What if 8 states switched?

[HoopsCubs]

A lot of analysts compare this race to 2000, and suggest that a state here or state there could flip.

When I look at some of the polls (I know that's dangerous), I almost sense that something dramatic like this could happen:

Bush wins Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico, Oregon and 1 EV in Maine.

Meanwhile... Kerry wins Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire and 3 EVs in Maine.

Final score: Kerry 271, Bush 267.


Hoops

[elcorazon]

quite possible, although I think Kerry's going to hold Oregon.

Nevada's been visited quite a bit lately, anybody think it's still in play.

[AuH2O]

Nevada is not in play.

If Kerry wins Florida he will do well in the Midwest, approaching 300 EVs. But that's highly unlikely.

I expect Bush to take a number of the close Gore states.

[HoopsCubs]

Nevada is not in play.

If Kerry wins Florida he will do well in the Midwest, approaching 300 EVs. But that's highly unlikely.

really I expect Bush to take a number of the close Gore states.

I think Florida's influx of new Hispanic voters and the Cuban-American vote in Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties is going to surprise the Republican party.  I was just in Miami in September.  Bush won the Cuban vote 84-16 in 2000.  But this year, there are projections indicating it will be only 70-30 - Bush's unpopularity has increased due to the newest travel restrictions the government has imposed.   The 14% drop in that demographic plus a growing voter base among Mexicans and Dominicans could tip the scales to Kerry.  It will be a late night for sure, but I do see Kerry-Edwards winning Florida.

[AuH2O]

Well my prediction is based on Bush winning the popular vote nationally. Not to mention Jeb Bush, the hurricane response, military voters, increased Jewish support for Bush, etc.

If Bush loses the pop vote he could well lose Florida, but he would probably lose Ohio and Wisconsin as well so it wouldn't matter.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Oregon is pretty safe for Kerry