  

Schiff has a good story to tell, I just don't think anybody's going to hear it.

And Foley is a wannabe McMahon who is most likely pretty much just being her Ralph Nader.

I mean, the race has to shift around a lot, but I consider this a McMahon vs. Simmons race until the other candidates can show some indications that they're running quality campaigns [I believe McMahon probably has the most professional level of talent hired, followed by Simmons]

and Dodd wants to face McMahon or Caliguiri, I think, but he might prefer a Schiff opponent just because Schiff would be a national candidate and not a local one...and Connecticut is a Democratic state on the national level....I don't know, it's all really confusing, it's like a far more muddled version of the MA primary we're gonna see in a couple months,

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Simmons wins. Isn't the candidate decided at a convention or something?

Sort of.  Candidates need to get a certain number of votes at the convention to be able to force a primary vote.  It's not as easy as it sounds, and Simmons stands a chance at being able to keep from having to face a primary at all.

[Eraserhead]

Hopefully McMahon. That would provide for a hilarious general election. It'll probably be Simmons though.

[Lunar]

Simmons wins. Isn't the candidate decided at a convention or something?

Sort of.  Candidates need to get a certain number of votes at the convention to be able to force a primary vote.  It's not as easy as it sounds, and Simmons stands a chance at being able to keep from having to face a primary at all.

I think that helps Simmon's opponents, as there will be a smaller field of anti-establishment candidates to split the anti-establishment vote.

[Ronnie]

QUINNIPIAC PRIMARY VOTE:

Simmons              28%
Foley                     9%
Caligiuri                 4%
McMahon              17%
Schiff                     5%
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2%
DK/NA                    36%

I hope this reaffirms my decision to leave out Caliguiri and Foley.

[Lunar]

Well, McMahon is the only one on the air, right?  I presume Foley and Schiff will go on the air too at some point and boost their poll numbers.

I'd be surprised if two thirds quarters of GOP primary voters already have an opinion on all five of these people or have even heard of most of them

[Badger]

The key is to see who emerges from the convention with the 15% support for ballot access. If one of the other candidates can make themselves the sole conservative/anti-establishment alternative in a one-on-one primary against Simmons, they have a shot at winning the nomination. If two or more of Simmons challengers make the primary ballot they'll almost certainly split the vote sufficiently for Simmons to win, as even a one-on-one shot against Simmons will have less than even odds of success.

[Vepres]

Well, McMahon is the only one on the air, right?  I presume Foley and Schiff will go on the air too at some point and boost their poll numbers.

I'd be surprised if two thirds quarters of GOP primary voters already have an opinion on all five of these people or have even heard of most of them

Let's see: 2*((1/3)*1/4)... 2/12 = 1/6.

A weird way of saying one sixth

[Yankee Republican]

I think Rob Simmons will win the GOP primary. Republicans in CT (at least the ones I know) greatly value experience in elected office, something that Rob Simmons has over his main primary opponents (Sam Caliguri, who is in his 2nd term as a State Senator, is the only primary opponent with experience who is now thinking about getting out of the Senate race and running for Congress in the 5th District or for governor). Simmons has a generally socially moderate, fiscally conservative voting record from his 3 terms in Congress, which matches most Republicans in CT. Republicans really want someone who has experience taking down entrenched incumbents, which Rob Simmons did when he won a deep blue congressional district in 2000 by defeating a 20 year incumbent Democrat Sam Gejdenson. I don't think Republicans want to take a chance on someone like McMahon who has no electoral experience and has some political baggage already (apparently she has donated thousands of dollars to Democrats over the years, including the guy that beat Simmons in 2006 by 89 votes and to Rahm Emanuel)!

[CatoMinor]

QUINNIPIAC PRIMARY VOTE:

Simmons              28%
Foley                     9%
Caligiuri                 4%
McMahon              17%
Schiff                     5%
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2%
DK/NA                    36%

I hope this reaffirms my decision to leave out Caliguiri and Foley.

I was expecting Schiff would do better