Siena polls four NY State Senate seats (SD3, SD11, SD44, SD48)

[Mr.Phips]

It should be noted that in 2006 despite Clinton and Client number nine winning with 65% and 69%, the only three House seats the GOP lost, all had flawed candidates, which with the exception of NY-24, probably determined the outcome.

NY-19 Sue Kelly, Foley Scandal
NY-20 John Sweeney, Personal scandal
NY-24 Raymond Meier, ran a very desperate ad that backfired (still would have lost but by 3 or 4 instead of 10).

Walsh, Reynolds, and Kuhl all held on.

In 2008. Three more seats were lost, one of which was due to scandal, NY-13. The others a weak incumbent (NY-29, likely a fluke), and NY-25 (No GOP candidate of enough stature to hold such a seat, especially in that environment).

Combine a good environment, with some good candidates and you will see some strong showings despite Schumer getting 61%-64% and Cuomo 58% (I think that is most he would get now).

SD-35 is a far more Democratic district than any of the House districts Democrats picked up in 2006 or 2008.  I think even Dukakis won it in 1988. 

1) Strong showins /= wins

2) I was refuting the Coattails arguement.

Top of the ticket strength will protect incumbents absent a scandal.  That's the reason I predict only one House pickup for Republicans in New York, while I predict three in Ohio and four in Pennsylvania where Republicans have a lot of strength at the top of the ticket. 

[cinyc]

The district was held due to incumbency by a Republican.  Many deep South districts that were won two to one by Bush were won by Republicans this decade and Democrats did not win them back in 2006 or 2008.  Democratic turnout isnt going to be anywhere near as low as it was in 2009 this year.  

This is a D+11 district that Bush only got 39% in in 2004.  If this was an open seat, Republicans might have an outside chance this year, but not if there is an incumbent.  Id be willing to bet that Stewart-Cousins wins with at least 55%.  

The Westchester County Executive was an entrenched Democratic incumbent in 2009 - in a county that Obama won two-to-one in 2008 and where Bush only got 40% in 2004.  Yet, he lost - by double digits - to a social conservative in a very liberal county.  Few expected it.

Your main argument seems to be that Cuomo is going to win the NYC suburbs big and will have strong coattails.  Leaving aside the question of whether coattails exist, even the best poll for Cuomo - Marist - shows him with only a slight advantage in the NYC suburbs (49-43) - and SUSA actually shows Paladino up by 1 (45-44).  Cuomo will clean up in NYC.  Paladino will clean up in Western NY.  The NYC Suburbs and the rest of Upstate should be competitive if Paladino keeps the race close.  

Your other argument seems to be that 2009 was a fluke and Democrats will show up at the polls this cycle.  I see no evidence that New York Democrats are any more enthusiastic about voting in November than their counterparts in the rest of the country.  Republicans will be crawling over broken glass to vote, even in New York.

Will the Democratic incumbents in SDs 35 and 36 win?  Probably.  But I wouldn't count out an upset.

Democrats are getting more enthusiastic now that it looks realistic that the House could go Republican.   SD-36 is a district Obama got 95% in, so Republicans arent winning there.  Cuomo will win SD-35 with at least 55%, making it nearly impossible for the Republican to win there.  

Democratic turnout was super-low everywhere in 2009 and Republican turnout was super-high.  I conceed that Republican turnout will still be super-high, but Democratic turnout is going to be a lot higher than 2009.  

I'm off by a number - SD-37 (Oppenheimer), not SD-36, which is a minority-majority district, mainly in the Bronx.  

We'll see what Cuomo's numbers are in the NYC suburbs.  If Paladino keeps it close, I doubt Cuomo will break 55% there.  I also don't think it matters much - people are more likely to vote for him and a Republican State Senator than for Paladino and a Democratic State Senator, anyway.  In SD-35, Stewart-Cousins didn't get anywhere near Spitzer's percentage in the district in 2006 and even fell short of Obama's percentage in 2008.

[Mr.Phips]

The district was held due to incumbency by a Republican.  Many deep South districts that were won two to one by Bush were won by Republicans this decade and Democrats did not win them back in 2006 or 2008.  Democratic turnout isnt going to be anywhere near as low as it was in 2009 this year.  

This is a D+11 district that Bush only got 39% in in 2004.  If this was an open seat, Republicans might have an outside chance this year, but not if there is an incumbent.  Id be willing to bet that Stewart-Cousins wins with at least 55%.  

The Westchester County Executive was an entrenched Democratic incumbent in 2009 - in a county that Obama won two-to-one in 2008 and where Bush only got 40% in 2004.  Yet, he lost - by double digits - to a social conservative in a very liberal county.  Few expected it.

Your main argument seems to be that Cuomo is going to win the NYC suburbs big and will have strong coattails.  Leaving aside the question of whether coattails exist, even the best poll for Cuomo - Marist - shows him with only a slight advantage in the NYC suburbs (49-43) - and SUSA actually shows Paladino up by 1 (45-44).  Cuomo will clean up in NYC.  Paladino will clean up in Western NY.  The NYC Suburbs and the rest of Upstate should be competitive if Paladino keeps the race close.  

Your other argument seems to be that 2009 was a fluke and Democrats will show up at the polls this cycle.  I see no evidence that New York Democrats are any more enthusiastic about voting in November than their counterparts in the rest of the country.  Republicans will be crawling over broken glass to vote, even in New York.

Will the Democratic incumbents in SDs 35 and 36 win?  Probably.  But I wouldn't count out an upset.

Democrats are getting more enthusiastic now that it looks realistic that the House could go Republican.   SD-36 is a district Obama got 95% in, so Republicans arent winning there.  Cuomo will win SD-35 with at least 55%, making it nearly impossible for the Republican to win there.  

Democratic turnout was super-low everywhere in 2009 and Republican turnout was super-high.  I conceed that Republican turnout will still be super-high, but Democratic turnout is going to be a lot higher than 2009.  

I'm off by a number - SD-37 (Oppenheimer), not SD-36, which is a minority-majority district, mainly in the Bronx.  

We'll see what Cuomo's numbers are in the NYC suburbs.  If Paladino keeps it close, I doubt Cuomo will break 55% there.  I also don't think it matters much - people are more likely to vote for him and a Republican State Senator than for Paladino and a Democratic State Senator, anyway.  In SD-35, Stewart-Cousins didn't get anywhere near Spitzer's percentage in the district in 2006 and even fell short of Obama's percentage in 2008.

She obviously didnt get anywhere near Spitzer's percentage because she was running against an incumbent.  An incumbent will always outperform the top of the ticket unless there is a scandal.  She got about the same as Obama in 2008. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Four more districts got polled:

SD-40 (open R)

Greg Ball (R) - 45
Michael Kaplowitz (D) - 44

SD-49

David Valesky (D-inc) - 50
Andrew Russo (R) - 40

SD-55

James Alesi (R-inc) - 55
Mary Wilmot (D) - 35

SD-58 (D incumbent defeated in primary)

Jack Quinn (R) - 42
Tim Kennedy (D) - 39
William Stachowski (WF/IP-inc) - 12

[Mr.Phips]

Four more districts got polled:

SD-40 (open R)

Greg Ball (R) - 45
Michael Kaplowitz (D) - 44

SD-49

David Valesky (D-inc) - 50
Andrew Russo (R) - 40

SD-55

James Alesi (R-inc) - 55
Mary Wilmot (D) - 35

SD-58 (D incumbent defeated in primary)

Jack Quinn (R) - 42
Tim Kennedy (D) - 39
William Stachowski (WF/IP-inc) - 12

SD-58 is actually closer than I expected.  Valesky isnt losing as many Republicans seem to think.  That district went for Obama by 20 points and Cuomo will carry it by 20 like it says in the poll.

[Brittain33]

Jack Quinn (R) - 42
Tim Kennedy (D) - 39
William Stachowski (WF/IP-inc) - 12

It helps to have the same full name as a popular Republican ex-congressman from the area.

Stachowski's still on the WF line? Fail for Dems.

[cinyc]

Not to be left out of the crappy uni polling fold, Iona College in Westchester is opening a polling center, too.  Their first poll, taken, as best I can tell from other sources, at some unspecified time in September, was of the SD-35 race.  It showed Democratic incumbent Stewart-Cousins leading Republican McLaughlin 44% to 37%.  19% were undecided.

Iona promises polls of SD-37, SD-40 and NY-19.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     NY-19 could use a poll, though I would prefer one that is actually semi-decent.

[cinyc]

    NY-19 could use a poll, though I would prefer one that is actually semi-decent.

You wouldn't trust a uni-poll from a college polling center that has no track record at all?

I can't even find the toplines for Iona's SD-35 poll, just few sentences in a press release.  That poll was taken September 21 and 26, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.

Edit:  I found a better press release for the SD-35 poll.  It was dated September 24.  I don't get how Iona polled after that date and came to the same results.

http://www.calltoactioncampaign.org/pollresults.html

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So this poll seems to be sponsored by some kind of anti-tax group?

[cinyc]

So this poll seems to be sponsored by some kind of anti-tax group?

The sponsorship of Iona's polls is bizarre - RNN-TV, a little-watched, liberal-leaning TV station and the Call to Action Campaign of the Westchester County Association, a pro-business, anti-big government organization.   Both are putting on local debates.  The SD-35 debate was last month; SD-40 is this week (so expect Iona's SD-40 poll soon).  NY-19 is next week; SD-37 the week after.

Edit: The SD-40 debate doesn't appear to be sponsored by RNN - but the polls are.

Iona's polls are IVR, according to the newspaper for most of the NYC northern suburbs.

[cinyc]

Iona's SD-40 poll:

Ball (R)           - 45%
Kapowitz (D) - 35%
Undecided      - 20%

September 30-October 3; MOE +/- 4.1%; Unknown if LVs or RVs.

SD-40 is an open Republican seat.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/38708000/Ball-Kaplowitz-Poll-Release

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Jack Quinn (R) - 42
Tim Kennedy (D) - 39
William Stachowski (WF/IP-inc) - 12

It helps to have the same full name as a popular Republican ex-congressman from the area.

Stachowski's still on the WF line? Fail for Dems.

This one's headed for a GOP takeover.

Western NY (Erie/Niagara especially) arguably is the only part of Upstate NY that has trended Republican since 2000 at the state and Federal level.  Lots of disenfranchised white working class/tea-party "I'M MAD AS HELL TOO, CARL" folks here.  I won't be surprised to see Paladino at 60% in Erie and 66% in Niagara in the election, even if Cuomo landslides throughout the state.