They Meet Again: The Story of the 2012 Presidential Election

[Progressive]

From The New York Times:

The Iowa Caucuses have given Republican voters two candidates to choose from, each have his own vision for a 'more perfect union.' This primary season started off with twelve declared candidates, eight making it to the first contest, four debates, countless town halls, and enough ads to excite even the most jaded politico.


Iowa Caucuses: 99.6% Reporting
Mike Huckabee 39.4%     (X)
Mitt Romney    29.3%
Sarah Palin      10.6%
Haley Barbour   7.1%
Mitch Daniels    7.0%
Rick Santorum  3.2%
Gary Johnson   3.0%
Herman Cain    0.4%


An enthusiastic Mike Huckabee greets the press after his victory speech. In his speech, he tells his supporters that in order to defeat the "misguided liberal Obama agenda, [Republicans] must elect a candidate who has always supported common sense small government principles. Not someone who supports them when they're convenient."

In Mitt Romney's concession speech, he claims that he is the only candidate able to beat Obama and that  "the American public needs a president they can relate to, not someone they fear."

Next stop...New Hampshire. Romney has a 48% to 24% lead over Huckabee. But polling indicates that Huckabee can make progress. Ovide Lamontagne and Bill Binnie, former senatorial candidates in NH have endorsed Huckabee. Rick Santorum and Haley Barbour have also endorsed Huckabee. Romney has received the endorsement of Mitch Daniels.

Current polling:
National:

Obama  49%
Huckabee 44%

Obama 49%
Romney 45%

Obama Approval: 47%, Disapproval 51%

New Hampshire:
Romney 48%
Huckabee 24%

Nevada:
Romney 50%
Huckabee 25%

South Carolina:
Huckabee 49%
Romney   33%

....As the New Hampshire Primary gets closer, polls show Romney with a commanding (but closer) lead over Huckabee...Stay tuned!

[feeblepizza]

Looks promising. Keep going.

[MorningInAmerica]

How is it that there are only 2 remaining candidates after Iowa? So it's just Huckabee vs. Romney from here on out? God help us.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

How is it that there are only 2 remaining candidates after Iowa? So it's just Huckabee vs. Romney from here on out? God help us.

That does seem strange.

Go Romney!

Aren't you also doing the Bloomberg timeline?

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Why would the liberal Republican Binnie endorse Huckabee? Does he really not like Romney ITTL?

Regardless, rooting for Mike, though I am bummed that Johnson didn't get any traction.

[Progressive]

This timeline will involve Mike Bloomberg. And Binnie announced support for Huckabee because of Romney's "inability to deny government takeover of health care in his true home state of Massachusetts."

There are only two candidates, yes somewhat unrealistic, but the other candidates were extremely underfunded.

Some other news-

The Tea Party is alive in well in 2012. Expect trouble for Snowe, Lugar, Hatch, etc. Lieberman will be interesting. Stay tuned!

[Progressive]

New Hampshire Primary 99.9% Reporting
Mitt Romney         55.8%     (X)
Mike Huckabee     44.2%

Mitt Romney's campaign celebrates a 12-point victory in New Hampshire. Romney's campaign is touting this as a double-digit "resounding victory," but many pundits agree that Huckabee gained strong momentum with receiving more than 44% of the vote. Independents voted for Romney 66% to 33%,  Republicans voted for Romney 53% to 47% and those who identified themselves as "very or extremely conservative" gave Huckabee the edge 54% to 46%.

[Progressive]

Late January 2012

The night before the Nevada Caucuses (which was moved to same day as SC Primaries) and the South Carolina Primaries, national polls have been released.

GOP Primary (National)
CNN: Huckabee 45% to Romney 44%
NYT: Huckabee 48% to Romney 46%
Fox: Huckabee and Romney tied at 47%
Reuters: Huckabee 49% to Romney 46%
YouGov: Huckabee 50% to Romney 46%

GOP Nevada
Las Vegas Sun: Romney 53% to Huckabee 40%
University of Nevada-Las Vegas: Romney 53% to Huckabee 39%
CNN: Romney 54% to Huckabee 40%
LA Times: Romney 54% to Huckabee 40%

GOP South Carolina
CNN: Huckabee 58% to Romney 36%
Charleston Gazette: Huckabee 60% to Romney 35%
Fox: Huckabee 59% to Romney 37%
Rasmussen*: Huckabee 63% to Romney 33%
* Considered a heavy advantage for Huckabee considering almost 80% considered themselves "White Born Again"

National Polling:
CNN: Obama 48% to Romney 47%
        Huckabee 49% to Obama 47%
Gallup: Obama with 49%, Huckabee 46%/Romney 45%


Nevada Caucuses 99.3% Reporting
Mitt Romney    58.3% (X)
Mike Huckabee 41.0%


South Carolina Primary 98.9% Reporting
Mike Huckabee 65.3% (X)
Mitt Romney    34.7%

---------------------

The Romney campaign is boasting about its double digit win in Nevada. But Huckabee bested Romne by 30 points in South Carolina. This is an uphill climb for Romney. National polling averages Huckabee with about 50% to Romney's 44% immediately after these contests.

The next contests:

The Orange States: Can Romney make a comeback?  Delegate counts to follow.

Stay tuned!

[Niemeyerite]

Nice but I'd like to see more on the independent revolution TL

[Progressive]

Nice but I'd like to see more on the independent revolution TL

This ties in, I promise!!!

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

So two separate timelines in the same timeline?

Interesting...

[Progressive]

First Round of Primaries


Maine Primary/b]
Mitt Romney    53. 5% (X)
Mike Huckabee 46.5%


Vermont Primary
Mitt Romney   58.2%     (X)
Mike Huckabee 40.0%


Rhode Island Primary
Mitt Romney     59.2% (X)
Mike Huckabee  38.4%


Delaware Primary
Mike Huckabee   49.7% (X)
Mitt Romney      48.6%


Washington DC Primary
Mitt Romney      57.0%    (X)
Mike Huckabee   41.6%


West Virginia Primary
Mike Huckabee  59.3%  (X)
Mitt Romney     38.4%


More Primaries from this round in the next post!

[Niemeyerite]

Thanks, nice updates!! but I'll say this again: your 2010 TL ias awesome. I'd like an update there, please . And I liked your idea: 2 TLs in one =)

[Progressive]

Primary Updates

Huckabee Victories
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Montana
Alaska

Romney Victories
Idaho
Wyoming
Puerto Rico
Guam
US VI
New Mexico

Huckabee comes out with lead against Romney.

NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg makes a statement:

The voters of the Republican Party have chosen two candidates as potential nominees. One who is so far right that he can not unite the country, and one who is so unappealing that he gives off the aura of a car salesman. I am growing frustrated with our choices. I am strongly considering a bid for president. I will decide in the coming weeks.

Nat'l Polling:
Obama         37%
Huckabee     30%
Bloomberg    24%

Obama          35%
Romney         29%
Bloomberg     27%

Obama           48%
Huckabee       44%

Obama           48%
Romney         43%

Obama                    49%
Bloomberg (ind)       43%

Obama                     48%
Bloomberg (GOP)      39% 

Potential VP selections if Bloomberg runs: Front-runners: former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura, Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee, former Congressman and TV personality Joe Scarborough, and CEO Donald Trump. Medium/Long Shots: U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman, former NYC Mayor Ed Koch, former U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel (who said he would endorse Bloomberg if he ran) and former E-Bay CEO Meg Whitman.

Stay tuned for more primary updates...PLUS! Senate primaries. You WON'T want to miss this!

[Niemeyerite]

Bloomberg/whitman or bloomberg/hagel would be a very strong ticket. even sam nunn would make a good VP candidate. and I think chafee could be a good pick, too, but probably he wants to stay more than 2 years in the governorship.

[Progressive]

Second Round of Primaries

Huckabee Victories
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Missouri
Arkansas
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Kentucky
Maryland
Minnesota

Romney Victories
Wisconsin
Oregon
Washington State
Utah

Huckabee upset Romney in two states: Maryland and Minnesota. He brought out the Evangelical and far-right base enough to surpass Romney.

Average polling AFTER this round of elections:

National GOP:
Huckabee 48%
Romney   45%

This is the first time that Mike Huckabee has performed better than did Romney nationally.

NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg makes another address: "Republicans ought to consider adding a more moderate candidate to the roster during the convention. Perhaps delegates can rebel against the two choices. I am growing more and more alarmed with the possibility of a Huckabee/Romney or Obama presidency for four years. We need a change. It's time for America to speak up."

According to polls, Bloomberg would edge both Republicans but fall short of reaching President Obama. There are some (unsubstantiated) rumors that the GOP nominee will drop out and endorse Bloomberg so long as Bloomberg chooses the GOP nominee as the VP pick. The RNC strongly denies these rumors and Bloomberg has stated that "under no circumstances will Romney and Huckabee be on my ticket if I do choose to run."


Bloomberg discusses potential bid with prominent members of African American community.

Stay tuned! The final two rounds will be combined into one. And the results of some shocking Senate primaries will be released!!!!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

But isn't Bloomberg elected to the Senate in your Independent Timeline, and aren't these two timelines connected?

[Progressive]

But isn't Bloomberg elected to the Senate in your Independent Timeline, and aren't these two timelines connected?

They're connected in the sense that Bloomberg has a major influence along with other independents in this election but the specifics of the other timeline don't hold true here.

[Progressive]

Final Round of Primaries

Huckabee Victories
Virginia
North Carolina
Tennessee
Georgia
Florida
Indiana
Ohio
Pennsylvania (tied percentage, more votes however)
Illinois
Arizona

Romney Victories
New York
Michigan
Massachusetts
Connecticut
New Jersey
California

Huckabee finishes on top in terms of both popular and delegate vote, however, he has failed to secure the number of delegates necessary to automatically clinch the nomination. Romney is putting up a fight claiming that "the Republican Party is at a crossroads. We can become the party of the South, the Born Again Southern GOP, or we can become the American Republican Party, the one that's an umbrella of different backgrounds."

Now we will discuss notable primary results for U.S. Senate.

Maine
Chandler E. Woodcock  49% (X)
Olympia Snowe*          34%
Scott D'Amboise          17%

Snowe lost badly to Tea Party backed Chandler E. Woodcock. Woodcock will face Chellie Pingree in the general election. Pingree leads 50%-43% in the race. Snowe has refused to back Woodcock, although Susan Collins has backed the GOP nominee.

NEXT SENATE RACES AND OTHER UPDATES POSTED SOON!

[Miles]

Interesting that Snowe actually stayed a Republican.

I would think Pingree would be leading by a larger margin, but thats just me.